2015 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 17 – 23, 2015

j-mart

85.75

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh

91.04

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.30 points left. Optimal 88.05 vs. actual 85.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	19.08	Aaron Rodgers	19.08
WR	Pierre Garcon	5.80	Cecil Shorts	13.54
WR	Cecil Shorts	13.54	Andre Johnson	1.80
WR	Kendall Wright	0.00	Pierre Garcon	5.80
RB	Justin Forsett	2.60	Latavius Murray	8.80
RB	Latavius Murray	8.80	Justin Forsett	2.60
TE	Travis Kelce	7.10	Travis Kelce	7.10
W/R/T	David Cobb	-0.30	Taiwan Jones	0.20
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Chiefs	20.13	Chiefs	20.13

Carried by One Guy: Chiefs, 20.13 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Giovani Bernard scored 20.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 91.04 vs. actual 91.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mark Sanchez	13.84	Mark Sanchez	13.84
WR	Golden Tate	12.06	Golden Tate	12.06
WR	A.J. Green	9.90	A.J. Green	9.90
WR	Jamison Crowder	1.32	Jamison Crowder	1.32
RB	Danny Woodhead	2.10	Giovani Bernard	20.60
RB	Giovani Bernard	20.60	Danny Woodhead	2.10
TE	Vernon Davis	9.80	Vernon Davis	9.80
W/R/T	Frank Gore	8.50	Frank Gore	8.50
K	Blair Walsh	0.00	Blair Walsh	0.00
DEF	Packers	12.92	Packers	12.92

Carried by One Guy: Giovani Bernard, 20.60 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 17 – 23, 2015

Fischer

81.93

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Demich

93.58

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.72 points left. Optimal 105.65 vs. actual 81.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	7.56	Blake Bortles	10.58
WR	T.Y. Hilton	3.10	Jarvis Landry	9.50
WR	Jarvis Landry	9.50	John Brown	12.70
WR	Devin Funchess	14.40	Devin Funchess	14.40
RB	Adrian Peterson	11.10	James White	17.60
RB	Lamar Miller	6.50	Adrian Peterson	11.10
TE	Richard Rodgers	2.20	Richard Rodgers	2.20
W/R/T	Darren Sproles	13.52	Darren Sproles	13.52
K	Chandler Catanzaro	9.00	Chandler Catanzaro	9.00
DEF	Cardinals	5.05	Cardinals	5.05

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Devin Funchess, 14.40 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Panthers scored 17.32; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.90 points left. Optimal 101.48 vs. actual 93.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Flacco	11.96	Joe Flacco	11.96
WR	Brandon LaFell	8.60	Brandon LaFell	8.60
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.00	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.00
WR	Allen Robinson	15.80	Allen Robinson	15.80
RB	Melvin Gordon III	5.40	Melvin Gordon III	5.40
RB	Jeremy Langford	11.70	Jeremy Langford	11.70
TE	Antonio Gates	1.10	Jason Witten	3.70
W/R/T	Jason Witten	3.70	Doug Baldwin	9.00
K	Sebastian Janikowski	10.00	Sebastian Janikowski	10.00
DEF	Panthers	17.32	Panthers	17.32

Carried by One Guy: Panthers, 17.32 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 17 – 23, 2015

Miller

83.02

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Kev

138.31

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.62 points left. Optimal 113.64 vs. actual 83.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	5.92	Tony Romo	13.28
WR	Vincent Jackson	13.60	Eric Decker	10.10
WR	Eric Decker	10.10	Vincent Jackson	13.60
WR	Tavon Austin	0.64	James Jones	23.90
RB	Charcandrick West	7.40	Charcandrick West	7.40
RB	T.J. Yeldon	9.70	T.J. Yeldon	9.70
TE	Tyler Eifert	15.70	Tyler Eifert	15.70
W/R/T	Jordan Reed	5.60	Jordan Reed	5.60
K	Robbie Gould	10.00	Robbie Gould	10.00
DEF	Jets	4.36	Jets	4.36

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Eifert, 15.70 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.04 points left. Optimal 149.35 vs. actual 138.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Marcus Mariota	18.14	Marcus Mariota	18.14
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	28.30	DeAndre Hopkins	28.30
WR	Mike Evans	14.30	Mike Evans	14.30
WR	Stefon Diggs	9.60	Stefon Diggs	9.60
RB	Dexter McCluster	3.36	Doug Martin	25.50
RB	Doug Martin	25.50	Charles Sims	14.40
TE	Greg Olsen	12.90	Greg Olsen	12.90
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	17.20	DeSean Jackson	17.20
K	Stephen Hauschka	3.00	Stephen Hauschka	3.00
DEF	Seahawks	6.01	Seahawks	6.01

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 28.30 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 17 – 23, 2015

Adam

121.53

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

95.90

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.80 points left. Optimal 137.33 vs. actual 121.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	26.58	Carson Palmer	26.58
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	13.00	Dez Bryant	12.50
WR	Dez Bryant	12.50	Randall Cobb	9.58
WR	Randall Cobb	9.58	Larry Fitzgerald	13.00
RB	Darren McFadden	18.40	Darren McFadden	18.40
RB	Jonathan Stewart	19.90	Jonathan Stewart	19.90
TE	Jacob Tamme	2.10	Julius Thomas	11.30
W/R/T	Davante Adams	5.10	Shaun Draughn	11.70
K	Brandon McManus	4.00	Brandon McManus	4.00
DEF	Titans	10.37	Titans	10.37

Carried by One Guy: Carson Palmer, 26.58 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.05 points left. Optimal 109.95 vs. actual 95.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	13.08	Matt Ryan	17.90
WR	Michael Crabtree	8.00	Julio Jones	22.50
WR	Julio Jones	22.50	Terrance Williams	15.90
WR	Terrance Williams	15.90	Michael Crabtree	8.00
RB	Chris Ivory	5.00	DeMarco Murray	9.10
RB	DeMarco Murray	9.10	Ronnie Hillman	12.90
TE	Zach Ertz	2.20	Zach Ertz	2.20
W/R/T	Chris Johnson	7.00	Chris Johnson	7.00
K	Cairo Santos	6.00	Cairo Santos	6.00
DEF	Rams	7.12	Broncos	8.45

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 22.50 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Carson Palmer scored 26.58; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 17 – 23, 2015

Martin

118.46

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

72.84

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.70 points left. Optimal 133.16 vs. actual 118.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	31.44	Cam Newton	31.44
WR	Kamar Aiken	13.50	Kamar Aiken	13.50
WR	Rishard Matthews	2.00	Donte Moncrief	6.60
WR	Donte Moncrief	6.60	Danny Amendola	18.88
RB	Jeremy Hill	16.50	Jeremy Hill	16.50
RB	Antonio Andrews	10.40	Antonio Andrews	10.40
TE	Rob Gronkowski	4.70	Rob Gronkowski	4.70
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	18.88	Alfred Blue	16.70
K	Caleb Sturgis	6.00	Caleb Sturgis	6.00
DEF	Patriots	8.44	Patriots	8.44

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 31.44 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.86 points left. Optimal 107.70 vs. actual 72.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	24.00	Andy Dalton	24.00
WR	Jeremy Maclin	4.66	Sammy Watkins	5.40
WR	Jordan Matthews	3.30	Ted Ginn Jr.	13.42
WR	Allen Hurns	3.40	Jeremy Maclin	4.66
RB	Marshawn Lynch	0.00	David Johnson	11.24
RB	LeSean McCoy	21.30	LeSean McCoy	21.30
TE	Martellus Bennett	3.60	Martellus Bennett	3.60
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	5.40	Delanie Walker	16.90
K	Stephen Gostkowski	8.00	Stephen Gostkowski	8.00
DEF	Eagles	-0.82	Eagles	-0.82

Carried by One Guy: Andy Dalton, 24.00 points (32.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 17 – 23, 2015

Horgan

95.96

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Big Hut

96.15

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.00 points left. Optimal 115.96 vs. actual 95.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	9.42	Ryan Tannehill	14.82
WR	Brandon Marshall	13.20	Demaryius Thomas	13.40
WR	Demaryius Thomas	13.40	Leonard Hankerson	11.60
WR	Leonard Hankerson	11.60	Brandon Marshall	13.20
RB	James Starks	4.90	LeGarrette Blount	6.60
RB	LeGarrette Blount	6.60	Eddie Lacy	13.10
TE	Jimmy Graham	5.40	Jimmy Graham	5.40
W/R/T	Matt Jones	0.20	Dontrelle Inman	6.60
K	Mason Crosby	22.00	Mason Crosby	22.00
DEF	Texans	9.24	Texans	9.24

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Mason Crosby, 22.00 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matthew Stafford scored 20.38; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.98 points left. Optimal 103.13 vs. actual 96.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	20.38	Matthew Stafford	20.38
WR	Calvin Johnson	11.30	Marquess Wilson	14.20
WR	Marquess Wilson	14.20	Calvin Johnson	11.30
WR	Amari Cooper	1.22	Stevie Johnson	8.90
RB	Devonta Freeman	4.30	Devonta Freeman	4.30
RB	Todd Gurley	10.60	Todd Gurley	10.60
TE	Crockett Gillmore	14.60	Crockett Gillmore	14.60
W/R/T	Stevie Johnson	8.90	C.J. Anderson	8.20
K	Dan Bailey	6.00	Dan Bailey	6.00
DEF	Bengals	4.65	Bengals	4.65

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 20.38 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–6	4.182	+1.5	+0.136	3 / 0
Horgan	3–8	3.364	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Martin	2–9	3.364	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Fischer	7–4	6.182	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Miller	8–3	7.636	-3.5	-0.318	1 / 2
Adam	6–5	5.455	+4.5	+0.409	1 / 0
Joe Shore	9–2	9.091	-3.0	-0.273	0 / 2
Kev	8–3	6.818	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Demich	4–7	4.727	-1.5	-0.136	1 / 2
Krajcik	3–8	4.273	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Big Hut	6–5	6.182	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Josh	5–6	4.727	+4.5	+0.409	3 / 2

2015 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Big Hut lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11