2015 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 20 – 26, 2015

j-mart

104.76

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Kev

140.71

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.50 points left. Optimal 110.26 vs. actual 104.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	18.74	Matthew Stafford	18.74
WR	Pierre Garcon	8.00	Antonio Brown	18.04
WR	Antonio Brown	18.04	Kendall Wright	12.60
WR	Kendall Wright	12.60	Pierre Garcon	8.00
RB	Justin Forsett	11.90	Latavius Murray	15.10
RB	Latavius Murray	15.10	Justin Forsett	11.90
TE	Travis Kelce	9.80	Travis Kelce	9.80
W/R/T	Joseph Randle	2.40	Ben Watson	7.90
K	Justin Tucker	5.00	Justin Tucker	5.00
DEF	Steelers	3.18	Steelers	3.18

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 18.74 points (17.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.40 points left. Optimal 145.11 vs. actual 140.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	11.80	Drew Brees	11.80
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	8.00	DeAndre Hopkins	8.00
WR	Mike Evans	28.40	Mike Evans	28.40
WR	Stefon Diggs	22.70	Stefon Diggs	22.70
RB	Doug Martin	20.60	Doug Martin	20.60
RB	Le'Veon Bell	17.70	Le'Veon Bell	17.70
TE	Greg Olsen	8.00	Greg Olsen	8.00
W/R/T	Alfred Morris	1.20	Charles Sims	5.60
K	Josh Lambo	9.00	Josh Lambo	9.00
DEF	Seahawks	13.31	Seahawks	13.31

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 28.40 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 20 – 26, 2015

Horgan

104.02

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

145.84

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.20 points left. Optimal 105.22 vs. actual 104.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	27.58	Ryan Tannehill	27.58
WR	Nate Washington	31.20	Nate Washington	31.20
WR	Brandon Marshall	8.70	Brandon Marshall	8.70
WR	Mike Wallace	5.60	Mike Wallace	5.60
RB	LeGarrette Blount	-0.30	Isaiah Crowell	0.90
RB	Matt Jones	6.60	Matt Jones	6.60
TE	Jimmy Graham	4.10	Jimmy Graham	4.10
W/R/T	Theo Riddick	6.30	Theo Riddick	6.30
K	Adam Vinatieri	3.00	Adam Vinatieri	3.00
DEF	Bills	11.24	Bills	11.24

Carried by One Guy: Nate Washington, 31.20 points (29.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.16 points left. Optimal 165.00 vs. actual 145.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	31.70	Tom Brady	31.70
WR	Julian Edelman	8.44	Julio Jones	19.70
WR	Julio Jones	19.70	Michael Floyd	13.40
WR	Keenan Allen	13.40	Keenan Allen	13.40
RB	Chris Ivory	12.30	Chris Ivory	12.30
RB	DeMarco Murray	8.00	Chris Johnson	20.20
TE	Jordan Cameron	3.30	Jordan Cameron	3.30
W/R/T	Martavis Bryant	13.30	Michael Crabtree	15.30
K	Josh Brown	10.00	Josh Brown	10.00
DEF	Rams	25.70	Rams	25.70

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 31.70 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 20 – 26, 2015

Martin

86.86

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Adam

101.93

Rank 11; +4.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.69 points left. Optimal 88.55 vs. actual 86.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	13.88	Cam Newton	13.88
WR	Kamar Aiken	1.10	Kamar Aiken	1.10
WR	Rishard Matthews	15.18	Rishard Matthews	15.18
WR	Donte Moncrief	11.40	Donte Moncrief	11.40
RB	Carlos Hyde	4.00	Carlos Hyde	4.00
RB	Antonio Andrews	5.70	Antonio Andrews	5.70
TE	Rob Gronkowski	24.30	Rob Gronkowski	24.30
W/R/T	Travis Benjamin	4.78	Travis Benjamin	4.78
K	Matt Bryant	3.00	Matt Bryant	3.00
DEF	Commanders	3.52	Patriots	5.21

Carried by One Guy: Rob Gronkowski, 24.30 points (28.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Arian Foster scored 27.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.90 points left. Optimal 114.83 vs. actual 101.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	19.20	Carson Palmer	19.20
WR	Anquan Boldin	5.40	Willie Snead IV	4.00
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	5.40	Anquan Boldin	5.40
WR	Willie Snead IV	4.00	Larry Fitzgerald	5.40
RB	Jonathan Stewart	14.50	Jonathan Stewart	14.50
RB	Arian Foster	27.00	Arian Foster	27.00
TE	Julius Thomas	0.90	Julius Thomas	0.90
W/R/T	Shane Vereen	6.70	Ryan Mathews	19.60
K	Chris Boswell	6.00	Chris Boswell	6.00
DEF	Dolphins	12.83	Dolphins	12.83

Carried by One Guy: Arian Foster, 27.00 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 20 – 26, 2015

Fischer

157.75

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller

153.28

Rank 2; -4.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.84 points left. Optimal 181.59 vs. actual 157.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	12.98	Blake Bortles	12.98
WR	T.Y. Hilton	31.00	T.Y. Hilton	31.00
WR	Jarvis Landry	23.50	Jarvis Landry	23.50
WR	John Brown	14.50	John Brown	14.50
RB	Adrian Peterson	12.50	Lamar Miller	39.10
RB	Lamar Miller	39.10	Darren McFadden	25.20
TE	Charles Clay	4.10	Charles Clay	4.10
W/R/T	Ameer Abdullah	5.88	Tyler Lockett	17.02
K	Chandler Catanzaro	5.00	Chandler Catanzaro	5.00
DEF	Cardinals	9.19	Cardinals	9.19

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Miller, 39.10 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 153.28 vs. actual 153.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	27.44	Philip Rivers	27.44
WR	Vincent Jackson	1.80	Eric Decker	12.40
WR	Eric Decker	12.40	Tavon Austin	8.70
WR	Tavon Austin	8.70	Vincent Jackson	1.80
RB	Mark Ingram II	23.80	Mark Ingram II	23.80
RB	T.J. Yeldon	20.90	T.J. Yeldon	20.90
TE	Jordan Reed	24.70	Jordan Reed	24.70
W/R/T	Charcandrick West	21.90	Charcandrick West	21.90
K	Stephen Hauschka	10.00	Stephen Hauschka	10.00
DEF	Jets	1.64	Jets	1.64

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 27.44 points (17.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Lamar Miller scored 39.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 20 – 26, 2015

Krajcik

102.88

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh

135.68

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.70 points left. Optimal 115.58 vs. actual 102.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	4.96	Colin Kaepernick	4.96
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	12.80	Allen Hurns	12.30
WR	Jordan Matthews	2.90	Steve Smith	10.30
WR	Allen Hurns	12.30	Ted Ginn Jr.	12.80
RB	Marshawn Lynch	20.20	Marshawn Lynch	20.20
RB	LeSean McCoy	11.40	LeSean McCoy	11.40
TE	Delanie Walker	9.00	Delanie Walker	9.00
W/R/T	Steve Smith	10.30	Khiry Robinson	15.60
K	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00
DEF	Eagles	7.02	Eagles	7.02

Carried by One Guy: Marshawn Lynch, 20.20 points (19.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.22 points left. Optimal 140.90 vs. actual 135.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	26.02	Andrew Luck	26.02
WR	Golden Tate	2.58	Rueben Randle	7.80
WR	Brandin Cooks	11.10	Brandin Cooks	11.10
WR	Jamison Crowder	7.38	Jamison Crowder	7.38
RB	Frank Gore	10.00	Frank Gore	10.00
RB	Danny Woodhead	27.60	Danny Woodhead	27.60
TE	Gary Barnidge	15.10	Gary Barnidge	15.10
W/R/T	Ladarius Green	16.50	Ladarius Green	16.50
K	Caleb Sturgis	10.00	Caleb Sturgis	10.00
DEF	Falcons	9.40	Falcons	9.40

Carried by One Guy: Danny Woodhead, 27.60 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 20 – 26, 2015

Demich

102.32

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

121.69

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.60 points left. Optimal 102.92 vs. actual 102.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	20.70	Ryan Fitzpatrick	20.70
WR	Doug Baldwin	2.90	Brandon LaFell	3.50
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	5.50	Odell Beckham Jr.	5.50
WR	Allen Robinson	18.80	Allen Robinson	18.80
RB	Branden Oliver	10.40	Branden Oliver	10.40
RB	Duke Johnson	12.50	Duke Johnson	12.50
TE	Jason Witten	10.30	Jason Witten	10.30
W/R/T	Melvin Gordon III	2.90	Melvin Gordon III	2.90
K	Cairo Santos	9.00	Cairo Santos	9.00
DEF	Panthers	9.32	Panthers	9.32

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Fitzpatrick, 20.70 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Todd Gurley scored 32.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.10 points left. Optimal 126.79 vs. actual 121.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	6.40	Eli Manning	6.40
WR	Roddy White	6.30	Amari Cooper	23.80
WR	Calvin Johnson	17.10	Roddy White	6.30
WR	Amari Cooper	23.80	Calvin Johnson	17.10
RB	Devonta Freeman	16.00	Devonta Freeman	16.00
RB	Todd Gurley	32.30	Todd Gurley	32.30
TE	Larry Donnell	3.80	Larry Donnell	3.80
W/R/T	Rashad Jennings	1.90	Stevie Johnson	7.00
K	Nick Folk	12.00	Nick Folk	12.00
DEF	Texans	2.09	Texans	2.09

Carried by One Guy: Todd Gurley, 32.30 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–4	2.727	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	2–5	1.545	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Martin	1–6	1.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	6–1	4.818	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Miller	5–2	5.091	-3.5	-0.318	1 / 2
Adam	4–3	3.000	+4.5	+0.409	1 / 0
Joe Shore	7–0	6.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	5–2	4.727	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Demich	1–6	2.545	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Krajcik	2–5	3.364	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Big Hut	3–4	3.545	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Josh	3–4	3.000	+2.0	+0.182	1 / 1

2015 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7