2015 week 15 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 15 – 21, 2015

j-mart

122.22

Horgan

94.07

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.60 points left. Optimal 136.82 vs. actual 122.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	10.06	Aaron Rodgers	10.06
WR	Pierre Garcon	10.90	Antonio Brown	41.36
WR	Antonio Brown	41.36	Cecil Shorts	0.00
WR	Cecil Shorts	0.00	Pierre Garcon	10.90
RB	Brandon Bolden	6.40	Bilal Powell	17.40
RB	Latavius Murray	8.50	Latavius Murray	8.50
TE	Travis Kelce	10.30	Ben Watson	13.90
W/R/T	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	10.40	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	10.40
K	Justin Tucker	2.00	Justin Tucker	2.00
DEF	Chiefs	22.30	Chiefs	22.30

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 41.36 points (33.8% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.00 points left. Optimal 108.07 vs. actual 94.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	27.30	Tyrod Taylor	27.30
WR	Brandon Marshall	9.40	Demaryius Thomas	20.60
WR	Demaryius Thomas	20.60	Tyler Lockett	15.92
WR	Tyler Lockett	15.92	Brandon Marshall	9.40
RB	Darren Sproles	4.24	James Starks	4.10
RB	Eddie Lacy	2.30	Darren Sproles	4.24
TE	Coby Fleener	1.70	Coby Fleener	1.70
W/R/T	Matt Jones	4.10	Dorial Green-Beckham	16.30
K	Mason Crosby	10.00	Mason Crosby	10.00
DEF	Bills	-1.49	Bills	-1.49

Carried by One Guy: Tyrod Taylor, 27.30 points (28.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Brown scored 41.36; zeroing that score creates a win.

Consolation

Dec 15 – 21, 2015

Demich

116.52

Krajcik

171.22

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.90 points left. Optimal 122.42 vs. actual 116.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	13.34	Jay Cutler	13.34
WR	Brandon LaFell	10.80	Marvin Jones Jr.	10.90
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.02	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.02
WR	Allen Robinson	13.20	Allen Robinson	13.20
RB	Matt Forte	19.40	Duke Johnson	11.00
RB	Melvin Gordon III	5.20	Matt Forte	19.40
TE	Antonio Gates	11.80	Antonio Gates	11.80
W/R/T	Doug Baldwin	18.50	Doug Baldwin	18.50
K	Sebastian Janikowski	7.00	Sebastian Janikowski	7.00
DEF	Panthers	0.26	Panthers	0.26

Carried by One Guy: Matt Forte, 19.40 points (16.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.50 points left. Optimal 193.72 vs. actual 171.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	12.54	Alex Smith	12.54
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	24.38	Jordan Matthews	27.90
WR	Jeremy Maclin	14.50	Ted Ginn Jr.	24.38
WR	Allen Hurns	5.40	Jeremy Maclin	14.50
RB	LeSean McCoy	4.20	David Johnson	44.90
RB	David Johnson	44.90	LeSean McCoy	4.20
TE	Delanie Walker	19.40	Delanie Walker	19.40
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	27.60	Sammy Watkins	27.60
K	Stephen Gostkowski	17.00	Stephen Gostkowski	17.00
DEF	Eagles	1.30	Eagles	1.30

Carried by One Guy: David Johnson, 44.90 points (26.2% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 15 – 21, 2015

Martin

136.49

Josh

147.49

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.08 points left. Optimal 161.57 vs. actual 136.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	45.60	Cam Newton	45.60
WR	Kamar Aiken	24.80	Kamar Aiken	24.80
WR	Travis Benjamin	5.00	Travis Benjamin	5.00
WR	Donte Moncrief	13.60	Donte Moncrief	13.60
RB	Jeremy Hill	13.10	Jeremy Hill	13.10
RB	Antonio Andrews	9.76	Antonio Andrews	9.76
TE	Jacob Tamme	0.00	Rob Gronkowski	13.90
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	-0.48	Alfred Blue	10.70
K	Caleb Sturgis	5.00	Caleb Sturgis	5.00
DEF	Patriots	20.11	Patriots	20.11

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 45.60 points (33.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Danny Woodhead scored 33.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.10 points left. Optimal 162.59 vs. actual 147.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	21.02	Jameis Winston	21.02
WR	Golden Tate	19.92	Golden Tate	19.92
WR	A.J. Green	4.20	Rueben Randle	12.70
WR	Brandin Cooks	25.64	Brandin Cooks	25.64
RB	Danny Woodhead	33.00	Giovani Bernard	7.10
RB	Giovani Bernard	7.10	Danny Woodhead	33.00
TE	Gary Barnidge	10.40	Gary Barnidge	10.40
W/R/T	Javorius Allen	-0.20	Frank Gore	6.40
K	Blair Walsh	10.00	Blair Walsh	10.00
DEF	Packers	16.41	Packers	16.41

Carried by One Guy: Danny Woodhead, 33.00 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 15 – 21, 2015

Fischer

92.41

Joe Shore

118.46

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.70 points left. Optimal 116.11 vs. actual 92.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	24.28	Blake Bortles	24.28
WR	T.Y. Hilton	4.40	Jarvis Landry	9.72
WR	Jarvis Landry	9.72	John Brown	11.30
WR	John Brown	11.30	Willie Snead IV	12.60
RB	Adrian Peterson	6.30	Christine Michael	8.40
RB	Lamar Miller	3.40	Cameron Artis-Payne	10.30
TE	Richard Rodgers	1.20	Kyle Rudolph	3.10
W/R/T	Willie Snead IV	12.60	Rashad Jennings	17.20
K	Chandler Catanzaro	8.00	Chandler Catanzaro	8.00
DEF	Texans	11.21	Texans	11.21

Carried by One Guy: Blake Bortles, 24.28 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.10 points left. Optimal 132.56 vs. actual 118.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	18.68	Tom Brady	18.68
WR	Michael Crabtree	10.00	Julio Jones	24.30
WR	Julio Jones	24.30	Martavis Bryant	13.70
WR	Martavis Bryant	13.70	Michael Crabtree	10.00
RB	Tim Hightower	10.00	Chris Ivory	4.70
RB	Chris Ivory	4.70	Tim Hightower	10.00
TE	Will Tye	12.80	Will Tye	12.80
W/R/T	Michael Floyd	9.50	DeVante Parker	10.70
K	Graham Gano	9.00	Graham Gano	9.00
DEF	Broncos	5.78	Cardinals	18.68

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 24.30 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 15 – 21, 2015

Miller

138.14

Kev

161.36

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.60 points left. Optimal 167.74 vs. actual 138.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	15.26	Philip Rivers	22.44
WR	Eric Decker	14.50	Eric Decker	14.50
WR	Alshon Jeffery	7.50	Tavon Austin	20.80
WR	Tavon Austin	20.80	James Jones	17.20
RB	Denard Robinson	11.40	Denard Robinson	11.40
RB	Charcandrick West	15.50	Charcandrick West	15.50
TE	Jordan Reed	23.90	Jordan Reed	23.90
W/R/T	Ryan Mathews	4.60	Joique Bell	17.32
K	Cairo Santos	12.00	Cairo Santos	12.00
DEF	Jets	12.68	Jets	12.68

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Reed, 23.90 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drew Brees scored 28.74; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.14 points left. Optimal 176.50 vs. actual 161.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	28.74	Drew Brees	28.74
WR	DeSean Jackson	26.30	DeAndre Hopkins	13.40
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	13.40	Mike Evans	22.20
WR	Mike Evans	22.20	DeSean Jackson	26.30
RB	Doug Martin	10.20	Doug Martin	10.20
RB	Bryce Brown	4.30	Ameer Abdullah	17.36
TE	Greg Olsen	16.90	Greg Olsen	16.90
W/R/T	Ameer Abdullah	17.36	Stefon Diggs	19.44
K	Stephen Hauschka	12.00	Stephen Hauschka	12.00
DEF	Seahawks	9.96	Seahawks	9.96

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 28.74 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 15 – 21, 2015

Adam

96.71

Big Hut

165.71

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.44 points left. Optimal 119.15 vs. actual 96.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	14.96	Ben Roethlisberger	24.90
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	5.80	Dez Bryant	13.00
WR	Dez Bryant	13.00	Randall Cobb	8.30
WR	Randall Cobb	8.30	Larry Fitzgerald	5.80
RB	Darren McFadden	14.30	James White	17.20
RB	James White	17.20	Darren McFadden	14.30
TE	Julius Thomas	10.90	Julius Thomas	10.90
W/R/T	Shaun Draughn	4.70	Shane Vereen	17.20
K	Matt Prater	5.00	Matt Prater	5.00
DEF	Lions	2.55	Lions	2.55

Carried by One Guy: James White, 17.20 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.92 points left. Optimal 181.63 vs. actual 165.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	22.06	Eli Manning	24.20
WR	Calvin Johnson	2.40	Emmanuel Sanders	33.50
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	33.50	Markus Wheaton	16.18
WR	Amari Cooper	29.00	Amari Cooper	29.00
RB	DeAngelo Williams	14.10	Todd Gurley	14.90
RB	Todd Gurley	14.90	DeAngelo Williams	14.10
TE	Heath Miller	2.70	Heath Miller	2.70
W/R/T	Devonta Freeman	19.60	Devonta Freeman	19.60
K	Chris Boswell	10.00	Chris Boswell	10.00
DEF	Bengals	17.45	Bengals	17.45

Carried by One Guy: Emmanuel Sanders, 33.50 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

2015 week 15 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Consolation

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Consolation

Martin lineup

Josh lineup

Playoff

Fischer lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Playoff

Miller lineup

Kev lineup

Playoff

Adam lineup

Big Hut lineup