2015 week 14 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 8 – 14, 2015

j-mart

65.82

Martin

99.79

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.06 points left. Optimal 96.88 vs. actual 65.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	19.42	Aaron Rodgers	19.42
WR	Antonio Brown	12.26	Antonio Brown	12.26
WR	Cecil Shorts	2.34	Andre Johnson	3.40
WR	Kendall Wright	0.00	Pierre Garcon	7.70
RB	Latavius Murray	2.70	Bilal Powell	16.70
RB	Terrance West	1.60	Latavius Murray	2.70
TE	Travis Kelce	3.30	Ben Watson	10.50
W/R/T	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	4.60	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	4.60
K	Justin Tucker	5.00	Justin Tucker	5.00
DEF	Chiefs	14.60	Chiefs	14.60

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 19.42 points (29.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.18 points left. Optimal 122.97 vs. actual 99.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	23.00	Russell Wilson	32.28
WR	Kamar Aiken	11.50	Kamar Aiken	11.50
WR	Travis Benjamin	6.32	Travis Benjamin	6.32
WR	Donte Moncrief	6.70	Donte Moncrief	6.70
RB	Jeremy Hill	3.40	Spencer Ware	5.20
RB	Antonio Andrews	7.54	Antonio Andrews	7.54
TE	Jacob Tamme	4.60	Rob Gronkowski	16.70
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	7.60	Danny Amendola	7.60
K	Caleb Sturgis	13.00	Caleb Sturgis	13.00
DEF	Patriots	16.13	Patriots	16.13

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 23.00 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 8 – 14, 2015

Horgan

110.51

Krajcik

131.49

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.60 points left. Optimal 150.11 vs. actual 110.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	18.02	Tyrod Taylor	18.02
WR	Brandon Marshall	23.50	Demaryius Thomas	12.50
WR	Demaryius Thomas	12.50	Tyler Lockett	27.40
WR	Dorial Green-Beckham	6.80	Brandon Marshall	23.50
RB	LeGarrette Blount	5.30	James Starks	24.30
RB	Eddie Lacy	23.30	Eddie Lacy	23.30
TE	Coby Fleener	1.10	Coby Fleener	1.10
W/R/T	Darren Sproles	12.44	Darren Sproles	12.44
K	Mason Crosby	4.00	Mason Crosby	4.00
DEF	Bills	3.55	Bills	3.55

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Marshall, 23.50 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ted Ginn Jr. scored 27.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 131.49 vs. actual 131.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	0.36	Andy Dalton	0.36
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	27.50	Allen Hurns	20.00
WR	Jeremy Maclin	9.60	Ted Ginn Jr.	27.50
WR	Allen Hurns	20.00	Jeremy Maclin	9.60
RB	LeSean McCoy	12.90	David Johnson	14.80
RB	David Johnson	14.80	LeSean McCoy	12.90
TE	Delanie Walker	10.60	Delanie Walker	10.60
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	16.70	Sammy Watkins	16.70
K	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00
DEF	Eagles	8.03	Eagles	8.03

Carried by One Guy: Ted Ginn Jr., 27.50 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 8 – 14, 2015

Miller

101.56

Adam

99.52

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.72 points left. Optimal 132.28 vs. actual 101.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	24.82	Ryan Fitzpatrick	24.82
WR	Vincent Jackson	1.00	Eric Decker	17.12
WR	Eric Decker	17.12	Alshon Jeffery	21.70
WR	Alshon Jeffery	21.70	Tavon Austin	7.62
RB	Charcandrick West	5.40	Joique Bell	8.50
RB	T.J. Yeldon	6.80	T.J. Yeldon	6.80
TE	Tyler Eifert	5.20	Jordan Reed	24.50
W/R/T	Ryan Mathews	5.20	James Jones	6.90
K	Robbie Gould	3.00	Robbie Gould	3.00
DEF	Jets	11.32	Jets	11.32

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Fitzpatrick, 24.82 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.70 points left. Optimal 111.22 vs. actual 99.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	22.70	Carson Palmer	22.70
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	6.60	Randall Cobb	13.00
WR	Dez Bryant	1.40	Davante Adams	2.20
WR	Randall Cobb	13.00	Larry Fitzgerald	6.60
RB	Darren McFadden	13.10	Darren McFadden	13.10
RB	Jonathan Stewart	15.40	Jonathan Stewart	15.40
TE	Julius Thomas	13.90	Julius Thomas	13.90
W/R/T	Shaun Draughn	6.10	Zach Miller	17.00
K	Matt Prater	2.00	Matt Prater	2.00
DEF	Lions	5.32	Lions	5.32

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Carson Palmer, 22.70 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ryan Fitzpatrick scored 24.82; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 8 – 14, 2015

Fischer

140.49

Big Hut

110.92

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.20 points left. Optimal 158.69 vs. actual 140.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	25.70	Blake Bortles	25.70
WR	T.Y. Hilton	17.20	T.Y. Hilton	17.20
WR	Jarvis Landry	17.32	Jarvis Landry	17.32
WR	John Brown	15.80	John Brown	15.80
RB	Adrian Peterson	13.10	Lamar Miller	20.90
RB	Lamar Miller	20.90	Adrian Peterson	13.10
TE	Richard Rodgers	6.80	Kyle Rudolph	9.70
W/R/T	C.J. Spiller	2.40	Willie Snead IV	17.70
K	Chandler Catanzaro	10.00	Chandler Catanzaro	10.00
DEF	Cardinals	11.27	Cardinals	11.27

Carried by One Guy: Blake Bortles, 25.70 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.82 points left. Optimal 132.74 vs. actual 110.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	16.30	Eli Manning	29.28
WR	Calvin Johnson	2.10	Emmanuel Sanders	1.04
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	1.04	Markus Wheaton	8.84
WR	Amari Cooper	0.00	Calvin Johnson	2.10
RB	DeAngelo Williams	22.10	Todd Gurley	29.20
RB	Todd Gurley	29.20	DeAngelo Williams	22.10
TE	Heath Miller	11.80	Heath Miller	11.80
W/R/T	Devonta Freeman	5.70	Devonta Freeman	5.70
K	Chris Boswell	18.00	Chris Boswell	18.00
DEF	Bengals	4.68	Bengals	4.68

Carried by One Guy: Todd Gurley, 29.20 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

2015 week 14 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Consolation

Horgan lineup

Krajcik lineup

Playoff

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Playoff

Fischer lineup

Big Hut lineup