2015 week 9 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 3 – 9, 2015

j-mart

115.91

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

156.32

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 115.91 vs. actual 115.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	34.96	Aaron Rodgers	34.96
WR	Andre Johnson	0.00	Antonio Brown	39.10
WR	Pierre Garcon	9.00	Andre Johnson	0.00
WR	Antonio Brown	39.10	Pierre Garcon	9.00
RB	Pierre Thomas	1.50	Latavius Murray	8.50
RB	Latavius Murray	8.50	Pierre Thomas	1.50
TE	Ben Watson	8.50	Ben Watson	8.50
W/R/T	C.J. Spiller	1.50	C.J. Spiller	1.50
K	Matt Bryant	9.00	Matt Bryant	9.00
DEF	Steelers	3.85	Steelers	3.85

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 39.10 points (33.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.44 points left. Optimal 181.76 vs. actual 156.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	21.86	Andy Dalton	21.86
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	3.36	Sammy Watkins	28.80
WR	Jordan Matthews	25.80	Jordan Matthews	25.80
WR	Allen Hurns	22.70	Allen Hurns	22.70
RB	LeSean McCoy	20.90	Khiry Robinson	0.00
RB	Khiry Robinson	0.00	LeSean McCoy	20.90
TE	Martellus Bennett	15.70	Martellus Bennett	15.70
W/R/T	Delanie Walker	27.00	Delanie Walker	27.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00
DEF	Eagles	12.00	Eagles	12.00

Carried by One Guy: Delanie Walker, 27.00 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 3 – 9, 2015

Horgan

79.26

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Demich

128.22

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.10 points left. Optimal 102.36 vs. actual 79.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	15.64	Tyrod Taylor	15.64
WR	Malcom Floyd	0.00	Demaryius Thomas	7.50
WR	Brandon Marshall	12.40	Brandon Marshall	12.40
WR	Demaryius Thomas	7.50	Mike Wallace	0.90
RB	LeGarrette Blount	20.90	James Starks	21.20
RB	Eddie Lacy	-1.00	LeGarrette Blount	20.90
TE	Jacob Tamme	9.10	Jacob Tamme	9.10
W/R/T	Matt Jones	3.40	Matt Jones	3.40
K	Mason Crosby	3.00	Mason Crosby	3.00
DEF	Bills	8.32	Bills	8.32

Carried by One Guy: LeGarrette Blount, 20.90 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.26 points left. Optimal 150.48 vs. actual 128.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	15.24	Jay Cutler	19.60
WR	Brandon LaFell	14.70	Brandon LaFell	14.70
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.00	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.00
WR	Allen Robinson	17.10	Allen Robinson	17.10
RB	Duke Johnson	10.80	Duke Johnson	10.80
RB	Jeremy Langford	23.70	Jeremy Langford	23.70
TE	Antonio Gates	9.90	Antonio Gates	9.90
W/R/T	Melvin Gordon III	7.10	Karlos Williams	25.00
K	Sebastian Janikowski	5.00	Sebastian Janikowski	5.00
DEF	Panthers	7.68	Panthers	7.68

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Langford, 23.70 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 3 – 9, 2015

Martin

98.90

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Kev

105.22

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 98.90 vs. actual 98.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	33.58	Cam Newton	33.58
WR	Travis Benjamin	3.70	Travis Benjamin	3.70
WR	Rishard Matthews	7.40	Rishard Matthews	7.40
WR	Donte Moncrief	4.50	Donte Moncrief	4.50
RB	Jeremy Hill	5.70	Jeremy Hill	5.70
RB	Antonio Andrews	11.60	Antonio Andrews	11.60
TE	Rob Gronkowski	6.70	Rob Gronkowski	6.70
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	5.56	Danny Amendola	5.56
K	Caleb Sturgis	11.00	Caleb Sturgis	11.00
DEF	Patriots	9.16	Patriots	9.16

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 33.58 points (34.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drew Brees scored 33.38; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.90 points left. Optimal 113.12 vs. actual 105.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	33.38	Drew Brees	33.38
WR	DeSean Jackson	3.00	Mike Evans	19.00
WR	Mike Evans	19.00	Stefon Diggs	5.70
WR	Stefon Diggs	5.70	DeSean Jackson	3.00
RB	Doug Martin	3.30	Doug Martin	3.30
RB	Charles Sims	6.70	Charles Sims	6.70
TE	Greg Olsen	14.60	Greg Olsen	14.60
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	0.00	Isaiah Crowell	7.90
K	Josh Lambo	5.00	Josh Lambo	5.00
DEF	Giants	14.54	Giants	14.54

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 33.38 points (31.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 3 – 9, 2015

Fischer

128.82

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Joe Shore

131.24

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.70 points left. Optimal 139.52 vs. actual 128.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	23.36	Ben Roethlisberger	23.36
WR	Marques Colston	5.20	T.Y. Hilton	10.70
WR	Robert Woods	0.00	Jarvis Landry	15.20
WR	Jarvis Landry	15.20	Marques Colston	5.20
RB	Adrian Peterson	23.30	Lamar Miller	29.60
RB	Lamar Miller	29.60	Adrian Peterson	23.30
TE	Charles Clay	1.10	Charles Clay	1.10
W/R/T	Darren McFadden	14.70	Darren McFadden	14.70
K	Graham Gano	12.00	Graham Gano	12.00
DEF	Vikings	4.36	Vikings	4.36

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Miller, 29.60 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DeMarco Murray scored 25.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.66 points left. Optimal 159.90 vs. actual 131.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	17.86	Matt Ryan	18.32
WR	Julian Edelman	11.96	Julio Jones	20.70
WR	Julio Jones	20.70	Martavis Bryant	10.60
WR	Martavis Bryant	10.60	Julian Edelman	11.96
RB	Chris Ivory	18.30	Chris Ivory	18.30
RB	DeMarco Murray	25.10	DeMarco Murray	25.10
TE	Jordan Cameron	1.10	Jordan Cameron	1.10
W/R/T	Ronnie Hillman	0.10	Michael Crabtree	28.30
K	Josh Brown	17.00	Josh Brown	17.00
DEF	Broncos	8.52	Broncos	8.52

Carried by One Guy: DeMarco Murray, 25.10 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 3 – 9, 2015

Miller

140.71

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Adam

118.62

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 140.71 vs. actual 140.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	15.20	Philip Rivers	15.20
WR	Eric Decker	16.90	Eric Decker	16.90
WR	Alshon Jeffery	22.10	Alshon Jeffery	22.10
WR	Tavon Austin	10.64	Tavon Austin	10.64
RB	Mark Ingram II	11.60	Mark Ingram II	11.60
RB	T.J. Yeldon	11.60	T.J. Yeldon	11.60
TE	Tyler Eifert	25.80	Tyler Eifert	25.80
W/R/T	Jordan Reed	9.30	Jordan Reed	9.30
K	Robbie Gould	2.00	Robbie Gould	2.00
DEF	Jets	15.57	Jets	15.57

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Eifert, 25.80 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.40 points left. Optimal 129.02 vs. actual 118.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	28.34	Derek Carr	28.34
WR	Dez Bryant	20.90	Dez Bryant	20.90
WR	Randall Cobb	17.90	Randall Cobb	17.90
WR	Willie Snead IV	12.50	Willie Snead IV	12.50
RB	Jonathan Stewart	7.30	Ryan Mathews	12.70
RB	Dion Lewis	7.30	Shane Vereen	12.30
TE	Julius Thomas	2.90	Julius Thomas	2.90
W/R/T	Davante Adams	14.80	Davante Adams	14.80
K	Brandon McManus	5.00	Brandon McManus	5.00
DEF	Dolphins	1.68	Dolphins	1.68

Carried by One Guy: Derek Carr, 28.34 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyler Eifert scored 25.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 3 – 9, 2015

Big Hut

157.74

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh

122.69

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 157.74 vs. actual 157.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	12.42	Eli Manning	12.42
WR	Stevie Johnson	10.30	Emmanuel Sanders	18.00
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	18.00	Amari Cooper	18.30
WR	Amari Cooper	18.30	Stevie Johnson	10.30
RB	Devonta Freeman	17.90	Devonta Freeman	17.90
RB	Todd Gurley	18.40	Todd Gurley	18.40
TE	Heath Miller	4.70	Heath Miller	4.70
W/R/T	DeAngelo Williams	39.50	DeAngelo Williams	39.50
K	Dan Bailey	11.00	Dan Bailey	11.00
DEF	Bengals	7.22	Bengals	7.22

Carried by One Guy: DeAngelo Williams, 39.50 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.88 points left. Optimal 123.57 vs. actual 122.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	21.48	Andrew Luck	21.48
WR	A.J. Green	7.30	Rueben Randle	12.50
WR	Rueben Randle	12.50	Brandin Cooks	15.10
WR	Brandin Cooks	15.10	Jamison Crowder	8.18
RB	Frank Gore	16.70	Frank Gore	16.70
RB	Danny Woodhead	20.10	Danny Woodhead	20.10
TE	Gary Barnidge	4.50	Gary Barnidge	4.50
W/R/T	Giovani Bernard	9.10	Giovani Bernard	9.10
K	Blair Walsh	8.00	Blair Walsh	8.00
DEF	Falcons	7.91	Falcons	7.91

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 21.48 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DeAngelo Williams scored 39.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–5	3.455	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 0
Horgan	2–7	1.909	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Martin	1–8	1.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	6–3	5.545	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Miller	7–2	6.545	-3.5	-0.318	1 / 2
Adam	5–4	4.273	+4.5	+0.409	1 / 0
Joe Shore	9–0	7.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	7–2	5.636	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Demich	2–7	3.273	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Krajcik	3–6	4.273	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Big Hut	5–4	5.364	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Josh	3–6	4.000	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 2

2015 week 9 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Josh lineup

Cumulative totals through week 9