2015 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 24 – 30, 2015

j-mart

84.44

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

114.29

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.80 points left. Optimal 89.24 vs. actual 84.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	13.38	Aaron Rodgers	13.38
WR	Pierre Garcon	5.00	Antonio Brown	8.10
WR	Cecil Shorts	11.30	Cecil Shorts	11.30
WR	Kendall Wright	2.50	Pierre Garcon	5.00
RB	Bilal Powell	4.50	Bilal Powell	4.50
RB	Latavius Murray	8.70	Latavius Murray	8.70
TE	Travis Kelce	14.90	Travis Kelce	14.90
W/R/T	Antonio Brown	8.10	Ben Watson	7.30
K	Justin Tucker	10.00	Justin Tucker	10.00
DEF	Chiefs	6.06	Chiefs	6.06

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 14.90 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Brandon Marshall scored 31.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.94 points left. Optimal 143.23 vs. actual 114.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brian Hoyer	13.90	Tyrod Taylor	26.24
WR	Brandon Marshall	31.60	Dontrelle Inman	15.00
WR	Demaryius Thomas	4.10	Cole Beasley	13.40
WR	Dontrelle Inman	15.00	Brandon Marshall	31.60
RB	LeGarrette Blount	2.70	James Starks	10.00
RB	Eddie Lacy	21.90	Eddie Lacy	21.90
TE	Jimmy Graham	9.50	Jimmy Graham	9.50
W/R/T	Matt Jones	6.90	Matt Jones	6.90
K	Mason Crosby	8.00	Mason Crosby	8.00
DEF	Bills	0.69	Bills	0.69

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Marshall, 31.60 points (27.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 24 – 30, 2015

Miller

97.31

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Demich

129.43

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 46.84 points left. Optimal 144.15 vs. actual 97.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	-1.76	Philip Rivers	30.90
WR	Vincent Jackson	9.60	Eric Decker	14.70
WR	Eric Decker	14.70	Alshon Jeffery	12.50
WR	Alshon Jeffery	12.50	Tavon Austin	18.78
RB	Mark Ingram II	12.70	Joique Bell	15.20
RB	T.J. Yeldon	10.20	Mark Ingram II	12.70
TE	Tyler Eifert	11.50	Tyler Eifert	11.50
W/R/T	Jordan Reed	13.80	Jordan Reed	13.80
K	Robbie Gould	4.00	Robbie Gould	4.00
DEF	Jets	10.07	Jets	10.07

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Eric Decker, 14.70 points (14.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.90 points left. Optimal 167.33 vs. actual 129.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	12.90	Jay Cutler	12.90
WR	Brandon LaFell	5.60	Doug Baldwin	37.50
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	26.70	Odell Beckham Jr.	26.70
WR	Allen Robinson	14.10	Allen Robinson	14.10
RB	Matt Forte	5.80	Duke Johnson	7.50
RB	Duke Johnson	7.50	Jeremy Langford	11.80
TE	Antonio Gates	19.30	Antonio Gates	19.30
W/R/T	Melvin Gordon III	10.50	Melvin Gordon III	10.50
K	Sebastian Janikowski	5.00	Sebastian Janikowski	5.00
DEF	Panthers	22.03	Panthers	22.03

Carried by One Guy: Odell Beckham Jr., 26.70 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 24 – 30, 2015

Adam

87.21

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Kev

86.24

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.60 points left. Optimal 111.81 vs. actual 87.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	17.44	Ben Roethlisberger	24.04
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	11.60	Dez Bryant	3.60
WR	Dez Bryant	3.60	Randall Cobb	10.42
WR	Randall Cobb	10.42	Larry Fitzgerald	11.60
RB	Darren McFadden	9.60	Shaun Draughn	11.10
RB	Jonathan Stewart	9.20	Darren McFadden	9.60
TE	Zach Miller	8.00	Julius Thomas	24.10
W/R/T	Tevin Coleman	11.00	Tevin Coleman	11.00
K	Brandon McManus	5.00	Brandon McManus	5.00
DEF	Steelers	1.35	Steelers	1.35

Carried by One Guy: Carson Palmer, 17.44 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.90 points left. Optimal 103.14 vs. actual 86.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	7.12	Marcus Mariota	19.42
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	6.10	Mike Evans	8.90
WR	Mike Evans	8.90	J.J. Nelson	6.30
WR	Stefon Diggs	5.10	DeSean Jackson	13.64
RB	Doug Martin	10.30	Doug Martin	10.30
RB	Thomas Rawls	14.10	Thomas Rawls	14.10
TE	Greg Olsen	9.50	Greg Olsen	9.50
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	13.64	Alfred Morris	9.50
K	Josh Brown	2.00	Josh Brown	2.00
DEF	Seahawks	9.48	Seahawks	9.48

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Thomas Rawls, 14.10 points (16.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Carson Palmer scored 17.44; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 24 – 30, 2015

Fischer

142.34

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

131.19

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.84 points left. Optimal 167.18 vs. actual 142.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	25.70	Derek Carr	25.70
WR	Jarvis Landry	31.46	T.Y. Hilton	24.50
WR	John Brown	12.40	Jarvis Landry	31.46
WR	Devin Funchess	2.90	John Brown	12.40
RB	Darren Sproles	4.56	Jay Ajayi	7.80
RB	Adrian Peterson	33.70	Adrian Peterson	33.70
TE	Brent Celek	8.00	Brent Celek	8.00
W/R/T	Willie Snead IV	7.00	Willie Snead IV	7.00
K	Chandler Catanzaro	6.00	Chandler Catanzaro	6.00
DEF	Cardinals	10.62	Cardinals	10.62

Carried by One Guy: Adrian Peterson, 33.70 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.10 points left. Optimal 143.29 vs. actual 131.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	19.72	Andy Dalton	19.72
WR	Jeremy Maclin	28.50	Jordan Matthews	13.50
WR	Jordan Matthews	13.50	Allen Hurns	6.20
WR	Allen Hurns	6.20	Jeremy Maclin	28.50
RB	LeSean McCoy	15.60	David Johnson	10.84
RB	David Johnson	10.84	LeSean McCoy	15.60
TE	Martellus Bennett	0.00	Delanie Walker	12.10
W/R/T	Sammy Watkins	32.80	Sammy Watkins	32.80
K	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00	Stephen Gostkowski	7.00
DEF	Eagles	-2.97	Eagles	-2.97

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Sammy Watkins, 32.80 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Adrian Peterson scored 33.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 24 – 30, 2015

Martin

135.17

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

Big Hut

152.12

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.78 points left. Optimal 159.95 vs. actual 135.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	17.82	Russell Wilson	37.20
WR	Kamar Aiken	17.00	Kamar Aiken	17.00
WR	Travis Benjamin	19.24	Travis Benjamin	19.24
WR	Donte Moncrief	17.40	Donte Moncrief	17.40
RB	Alfred Blue	14.60	Jeremy Hill	10.50
RB	Antonio Andrews	5.10	Alfred Blue	14.60
TE	Rob Gronkowski	17.80	Rob Gronkowski	17.80
W/R/T	Spencer Ware	21.00	Spencer Ware	21.00
K	Caleb Sturgis	2.00	Caleb Sturgis	2.00
DEF	Patriots	3.21	Patriots	3.21

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Spencer Ware, 21.00 points (15.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Calvin Johnson scored 31.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 50.94 points left. Optimal 203.06 vs. actual 152.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	16.84	Matthew Stafford	36.78
WR	Calvin Johnson	31.30	Emmanuel Sanders	16.62
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	16.62	Amari Cooper	17.00
WR	Amari Cooper	17.00	Calvin Johnson	31.30
RB	DeAngelo Williams	21.20	C.J. Anderson	31.30
RB	Todd Gurley	3.50	DeAngelo Williams	21.20
TE	Eric Ebron	3.80	Heath Miller	7.00
W/R/T	Stevie Johnson	18.70	Stevie Johnson	18.70
K	Dan Bailey	6.00	Dan Bailey	6.00
DEF	Bengals	17.16	Bengals	17.16

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Johnson, 31.30 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 24 – 30, 2015

Joe Shore

103.78

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Josh

111.51

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.12 points left. Optimal 129.90 vs. actual 103.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	23.20	Tom Brady	23.20
WR	Michael Crabtree	9.90	Julio Jones	8.10
WR	Julio Jones	8.10	Martavis Bryant	16.50
WR	Martavis Bryant	16.50	Michael Crabtree	9.90
RB	Chris Ivory	17.20	Chris Ivory	17.20
RB	DeMarco Murray	3.00	Ronnie Hillman	12.40
TE	Crockett Gillmore	3.50	Charles Clay	5.60
W/R/T	Chris Johnson	1.70	Anquan Boldin	13.30
K	Graham Gano	18.00	Graham Gano	18.00
DEF	Rams	2.68	Broncos	5.70

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 23.20 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: A.J. Green scored 21.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.88 points left. Optimal 116.39 vs. actual 111.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	14.50	Jameis Winston	14.50
WR	Golden Tate	14.68	Golden Tate	14.68
WR	A.J. Green	21.10	A.J. Green	21.10
WR	Brandin Cooks	6.00	Rueben Randle	10.10
RB	Danny Woodhead	7.70	Giovani Bernard	7.70
RB	Giovani Bernard	7.70	Danny Woodhead	7.70
TE	Gary Barnidge	12.60	Gary Barnidge	12.60
W/R/T	Javorius Allen	16.40	Javorius Allen	16.40
K	Blair Walsh	7.00	Blair Walsh	7.00
DEF	Packers	3.83	Falcons	4.61

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 21.10 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–7	4.182	+1.5	+0.136	3 / 0
Horgan	4–8	3.909	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Martin	2–10	4.182	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Fischer	8–4	7.091	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Miller	8–4	7.909	-3.5	-0.318	1 / 2
Adam	7–5	5.636	+8.0	+0.727	2 / 0
Joe Shore	9–3	9.455	-3.0	-0.273	0 / 2
Kev	8–4	6.909	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Demich	5–7	5.364	-1.5	-0.136	1 / 2
Krajcik	3–9	5.000	-4.0	-0.364	0 / 2
Big Hut	7–5	7.182	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Josh	6–6	5.182	+5.0	+0.455	4 / 2

2015 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Josh lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12