2015 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Dec 1 – 7, 2015

j-mart

136.62

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Martin

106.82

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.10 points left. Optimal 164.72 vs. actual 136.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	25.62	Aaron Rodgers	25.62
WR	Antonio Brown	37.28	Antonio Brown	37.28
WR	Cecil Shorts	12.20	Cecil Shorts	12.20
WR	Kendall Wright	4.30	Andre Johnson	5.40
RB	Latavius Murray	17.70	Bilal Powell	21.20
RB	Terrance West	4.10	Latavius Murray	17.70
TE	Travis Kelce	5.20	Ben Watson	11.80
W/R/T	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	4.60	Pierre Garcon	7.90
K	Justin Tucker	7.00	Justin Tucker	7.00
DEF	Chiefs	18.62	Chiefs	18.62

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 37.28 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.50 points left. Optimal 116.32 vs. actual 106.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	38.14	Cam Newton	38.14
WR	Kamar Aiken	7.80	Kamar Aiken	7.80
WR	Travis Benjamin	0.00	Donte Moncrief	3.80
WR	Donte Moncrief	3.80	Danny Amendola	17.16
RB	Jeremy Hill	15.80	Jeremy Hill	15.80
RB	Antonio Andrews	13.30	Antonio Andrews	13.30
TE	Jacob Tamme	4.10	Jacob Tamme	4.10
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	17.16	Spencer Ware	9.50
K	Caleb Sturgis	5.00	Caleb Sturgis	5.00
DEF	Patriots	1.72	Patriots	1.72

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 38.14 points (35.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Brown scored 37.28; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 1 – 7, 2015

Adam

129.30

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Demich

139.35

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.40 points left. Optimal 131.70 vs. actual 129.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	35.86	Ben Roethlisberger	35.86
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	9.50	Randall Cobb	10.80
WR	Dez Bryant	7.70	Davante Adams	10.10
WR	Randall Cobb	10.80	Larry Fitzgerald	9.50
RB	Darren McFadden	8.40	Darren McFadden	8.40
RB	Jonathan Stewart	16.80	Jonathan Stewart	16.80
TE	Julius Thomas	8.50	Julius Thomas	8.50
W/R/T	Shaun Draughn	17.10	Shaun Draughn	17.10
K	Brandon McManus	4.00	Brandon McManus	4.00
DEF	Bears	10.64	Bears	10.64

Carried by One Guy: Ben Roethlisberger, 35.86 points (27.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Allen Robinson scored 40.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.90 points left. Optimal 151.25 vs. actual 139.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	7.08	Jay Cutler	7.08
WR	Brandon LaFell	4.70	Marvin Jones Jr.	14.00
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	25.90	Odell Beckham Jr.	25.90
WR	Allen Robinson	40.30	Allen Robinson	40.30
RB	Matt Forte	20.80	Jeremy Langford	7.80
RB	Duke Johnson	5.20	Matt Forte	20.80
TE	Antonio Gates	8.00	Antonio Gates	8.00
W/R/T	Doug Baldwin	23.90	Doug Baldwin	23.90
K	Sebastian Janikowski	1.00	Sebastian Janikowski	1.00
DEF	Panthers	2.47	Panthers	2.47

Carried by One Guy: Allen Robinson, 40.30 points (28.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 1 – 7, 2015

Joe Shore

127.72

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Kev

146.55

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.30 points left. Optimal 142.02 vs. actual 127.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	34.28	Tom Brady	34.28
WR	Michael Crabtree	13.00	Julio Jones	13.30
WR	Julio Jones	13.30	Michael Floyd	15.90
WR	Martavis Bryant	21.40	Martavis Bryant	21.40
RB	Chris Ivory	7.40	Chris Ivory	7.40
RB	DeMarco Murray	2.40	Ronnie Hillman	5.60
TE	Vance McDonald	2.80	Vance McDonald	2.80
W/R/T	Ronnie Hillman	5.60	DeVante Parker	13.80
K	Graham Gano	4.00	Graham Gano	4.00
DEF	Broncos	23.54	Broncos	23.54

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 34.28 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drew Brees scored 22.48; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.12 points left. Optimal 164.67 vs. actual 146.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	22.48	Marcus Mariota	37.92
WR	DeSean Jackson	15.02	DeAndre Hopkins	17.30
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	17.30	Mike Evans	14.60
WR	Mike Evans	14.60	DeSean Jackson	15.02
RB	Doug Martin	14.50	Doug Martin	14.50
RB	Thomas Rawls	19.80	Thomas Rawls	19.80
TE	Greg Olsen	17.40	Greg Olsen	17.40
W/R/T	Ameer Abdullah	7.72	J.J. Nelson	10.40
K	Josh Brown	7.00	Josh Brown	7.00
DEF	Seahawks	10.73	Seahawks	10.73

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 22.48 points (15.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 1 – 7, 2015

Miller

111.65

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

185.80

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.72 points left. Optimal 133.37 vs. actual 111.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	6.08	Ryan Fitzpatrick	27.80
WR	Vincent Jackson	10.20	Eric Decker	16.10
WR	Eric Decker	16.10	Alshon Jeffery	10.50
WR	Alshon Jeffery	10.50	Vincent Jackson	10.20
RB	Mark Ingram II	17.90	Mark Ingram II	17.90
RB	T.J. Yeldon	21.60	T.J. Yeldon	21.60
TE	Jordan Reed	4.80	Jordan Reed	4.80
W/R/T	Charcandrick West	5.40	Charcandrick West	5.40
K	Robbie Gould	11.00	Robbie Gould	11.00
DEF	Jets	8.07	Jets	8.07

Carried by One Guy: T.J. Yeldon, 21.60 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.20 points left. Optimal 187.00 vs. actual 185.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	23.90	Andy Dalton	23.90
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	22.50	Dwayne Harris	12.30
WR	Jeremy Maclin	24.00	Ted Ginn Jr.	22.50
WR	Jordan Matthews	11.10	Jeremy Maclin	24.00
RB	LeSean McCoy	13.20	David Johnson	19.00
RB	David Johnson	19.00	LeSean McCoy	13.20
TE	Delanie Walker	19.20	Delanie Walker	19.20
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	20.40	Sammy Watkins	20.40
K	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00
DEF	Eagles	28.50	Eagles	28.50

Carried by One Guy: Eagles, 28.50 points (15.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 1 – 7, 2015

Fischer

78.62

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

105.68

Rank 11; +4.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 51.56 points left. Optimal 130.18 vs. actual 78.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	13.32	Blake Bortles	34.78
WR	T.Y. Hilton	5.10	T.Y. Hilton	5.10
WR	Jarvis Landry	1.50	John Brown	16.30
WR	John Brown	16.30	Devin Funchess	7.80
RB	Adrian Peterson	4.40	Lamar Miller	12.30
RB	Lamar Miller	12.30	Adrian Peterson	4.40
TE	Kyle Rudolph	2.80	Richard Rodgers	26.60
W/R/T	Theo Riddick	5.60	Theo Riddick	5.60
K	Chandler Catanzaro	8.00	Chandler Catanzaro	8.00
DEF	Cardinals	9.30	Cardinals	9.30

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: John Brown, 16.30 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.80 points left. Optimal 107.48 vs. actual 105.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	17.00	Matthew Stafford	17.00
WR	Calvin Johnson	11.90	Emmanuel Sanders	3.90
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	3.90	Amari Cooper	8.20
WR	Amari Cooper	8.20	Calvin Johnson	11.90
RB	DeAngelo Williams	19.00	C.J. Anderson	5.90
RB	Todd Gurley	4.10	DeAngelo Williams	19.00
TE	Eric Ebron	7.90	Eric Ebron	7.90
W/R/T	Devonta Freeman	15.30	Devonta Freeman	15.30
K	Cairo Santos	1.00	Cairo Santos	1.00
DEF	Bengals	17.38	Bengals	17.38

Carried by One Guy: DeAngelo Williams, 19.00 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 1 – 7, 2015

Horgan

107.44

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh

128.79

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.30 points left. Optimal 135.74 vs. actual 107.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	29.24	Tyrod Taylor	29.24
WR	Brandon Marshall	27.10	Demaryius Thomas	15.10
WR	Demaryius Thomas	15.10	Dorial Green-Beckham	22.40
WR	Dontrelle Inman	2.00	Brandon Marshall	27.10
RB	LeGarrette Blount	5.40	James Starks	8.50
RB	Eddie Lacy	0.60	LeGarrette Blount	5.40
TE	Scott Chandler	14.10	Scott Chandler	14.10
W/R/T	Matt Jones	5.90	Matt Jones	5.90
K	Mason Crosby	3.00	Mason Crosby	3.00
DEF	Bills	5.00	Bills	5.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tyrod Taylor, 29.24 points (27.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Javorius Allen scored 31.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.90 points left. Optimal 141.69 vs. actual 128.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	18.58	Jameis Winston	18.58
WR	Golden Tate	10.60	Golden Tate	10.60
WR	A.J. Green	23.30	A.J. Green	23.30
WR	Brandin Cooks	21.40	Brandin Cooks	21.40
RB	Danny Woodhead	4.90	Frank Gore	16.90
RB	Giovani Bernard	4.00	Danny Woodhead	4.90
TE	Gary Barnidge	8.40	Gary Barnidge	8.40
W/R/T	Javorius Allen	31.00	Javorius Allen	31.00
K	Blair Walsh	1.00	Blair Walsh	1.00
DEF	Packers	5.61	Packers	5.61

Carried by One Guy: Javorius Allen, 31.00 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–7	4.909	+1.5	+0.136	3 / 0
Horgan	4–9	4.182	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Martin	2–11	4.364	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Fischer	8–5	7.091	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Miller	8–5	8.273	-3.5	-0.318	1 / 2
Adam	7–6	6.273	+6.5	+0.591	2 / 1
Joe Shore	9–4	9.909	-3.0	-0.273	0 / 2
Kev	9–4	7.818	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Demich	6–7	6.182	-1.5	-0.136	1 / 2
Krajcik	4–9	6.000	-4.0	-0.364	0 / 2
Big Hut	8–5	7.273	+2.0	+0.182	1 / 1
Josh	7–6	5.727	+5.0	+0.455	4 / 2

2015 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Josh lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13