2015 week 16 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 22 – 28, 2015

Martin

67.06

Demich

91.84

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.48 points left. Optimal 79.54 vs. actual 67.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	14.28	Russell Wilson	19.36
WR	Kamar Aiken	10.60	Kamar Aiken	10.60
WR	Travis Benjamin	3.32	Travis Benjamin	3.32
WR	Donte Moncrief	2.50	Donte Moncrief	2.50
RB	Jeremy Hill	7.10	Jeremy Hill	7.10
RB	Antonio Andrews	-1.90	Alfred Blue	5.50
TE	Jacob Tamme	4.90	Jacob Tamme	4.90
W/R/T	Rob Gronkowski	10.60	Rob Gronkowski	10.60
K	Caleb Sturgis	6.00	Caleb Sturgis	6.00
DEF	Patriots	9.66	Patriots	9.66

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 14.28 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Allen Robinson scored 26.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.50 points left. Optimal 116.34 vs. actual 91.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	12.34	Jay Cutler	12.34
WR	Brandon LaFell	3.30	Doug Baldwin	23.80
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	0.00	Marvin Jones Jr.	4.80
WR	Allen Robinson	26.10	Allen Robinson	26.10
RB	Matt Forte	9.20	Jeremy Langford	8.30
RB	Melvin Gordon III	0.00	Matt Forte	9.20
TE	Antonio Gates	2.10	Antonio Gates	2.10
W/R/T	Doug Baldwin	23.80	Karlos Williams	14.70
K	Sebastian Janikowski	9.00	Sebastian Janikowski	9.00
DEF	Panthers	6.00	Panthers	6.00

Carried by One Guy: Allen Robinson, 26.10 points (28.4% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 22 – 28, 2015

Krajcik

128.92

Josh

138.00

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.00 points left. Optimal 148.92 vs. actual 128.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	16.40	Alex Smith	16.40
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	1.40	Jordan Matthews	21.40
WR	Jeremy Maclin	13.40	Allen Hurns	28.70
WR	Allen Hurns	28.70	Jeremy Maclin	13.40
RB	Mike Gillislee	17.90	Mike Gillislee	17.90
RB	David Johnson	20.20	David Johnson	20.20
TE	Delanie Walker	10.40	Delanie Walker	10.40
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	10.90	Sammy Watkins	10.90
K	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00
DEF	Eagles	0.62	Eagles	0.62

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Allen Hurns, 28.70 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Brandin Cooks scored 23.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.09 points left. Optimal 164.09 vs. actual 138.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	18.80	Sam Bradford	19.60
WR	Golden Tate	7.90	A.J. Green	14.20
WR	A.J. Green	14.20	Rueben Randle	15.00
WR	Brandin Cooks	23.80	Brandin Cooks	23.80
RB	Danny Woodhead	14.80	Frank Gore	22.50
RB	Giovani Bernard	6.30	Danny Woodhead	14.80
TE	Gary Barnidge	6.20	Gary Barnidge	6.20
W/R/T	Javorius Allen	19.70	Javorius Allen	19.70
K	Blair Walsh	20.00	Blair Walsh	20.00
DEF	Packers	6.30	Falcons	8.29

Carried by One Guy: Brandin Cooks, 23.80 points (17.2% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 22 – 28, 2015

Fischer

152.29

Miller

108.83

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.20 points left. Optimal 158.49 vs. actual 152.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	31.22	Blake Bortles	31.22
WR	T.Y. Hilton	8.40	Jarvis Landry	16.90
WR	Jarvis Landry	16.90	John Brown	10.00
WR	John Brown	10.00	Willie Snead IV	9.50
RB	Adrian Peterson	20.40	Lamar Miller	15.20
RB	Lamar Miller	15.20	Adrian Peterson	20.40
TE	Kyle Rudolph	12.30	Kyle Rudolph	12.30
W/R/T	Willie Snead IV	9.50	Rashad Jennings	14.60
K	Chandler Catanzaro	6.00	Chandler Catanzaro	6.00
DEF	Texans	22.37	Texans	22.37

Carried by One Guy: Blake Bortles, 31.22 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.70 points left. Optimal 120.53 vs. actual 108.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	23.14	Ryan Fitzpatrick	23.14
WR	Eric Decker	12.20	Eric Decker	12.20
WR	Alshon Jeffery	0.00	Tavon Austin	4.92
WR	Tavon Austin	4.92	James Jones	9.10
RB	Denard Robinson	9.50	Joique Bell	9.20
RB	Charcandrick West	6.60	Denard Robinson	9.50
TE	Jordan Reed	31.40	Jordan Reed	31.40
W/R/T	Ryan Mathews	8.80	Ryan Mathews	8.80
K	Cairo Santos	6.00	Cairo Santos	6.00
DEF	Jets	6.27	Jets	6.27

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Reed, 31.40 points (28.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 22 – 28, 2015

Joe Shore

129.72

Kev

100.82

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.60 points left. Optimal 152.32 vs. actual 129.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	11.14	Matt Ryan	16.34
WR	Michael Crabtree	12.90	Julio Jones	30.30
WR	Julio Jones	30.30	Michael Floyd	16.10
WR	Martavis Bryant	1.50	Michael Crabtree	12.90
RB	Tim Hightower	32.40	DeMarco Murray	12.60
RB	Chris Ivory	6.20	Tim Hightower	32.40
TE	Will Tye	4.30	Will Tye	4.30
W/R/T	Michael Floyd	16.10	Donald Brown	12.50
K	Graham Gano	8.00	Graham Gano	8.00
DEF	Broncos	6.88	Broncos	6.88

Carried by One Guy: Tim Hightower, 32.40 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.02 points left. Optimal 127.84 vs. actual 100.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	30.18	Kirk Cousins	34.20
WR	DeSean Jackson	6.00	DeAndre Hopkins	23.20
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	23.20	Mike Evans	8.10
WR	Mike Evans	8.10	DeSean Jackson	6.00
RB	Doug Martin	8.00	Charles Sims	19.20
RB	Ameer Abdullah	8.18	Ameer Abdullah	8.18
TE	Greg Olsen	6.00	Eric Ebron	6.90
W/R/T	Stefon Diggs	3.90	Isaiah Crowell	14.80
K	Stephen Hauschka	4.00	Stephen Hauschka	4.00
DEF	Seahawks	3.26	Seahawks	3.26

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 30.18 points (29.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tim Hightower scored 32.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

2015 week 16 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

Martin lineup

Demich lineup

Consolation

Krajcik lineup

Josh lineup

Playoff

Fischer lineup

Miller lineup

Playoff

Joe Shore lineup

Kev lineup