2015 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 6 – 12, 2015

j-mart

93.65

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Adam

127.58

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.60 points left. Optimal 115.25 vs. actual 93.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	15.54	Aaron Rodgers	15.54
WR	Pierre Garcon	6.60	Antonio Brown	6.54
WR	Antonio Brown	6.54	Andre Johnson	22.70
WR	Kendall Wright	4.50	Pierre Garcon	6.60
RB	Justin Forsett	27.00	Joseph Randle	9.30
RB	C.J. Spiller	1.70	Justin Forsett	27.00
TE	Travis Kelce	5.00	Travis Kelce	5.00
W/R/T	Joseph Randle	9.30	Marques Colston	5.10
K	Justin Tucker	5.00	Justin Tucker	5.00
DEF	Chiefs	12.47	Chiefs	12.47

Carried by One Guy: Justin Forsett, 27.00 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.38 points left. Optimal 161.96 vs. actual 127.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	18.34	Carson Palmer	18.34
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	14.30	Willie Snead IV	19.10
WR	Randall Cobb	3.80	Anquan Boldin	22.70
WR	Willie Snead IV	19.10	Larry Fitzgerald	14.30
RB	Arian Foster	16.30	Ryan Mathews	17.10
RB	Dion Lewis	19.30	Dion Lewis	19.30
TE	Heath Miller	6.10	Heath Miller	6.10
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	7.20	Shane Vereen	21.88
K	Brandon McManus	10.00	Brandon McManus	10.00
DEF	Falcons	13.14	Falcons	13.14

Carried by One Guy: Dion Lewis, 19.30 points (15.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 6 – 12, 2015

Horgan

98.78

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller

106.43

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.70 points left. Optimal 110.48 vs. actual 98.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	22.86	Tyrod Taylor	22.86
WR	Demaryius Thomas	8.00	Demaryius Thomas	8.00
WR	Tavon Austin	9.88	Tavon Austin	9.88
WR	Donte Moncrief	0.80	Donte Moncrief	0.80
RB	LeGarrette Blount	7.40	LeGarrette Blount	7.40
RB	Eddie Lacy	4.00	Isaiah Crowell	15.70
TE	Jared Cook	1.30	Jared Cook	1.30
W/R/T	Thomas Rawls	24.90	Thomas Rawls	24.90
K	Adam Vinatieri	11.00	Adam Vinatieri	11.00
DEF	Bills	8.64	Bills	8.64

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Thomas Rawls, 24.90 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyler Eifert scored 25.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.90 points left. Optimal 110.33 vs. actual 106.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	22.60	Philip Rivers	22.60
WR	Vincent Jackson	3.90	Vincent Jackson	3.90
WR	James Jones	14.70	James Jones	14.70
WR	Percy Harvin	0.38	Percy Harvin	0.38
RB	Jamaal Charles	8.90	Andre Ellington	12.30
RB	Mark Ingram II	8.40	Jamaal Charles	8.90
TE	Tyler Eifert	25.00	Tyler Eifert	25.00
W/R/T	T.J. Yeldon	14.80	T.J. Yeldon	14.80
K	Stephen Hauschka	5.00	Stephen Hauschka	5.00
DEF	Giants	2.75	Giants	2.75

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Eifert, 25.00 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 6 – 12, 2015

Martin

101.58

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

105.15

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.70 points left. Optimal 102.28 vs. actual 101.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	12.62	Russell Wilson	12.62
WR	Kamar Aiken	9.80	Kamar Aiken	9.80
WR	Travis Benjamin	11.34	Travis Benjamin	11.34
WR	Ty Montgomery II	13.90	Ty Montgomery II	13.90
RB	Jeremy Hill	3.00	Jeremy Hill	3.00
RB	Carlos Hyde	16.20	Carlos Hyde	16.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	8.70	Rob Gronkowski	8.70
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	4.50	Torrey Smith	5.20
K	Matt Bryant	7.00	Matt Bryant	7.00
DEF	Patriots	14.52	Patriots	14.52

Carried by One Guy: Carlos Hyde, 16.20 points (15.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Blake Bortles scored 30.22; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.08 points left. Optimal 118.23 vs. actual 105.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	30.22	Blake Bortles	30.22
WR	T.Y. Hilton	11.30	T.Y. Hilton	11.30
WR	Terrance Williams	4.00	Terrance Williams	4.00
WR	John Brown	15.30	John Brown	15.30
RB	Darren McFadden	12.30	Dan Herron	2.80
RB	Ameer Abdullah	1.82	Darren McFadden	12.30
TE	Charles Clay	1.20	Richard Rodgers	7.50
W/R/T	Richard Rodgers	7.50	David Johnson	13.30
K	Chandler Catanzaro	6.00	Chandler Catanzaro	6.00
DEF	Cardinals	15.51	Cardinals	15.51

Carried by One Guy: Blake Bortles, 30.22 points (28.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 6 – 12, 2015

Kev

141.79

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

121.72

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.10 points left. Optimal 155.89 vs. actual 141.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	17.30	Drew Brees	17.30
WR	Michael Floyd	2.00	Michael Floyd	2.00
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	24.40	DeAndre Hopkins	24.40
WR	Mike Evans	5.60	Mike Evans	5.60
RB	Doug Martin	37.30	Doug Martin	37.30
RB	Le'Veon Bell	22.70	Le'Veon Bell	22.70
TE	Derek Carrier	9.70	Derek Carrier	9.70
W/R/T	Alfred Morris	1.50	Charles Sims	15.60
K	Robbie Gould	7.00	Robbie Gould	7.00
DEF	Seahawks	14.29	Seahawks	14.29

Carried by One Guy: Doug Martin, 37.30 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 121.72 vs. actual 121.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	29.04	Andy Dalton	29.04
WR	Jeremy Maclin	12.50	Jordan Matthews	6.90
WR	Jordan Matthews	6.90	Allen Hurns	22.10
WR	Allen Hurns	22.10	Jeremy Maclin	12.50
RB	Anthony Dixon	5.40	Anthony Dixon	5.40
RB	Khiry Robinson	4.58	Khiry Robinson	4.58
TE	Martellus Bennett	5.20	Martellus Bennett	5.20
W/R/T	Delanie Walker	5.60	Delanie Walker	5.60
K	Stephen Gostkowski	15.00	Stephen Gostkowski	15.00
DEF	Eagles	15.40	Eagles	15.40

Carried by One Guy: Andy Dalton, 29.04 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Doug Martin scored 37.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 6 – 12, 2015

Joe Shore

145.28

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

136.27

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.80 points left. Optimal 155.08 vs. actual 145.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	25.30	Tom Brady	25.30
WR	Julian Edelman	22.00	Julio Jones	15.20
WR	Julio Jones	15.20	Keenan Allen	8.70
WR	Keenan Allen	8.70	Julian Edelman	22.00
RB	DeMarco Murray	21.50	DeMarco Murray	21.50
RB	Ronnie Hillman	3.10	Antonio Andrews	12.90
TE	Dwayne Allen	2.60	Dwayne Allen	2.60
W/R/T	Chris Johnson	12.30	Chris Johnson	12.30
K	Josh Brown	11.00	Josh Brown	11.00
DEF	Broncos	23.58	Broncos	23.58

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 25.30 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.20 points left. Optimal 152.47 vs. actual 136.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	30.74	Eli Manning	30.74
WR	Calvin Johnson	9.20	Emmanuel Sanders	17.68
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	17.68	Amari Cooper	7.26
WR	Amari Cooper	7.26	Calvin Johnson	9.20
RB	C.J. Anderson	5.00	Devonta Freeman	31.20
RB	Devonta Freeman	31.20	Rashad Jennings	8.70
TE	Owen Daniels	0.00	Larry Donnell	12.50
W/R/T	Todd Gurley	17.90	Todd Gurley	17.90
K	Dan Bailey	7.00	Dan Bailey	7.00
DEF	Rams	10.29	Rams	10.29

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Devonta Freeman, 31.20 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 25.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 6 – 12, 2015

Demich

137.14

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Josh

129.51

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.20 points left. Optimal 144.34 vs. actual 137.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	6.64	Peyton Manning	6.64
WR	Doug Baldwin	8.50	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.60
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	23.90	Odell Beckham Jr.	23.90
WR	Allen Robinson	22.70	Allen Robinson	22.70
RB	Matt Forte	19.40	Duke Johnson	10.70
RB	Duke Johnson	10.70	Matt Forte	19.40
TE	Jason Witten	3.80	Antonio Gates	25.70
W/R/T	Antonio Gates	25.70	Melvin Gordon III	10.90
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Bengals	9.80	Bengals	9.80

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Gates, 25.70 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.40 points left. Optimal 138.91 vs. actual 129.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Bradford	19.62	Sam Bradford	19.62
WR	A.J. Green	10.80	Golden Tate	10.20
WR	Leonard Hankerson	1.80	A.J. Green	10.80
WR	Brandin Cooks	21.20	Brandin Cooks	21.20
RB	Frank Gore	15.80	Giovani Bernard	12.60
RB	Giovani Bernard	12.60	Frank Gore	15.80
TE	Ladarius Green	7.50	Zach Ertz	8.50
W/R/T	Danny Woodhead	10.10	Danny Woodhead	10.10
K	Sebastian Janikowski	6.00	Sebastian Janikowski	6.00
DEF	Packers	24.09	Packers	24.09

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Packers, 24.09 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Gates scored 25.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–2	2.091	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	1–4	0.818	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Martin	1–4	1.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	4–1	3.182	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Miller	4–1	3.364	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Adam	3–2	2.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	5–0	4.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	4–1	3.273	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Demich	1–4	2.273	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Krajcik	1–4	2.545	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Big Hut	1–4	2.091	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Josh	2–3	1.909	+2.0	+0.182	1 / 1

2015 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5