2015 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2015

j-mart

146.45

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

123.40

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.60 points left. Optimal 155.05 vs. actual 146.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	36.92	Aaron Rodgers	36.92
WR	Marques Colston	6.70	Antonio Brown	18.30
WR	Antonio Brown	18.30	Kendall Wright	20.30
WR	Kendall Wright	20.30	Marques Colston	6.70
RB	Jonathan Stewart	5.20	Ronnie Hillman	8.10
RB	Justin Forsett	4.90	Joseph Randle	29.50
TE	Travis Kelce	13.00	Travis Kelce	13.00
W/R/T	Joseph Randle	29.50	Jermaine Kearse	10.60
K	Justin Tucker	5.00	Justin Tucker	5.00
DEF	Texans	6.63	Texans	6.63

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 36.92 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.98 points left. Optimal 127.38 vs. actual 123.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	5.68	Ben Roethlisberger	5.68
WR	T.Y. Hilton	11.40	T.Y. Hilton	11.40
WR	Jarvis Landry	13.34	Jarvis Landry	13.34
WR	John Brown	7.70	Tyler Lockett	9.28
RB	Adrian Peterson	26.60	Lamar Miller	8.00
RB	David Johnson	5.60	Adrian Peterson	26.60
TE	Crockett Gillmore	5.50	Crockett Gillmore	5.50
W/R/T	Ameer Abdullah	11.20	Ameer Abdullah	11.20
K	Chandler Catanzaro	8.00	Chandler Catanzaro	8.00
DEF	Cardinals	28.38	Cardinals	28.38

Carried by One Guy: Cardinals, 28.38 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Rodgers scored 36.92; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2015

Horgan

117.77

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Martin

87.14

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.38 points left. Optimal 150.15 vs. actual 117.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	16.50	Andrew Luck	16.50
WR	Demaryius Thomas	17.70	Demaryius Thomas	17.70
WR	A.J. Green	41.70	A.J. Green	41.70
WR	Donte Moncrief	11.20	Donte Moncrief	11.20
RB	Alfred Morris	1.90	Dexter McCluster	4.68
RB	Isaiah Crowell	3.60	Joique Bell	6.90
TE	Heath Miller	2.70	Heath Miller	2.70
W/R/T	Charles Johnson	1.40	LeGarrette Blount	27.70
K	Adam Vinatieri	5.00	Adam Vinatieri	5.00
DEF	Bills	16.07	Bills	16.07

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 41.70 points (35.4% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 47.68 points left. Optimal 134.82 vs. actual 87.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	16.20	Cam Newton	31.90
WR	Mike Wallace	6.40	Travis Benjamin	10.68
WR	Torrey Smith	0.00	Rishard Matthews	28.30
WR	Travis Benjamin	10.68	Dorial Green-Beckham	9.20
RB	Jeremy Hill	2.10	Carlos Hyde	6.60
RB	Carlos Hyde	6.60	Branden Oliver	2.98
TE	Rob Gronkowski	14.10	Rob Gronkowski	14.10
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	17.80	Jimmy Graham	17.80
K	Matt Bryant	7.00	Matt Bryant	7.00
DEF	Patriots	6.26	Patriots	6.26

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jimmy Graham, 17.80 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: A.J. Green scored 41.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2015

Joe Shore

160.41

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Demich

90.01

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.90 points left. Optimal 186.31 vs. actual 160.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	24.72	Tom Brady	24.72
WR	Julian Edelman	12.66	Julio Jones	36.40
WR	Julio Jones	36.40	Keenan Allen	33.30
WR	Keenan Allen	33.30	Julian Edelman	12.66
RB	C.J. Spiller	3.60	Bishop Sankey	5.10
RB	Bishop Sankey	5.10	Chris Johnson	29.50
TE	Jordan Reed	12.60	Jordan Reed	12.60
W/R/T	Pierre Garcon	8.90	Pierre Garcon	8.90
K	Cody Parkey	6.00	Cody Parkey	6.00
DEF	Broncos	17.13	Broncos	17.13

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 36.40 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.88 points left. Optimal 121.89 vs. actual 90.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	20.86	Peyton Manning	20.86
WR	Doug Baldwin	5.00	Marvin Jones Jr.	17.90
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.40	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.40
WR	Allen Robinson	8.80	Allen Robinson	8.80
RB	Matt Forte	7.40	Duke Johnson	6.50
RB	Matt Jones	1.80	Matt Forte	7.40
TE	Jason Witten	9.50	Jason Witten	9.50
W/R/T	Melvin Gordon III	5.10	Darren Sproles	19.38
K	Mason Crosby	9.00	Mason Crosby	9.00
DEF	Panthers	5.15	Panthers	5.15

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 20.86 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2015

Adam

135.04

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

129.63

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.12 points left. Optimal 157.16 vs. actual 135.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	20.54	Carson Palmer	20.54
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	31.90	Randall Cobb	31.80
WR	Randall Cobb	31.80	Anquan Boldin	2.60
WR	Davante Adams	0.00	Larry Fitzgerald	31.90
RB	Shane Vereen	2.38	Latavius Murray	23.40
RB	Latavius Murray	23.40	Alfred Blue	21.90
TE	Kyle Rudolph	2.40	Kyle Rudolph	2.40
W/R/T	Ryan Mathews	19.80	Ryan Mathews	19.80
K	Brandon McManus	7.00	Brandon McManus	7.00
DEF	Dolphins	-4.18	Dolphins	-4.18

Carried by One Guy: Larry Fitzgerald, 31.90 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.54 points left. Optimal 156.17 vs. actual 129.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Teddy Bridgewater	2.74	Matthew Stafford	9.08
WR	Jeremy Maclin	26.10	Allen Hurns	14.00
WR	Sammy Watkins	4.40	Ted Ginn Jr.	11.30
WR	Jordan Matthews	7.90	Jeremy Maclin	26.10
RB	Marshawn Lynch	2.80	Fred Jackson	3.20
RB	LeSean McCoy	9.10	LeSean McCoy	9.10
TE	Martellus Bennett	3.50	Delanie Walker	10.30
W/R/T	Steve Smith	39.10	Steve Smith	39.10
K	Stephen Gostkowski	16.00	Stephen Gostkowski	16.00
DEF	Eagles	17.99	Eagles	17.99

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Steve Smith, 39.10 points (30.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Larry Fitzgerald scored 31.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2015

Miller

123.75

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

98.34

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.10 points left. Optimal 131.85 vs. actual 123.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	9.84	Philip Rivers	9.84
WR	Vincent Jackson	5.00	Vincent Jackson	5.00
WR	James Jones	25.40	James Jones	25.40
WR	Percy Harvin	11.70	Percy Harvin	11.70
RB	Jamaal Charles	28.70	Mark Ingram II	18.40
RB	Mark Ingram II	18.40	Jamaal Charles	28.70
TE	Tyler Eifert	0.00	Eric Ebron	8.10
W/R/T	T.J. Yeldon	5.20	T.J. Yeldon	5.20
K	Stephen Hauschka	15.00	Stephen Hauschka	15.00
DEF	Jets	4.51	Jets	4.51

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Charles, 28.70 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 54.70 points left. Optimal 153.04 vs. actual 98.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	15.78	Marcus Mariota	20.68
WR	Calvin Johnson	11.70	Emmanuel Sanders	11.96
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	11.96	Amari Cooper	17.40
WR	Amari Cooper	17.40	Calvin Johnson	11.70
RB	Dion Lewis	15.20	Dion Lewis	15.20
RB	C.J. Anderson	3.20	Devonta Freeman	41.80
TE	Jared Cook	1.20	Owen Daniels	11.30
W/R/T	Stevie Johnson	6.10	Rashad Jennings	7.20
K	Dan Bailey	4.00	Dan Bailey	4.00
DEF	Rams	11.80	Rams	11.80

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Amari Cooper, 17.40 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jamaal Charles scored 28.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 22 – 28, 2015

Kev

166.86

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh

102.86

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.30 points left. Optimal 179.16 vs. actual 166.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	24.28	Tyrod Taylor	24.28
WR	Darrius Heyward-Bey	3.40	DeAndre Hopkins	22.10
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	22.10	Mike Evans	15.60
WR	Mike Evans	15.60	Kenny Britt	15.70
RB	Doug Martin	4.60	Doug Martin	4.60
RB	Le'Veon Bell	22.70	Le'Veon Bell	22.70
TE	Greg Olsen	31.40	Greg Olsen	31.40
W/R/T	Bilal Powell	11.00	Bilal Powell	11.00
K	Dan Carpenter	12.00	Dan Carpenter	12.00
DEF	Seahawks	19.78	Seahawks	19.78

Carried by One Guy: Greg Olsen, 31.40 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.90 points left. Optimal 117.76 vs. actual 102.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Bradford	8.52	Sam Bradford	8.52
WR	Brandon Marshall	21.90	Rueben Randle	23.10
WR	Golden Tate	8.20	Brandin Cooks	11.40
WR	Brandin Cooks	11.40	Brandon Marshall	21.90
RB	Frank Gore	21.90	Giovani Bernard	9.80
RB	Giovani Bernard	9.80	Frank Gore	21.90
TE	Zach Ertz	4.00	Zach Ertz	4.00
W/R/T	Eddie Lacy	10.20	Eddie Lacy	10.20
K	Andrew Franks	-1.00	Andrew Franks	-1.00
DEF	Packers	7.94	Packers	7.94

Carried by One Guy: Frank Gore, 21.90 points (21.1% of positive starter points); Brandon Marshall, 21.90 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–0	2.000	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	1–2	0.364	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Martin	1–2	1.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	2–1	2.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	2–1	2.000	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Adam	2–1	2.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	3–0	2.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	2–1	1.545	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Demich	0–3	1.273	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Krajcik	1–2	1.636	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Big Hut	0–3	0.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–2	0.727	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2015 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Josh lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3