2015 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 10 – 16, 2015

j-mart

110.22

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Big Hut

89.78

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.18 points left. Optimal 112.40 vs. actual 110.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	24.12	Aaron Rodgers	24.12
WR	Pierre Garcon	2.00	Antonio Brown	34.90
WR	Antonio Brown	34.90	Cecil Shorts	3.10
WR	Cecil Shorts	3.10	Pierre Garcon	2.00
RB	Justin Forsett	8.40	Latavius Murray	10.20
RB	Latavius Murray	10.20	Justin Forsett	8.40
TE	Travis Kelce	6.10	Travis Kelce	6.10
W/R/T	Ben Watson	3.40	C.J. Spiller	5.58
K	Justin Tucker	2.00	Justin Tucker	2.00
DEF	Steelers	16.00	Steelers	16.00

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 34.90 points (31.7% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.56 points left. Optimal 102.34 vs. actual 89.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	23.44	Eli Manning	23.44
WR	Calvin Johnson	11.10	Amari Cooper	10.40
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	0.00	Calvin Johnson	11.10
WR	Amari Cooper	10.40	Mike Wallace	2.70
RB	DeAngelo Williams	7.40	Todd Gurley	16.40
RB	Todd Gurley	16.40	DeAngelo Williams	7.40
TE	Kyle Rudolph	1.20	Heath Miller	6.00
W/R/T	C.J. Anderson	0.90	Rashad Jennings	5.96
K	Dan Bailey	9.00	Dan Bailey	9.00
DEF	Bengals	9.94	Bengals	9.94

Carried by One Guy: Eli Manning, 23.44 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Brown scored 34.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 10 – 16, 2015

Martin

114.73

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Demich

135.51

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.80 points left. Optimal 117.53 vs. actual 114.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	20.98	Cam Newton	20.98
WR	Kamar Aiken	10.80	Kamar Aiken	10.80
WR	Travis Benjamin	16.10	Travis Benjamin	16.10
WR	Rishard Matthews	12.20	Rishard Matthews	12.20
RB	Jeremy Hill	3.50	Jeremy Hill	3.50
RB	Antonio Andrews	0.80	Alfred Blue	3.60
TE	Rob Gronkowski	21.80	Rob Gronkowski	21.80
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	17.00	Danny Amendola	17.00
K	Caleb Sturgis	5.00	Caleb Sturgis	5.00
DEF	Patriots	6.55	Patriots	6.55

Carried by One Guy: Rob Gronkowski, 21.80 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jeremy Langford scored 35.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.06 points left. Optimal 154.57 vs. actual 135.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Flacco	22.34	Joe Flacco	22.34
WR	Brandon LaFell	7.60	Brandon LaFell	7.60
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	20.40	Odell Beckham Jr.	20.40
WR	Allen Robinson	13.60	Allen Robinson	13.60
RB	Duke Johnson	5.84	Jeremy Langford	35.70
RB	Jeremy Langford	35.70	Karlos Williams	11.50
TE	Jason Witten	6.70	Jason Witten	6.70
W/R/T	Karlos Williams	11.50	Doug Baldwin	24.90
K	Sebastian Janikowski	2.00	Sebastian Janikowski	2.00
DEF	Panthers	9.83	Panthers	9.83

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Langford, 35.70 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 10 – 16, 2015

Fischer

112.00

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Kev

105.60

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.74 points left. Optimal 134.74 vs. actual 112.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	16.02	Derek Carr	19.28
WR	Jarvis Landry	15.48	Jarvis Landry	15.48
WR	John Brown	0.00	Devin Funchess	5.10
WR	Willie Snead IV	0.00	Tyler Lockett	4.28
RB	Adrian Peterson	30.60	Lamar Miller	18.30
RB	Lamar Miller	18.30	Adrian Peterson	30.60
TE	Charles Clay	7.70	Charles Clay	7.70
W/R/T	James White	1.60	Richard Rodgers	11.70
K	Chandler Catanzaro	15.00	Chandler Catanzaro	15.00
DEF	Cardinals	7.30	Cardinals	7.30

Carried by One Guy: Adrian Peterson, 30.60 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.30 points left. Optimal 119.90 vs. actual 105.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	12.36	Drew Brees	12.36
WR	DeSean Jackson	5.40	Chris Givens	11.70
WR	Mike Evans	18.60	Mike Evans	18.60
WR	Stefon Diggs	6.60	Stefon Diggs	6.60
RB	Doug Martin	12.30	Doug Martin	12.30
RB	Charles Sims	4.10	Alfred Morris	12.10
TE	Greg Olsen	12.00	Greg Olsen	12.00
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	14.20	DeAndre Hopkins	14.20
K	Stephen Hauschka	9.00	Stephen Hauschka	9.00
DEF	Seahawks	11.04	Seahawks	11.04

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 18.60 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Adrian Peterson scored 30.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 10 – 16, 2015

Miller

129.69

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

114.97

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.30 points left. Optimal 141.99 vs. actual 129.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	30.96	Kirk Cousins	30.96
WR	Eric Decker	17.50	Eric Decker	17.50
WR	Alshon Jeffery	3.80	Alshon Jeffery	3.80
WR	Tavon Austin	3.62	Tavon Austin	3.62
RB	Mark Ingram II	11.30	Mark Ingram II	11.30
RB	T.J. Yeldon	9.20	T.J. Yeldon	9.20
TE	Tyler Eifert	4.10	Jordan Reed	16.40
W/R/T	Charcandrick West	29.60	Charcandrick West	29.60
K	Robbie Gould	13.00	Robbie Gould	13.00
DEF	Jets	6.61	Jets	6.61

Carried by One Guy: Kirk Cousins, 30.96 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.62 points left. Optimal 149.59 vs. actual 114.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	20.26	Tom Brady	20.26
WR	Michael Crabtree	7.50	Michael Floyd	28.80
WR	Julian Edelman	7.30	Martavis Bryant	26.80
WR	Martavis Bryant	26.80	Michael Crabtree	7.50
RB	Chris Ivory	12.50	Chris Ivory	12.50
RB	DeMarco Murray	14.90	DeMarco Murray	14.90
TE	Eric Ebron	4.80	Zach Ertz	10.30
W/R/T	Chris Johnson	5.80	Ronnie Hillman	12.10
K	Josh Brown	15.00	Josh Brown	15.00
DEF	Broncos	0.11	Rams	1.43

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Martavis Bryant, 26.80 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kirk Cousins scored 30.96; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 10 – 16, 2015

Horgan

115.37

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

88.66

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.16 points left. Optimal 124.53 vs. actual 115.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	11.52	Ryan Tannehill	16.48
WR	Brandon Marshall	9.80	Demaryius Thomas	10.60
WR	Demaryius Thomas	10.60	Nate Washington	4.20
WR	Dorial Green-Beckham	0.00	Brandon Marshall	9.80
RB	James Starks	12.60	James Starks	12.60
RB	LeGarrette Blount	14.70	LeGarrette Blount	14.70
TE	Jimmy Graham	5.60	Jimmy Graham	5.60
W/R/T	Matt Jones	28.20	Matt Jones	28.20
K	Mason Crosby	5.00	Mason Crosby	5.00
DEF	Bills	17.35	Bills	17.35

Carried by One Guy: Matt Jones, 28.20 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.80 points left. Optimal 112.46 vs. actual 88.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	8.98	Andy Dalton	8.98
WR	Jeremy Maclin	3.20	Dwayne Harris	18.78
WR	Jordan Matthews	3.60	Jordan Matthews	3.60
WR	Allen Hurns	14.70	Allen Hurns	14.70
RB	Marshawn Lynch	11.50	Marshawn Lynch	11.50
RB	LeSean McCoy	20.40	LeSean McCoy	20.40
TE	Martellus Bennett	3.30	Delanie Walker	6.70
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	2.90	Ted Ginn Jr.	7.72
K	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00
DEF	Eagles	9.08	Eagles	9.08

Carried by One Guy: LeSean McCoy, 20.40 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matt Jones scored 28.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 10 – 16, 2015

Adam

107.93

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh

108.27

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.54 points left. Optimal 127.47 vs. actual 107.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	22.32	Ben Roethlisberger	28.96
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	20.00	Randall Cobb	7.50
WR	Dez Bryant	7.00	Davante Adams	12.90
WR	Randall Cobb	7.50	Larry Fitzgerald	20.00
RB	Darren McFadden	7.30	Darren McFadden	7.30
RB	Jonathan Stewart	15.10	Jonathan Stewart	15.10
TE	Julius Thomas	3.30	Crockett Gillmore	12.20
W/R/T	Davante Adams	12.90	Ryan Mathews	11.00
K	Brandon McManus	1.00	Brandon McManus	1.00
DEF	Dolphins	11.51	Dolphins	11.51

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Carson Palmer, 22.32 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Brandin Cooks scored 25.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.92 points left. Optimal 116.19 vs. actual 108.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Bradford	13.44	Sam Bradford	13.44
WR	A.J. Green	7.20	A.J. Green	7.20
WR	Rueben Randle	6.60	Brandin Cooks	25.40
WR	Brandin Cooks	25.40	Jamison Crowder	14.52
RB	Giovani Bernard	10.40	Giovani Bernard	10.40
RB	Jay Ajayi	4.80	Jay Ajayi	4.80
TE	Gary Barnidge	15.50	Gary Barnidge	15.50
W/R/T	Golden Tate	9.08	Golden Tate	9.08
K	Blair Walsh	11.00	Blair Walsh	11.00
DEF	Packers	4.85	Packers	4.85

Carried by One Guy: Brandin Cooks, 25.40 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–5	3.909	+1.5	+0.136	3 / 0
Horgan	3–7	2.727	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Martin	1–9	2.545	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Fischer	7–3	6.091	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Miller	8–2	7.455	-3.5	-0.318	1 / 2
Adam	5–5	4.545	+4.5	+0.409	1 / 0
Joe Shore	9–1	8.545	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Kev	7–3	5.818	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Demich	3–7	4.273	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Krajcik	3–7	4.273	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Big Hut	5–5	5.455	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Josh	4–6	4.364	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 2

2015 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Josh lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10