2015 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 10 – 14, 2015

j-mart

143.06

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

84.48

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.90 points left. Optimal 144.96 vs. actual 143.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	23.06	Aaron Rodgers	23.06
WR	Marques Colston	4.40	Antonio Brown	25.86
WR	Antonio Brown	25.86	Kendall Wright	20.10
WR	Kendall Wright	20.10	Marques Colston	4.40
RB	Jonathan Stewart	10.10	Khiry Robinson	9.50
RB	Justin Forsett	7.60	Jonathan Stewart	10.10
TE	Travis Kelce	27.60	Travis Kelce	27.60
W/R/T	Joseph Randle	12.20	Joseph Randle	12.20
K	Justin Tucker	10.00	Justin Tucker	10.00
DEF	Texans	2.14	Texans	2.14

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 27.60 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.80 points left. Optimal 102.28 vs. actual 84.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	17.72	Andrew Luck	17.72
WR	Demaryius Thomas	9.50	Demaryius Thomas	9.50
WR	A.J. Green	8.80	A.J. Green	8.80
WR	Charles Johnson	3.70	Brandon Coleman	12.10
RB	Alfred Morris	14.10	Alfred Morris	14.10
RB	Isaiah Crowell	4.30	Isaiah Crowell	4.30
TE	Larry Donnell	3.60	Dwayne Allen	9.20
W/R/T	Eddie Royal	1.30	Joique Bell	5.10
K	Adam Vinatieri	0.00	Adam Vinatieri	0.00
DEF	Panthers	21.46	Panthers	21.46

Carried by One Guy: Panthers, 21.46 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 10 – 14, 2015

Miller

154.50

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Demich

108.67

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.20 points left. Optimal 174.70 vs. actual 154.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	24.14	Tony Romo	24.14
WR	Vincent Jackson	7.10	Eric Decker	10.70
WR	Eric Decker	10.70	James Jones	19.10
WR	Alshon Jeffery	10.30	Percy Harvin	17.30
RB	Jamaal Charles	18.80	Mark Ingram II	16.20
RB	Mark Ingram II	16.20	Jamaal Charles	18.80
TE	Tyler Eifert	28.90	Tyler Eifert	28.90
W/R/T	Andre Ellington	12.10	Eric Ebron	13.30
K	Stephen Hauschka	9.00	Stephen Hauschka	9.00
DEF	Jets	17.26	Jets	17.26

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Eifert, 28.90 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.80 points left. Optimal 112.47 vs. actual 108.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	4.90	Peyton Manning	4.90
WR	Andre Johnson	4.40	Doug Baldwin	7.00
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	6.90	Odell Beckham Jr.	6.90
WR	Allen Robinson	3.20	Andre Johnson	4.40
RB	Matt Forte	27.10	Melvin Gordon III	6.20
RB	Melvin Gordon III	6.20	Matt Forte	27.10
TE	Jason Witten	22.00	Jason Witten	22.00
W/R/T	Darren Sproles	16.60	Darren Sproles	16.60
K	Mason Crosby	7.00	Mason Crosby	7.00
DEF	Bengals	10.37	Bengals	10.37

Carried by One Guy: Matt Forte, 27.10 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 10 – 14, 2015

Adam

91.70

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Kev

108.19

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.60 points left. Optimal 97.30 vs. actual 91.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	8.52	Eli Manning	8.52
WR	Dez Bryant	7.30	Randall Cobb	12.30
WR	Randall Cobb	12.30	Davante Adams	7.90
WR	Davante Adams	7.90	Larry Fitzgerald	11.70
RB	Latavius Murray	11.50	Ryan Mathews	10.30
RB	Alfred Blue	5.40	Latavius Murray	11.50
TE	Kyle Rudolph	7.80	Kyle Rudolph	7.80
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	11.70	Shane Vereen	8.00
K	Blair Walsh	3.00	Blair Walsh	3.00
DEF	Dolphins	16.28	Dolphins	16.28

Carried by One Guy: Dolphins, 16.28 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DeAndre Hopkins scored 28.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.40 points left. Optimal 114.59 vs. actual 108.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	18.50	Drew Brees	18.50
WR	DeSean Jackson	0.00	DeAndre Hopkins	28.30
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	28.30	Kenny Stills	1.70
WR	Mike Evans	0.00	Kenny Britt	4.70
RB	Doug Martin	5.90	Doug Martin	5.90
RB	Tevin Coleman	8.00	Tevin Coleman	8.00
TE	Greg Olsen	1.60	Greg Olsen	1.60
W/R/T	DeAngelo Williams	15.70	DeAngelo Williams	15.70
K	Dan Carpenter	11.00	Dan Carpenter	11.00
DEF	Seahawks	19.19	Seahawks	19.19

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 28.30 points (26.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 10 – 14, 2015

Fischer

127.73

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

89.93

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.94 points left. Optimal 140.67 vs. actual 127.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	20.04	Ben Roethlisberger	20.04
WR	T.Y. Hilton	12.30	T.Y. Hilton	12.30
WR	Jarvis Landry	18.18	Jarvis Landry	18.18
WR	John Brown	12.60	John Brown	12.60
RB	Adrian Peterson	6.70	Ameer Abdullah	20.50
RB	Lamar Miller	8.00	David Johnson	12.86
TE	Jordan Cameron	9.30	Jordan Cameron	9.30
W/R/T	Ameer Abdullah	20.50	Tyler Lockett	14.78
K	Chandler Catanzaro	8.00	Chandler Catanzaro	8.00
DEF	Chiefs	12.11	Chiefs	12.11

Carried by One Guy: Ameer Abdullah, 20.50 points (16.0% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.56 points left. Optimal 106.49 vs. actual 89.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	13.74	Matthew Stafford	13.74
WR	Jeremy Maclin	7.70	Cecil Shorts	7.70
WR	Sammy Watkins	0.00	Jordan Matthews	17.20
WR	Jordan Matthews	17.20	Jeremy Maclin	7.70
RB	Marshawn Lynch	14.90	Marshawn Lynch	14.90
RB	LeSean McCoy	10.20	LeSean McCoy	10.20
TE	Martellus Bennett	14.00	Martellus Bennett	14.00
W/R/T	Steve Smith	2.94	Delanie Walker	11.80
K	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00	Stephen Gostkowski	4.00
DEF	Eagles	5.25	Eagles	5.25

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Matthews, 17.20 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 10 – 14, 2015

Martin

152.63

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

88.12

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.10 points left. Optimal 166.73 vs. actual 152.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	15.14	Russell Wilson	15.14
WR	Mike Wallace	9.30	Michael Floyd	2.30
WR	Torrey Smith	1.60	Markus Wheaton	9.00
WR	Markus Wheaton	9.00	Mike Wallace	9.30
RB	Jeremy Hill	18.30	Jeremy Hill	18.30
RB	Carlos Hyde	33.20	Carlos Hyde	33.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	29.90	Rob Gronkowski	29.90
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	14.10	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	27.50
K	Matt Bryant	17.00	Matt Bryant	17.00
DEF	Patriots	5.09	Patriots	5.09

Carried by One Guy: Carlos Hyde, 33.20 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.50 points left. Optimal 107.62 vs. actual 88.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	11.74	Ryan Tannehill	11.74
WR	Calvin Johnson	4.90	Emmanuel Sanders	10.90
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	10.90	Amari Cooper	7.20
WR	Amari Cooper	7.20	Stevie Johnson	17.20
RB	Rashad Jennings	11.20	Dion Lewis	14.00
RB	C.J. Anderson	6.80	Rashad Jennings	11.20
TE	Owen Daniels	1.50	Owen Daniels	1.50
W/R/T	Roddy White	10.40	Roddy White	10.40
K	Dan Bailey	8.00	Dan Bailey	8.00
DEF	Rams	15.48	Rams	15.48

Carried by One Guy: Rams, 15.48 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 10 – 14, 2015

Joe Shore

199.86

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh

89.98

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 199.86 vs. actual 199.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	27.62	Tom Brady	27.62
WR	Julian Edelman	16.10	Julio Jones	32.60
WR	Julio Jones	32.60	Keenan Allen	26.10
WR	Keenan Allen	26.10	Julian Edelman	16.10
RB	Chris Ivory	22.50	Chris Ivory	22.50
RB	DeMarco Murray	16.00	DeMarco Murray	16.00
TE	Jordan Reed	15.80	Jordan Reed	15.80
W/R/T	Bishop Sankey	21.94	Bishop Sankey	21.94
K	Cody Parkey	5.00	Cody Parkey	5.00
DEF	Broncos	16.20	Broncos	16.20

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 32.60 points (16.3% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.90 points left. Optimal 116.88 vs. actual 89.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Bradford	15.44	Sam Bradford	15.44
WR	Brandon Marshall	15.20	Golden Tate	5.08
WR	Golden Tate	5.08	Brandin Cooks	7.30
WR	Brandin Cooks	7.30	Brandon Marshall	15.20
RB	Frank Gore	4.10	Giovani Bernard	11.80
RB	Eddie Lacy	16.90	Eddie Lacy	16.90
TE	Ladarius Green	15.90	Ladarius Green	15.90
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	1.00	Danny Woodhead	20.20
K	Andrew Franks	4.00	Andrew Franks	4.00
DEF	Packers	5.06	Packers	5.06

Carried by One Guy: Eddie Lacy, 16.90 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–0	0.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–0	0.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–0	0.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–0	0.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	0–1	0.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	1–0	0.455	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Demich	0–1	0.545	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Krajcik	0–1	0.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	0–1	0.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	0–1	0.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2015 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Josh lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1