2015 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2015

j-mart

86.38

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller

134.37

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.30 points left. Optimal 100.68 vs. actual 86.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	16.26	Aaron Rodgers	16.26
WR	Marques Colston	3.90	Antonio Brown	7.72
WR	Antonio Brown	7.72	Jermaine Kearse	9.40
WR	Jermaine Kearse	9.40	Marques Colston	3.90
RB	Jonathan Stewart	5.00	Ronnie Hillman	19.30
RB	Justin Forsett	17.00	Justin Forsett	17.00
TE	Travis Kelce	5.40	Travis Kelce	5.40
W/R/T	Joseph Randle	8.60	Joseph Randle	8.60
K	Justin Tucker	15.00	Justin Tucker	15.00
DEF	Texans	-1.90	Texans	-1.90

Carried by One Guy: Justin Forsett, 17.00 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.82 points left. Optimal 157.19 vs. actual 134.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	28.22	Philip Rivers	28.22
WR	James Jones	12.30	Eric Decker	12.60
WR	Percy Harvin	4.88	Vincent Jackson	27.70
WR	Eric Decker	12.60	James Jones	12.30
RB	Jamaal Charles	17.50	Mark Ingram II	15.80
RB	Mark Ingram II	15.80	Jamaal Charles	17.50
TE	Tyler Eifert	8.40	Tyler Eifert	8.40
W/R/T	T.J. Yeldon	13.90	T.J. Yeldon	13.90
K	Stephen Hauschka	11.00	Stephen Hauschka	11.00
DEF	Jets	9.77	Jets	9.77

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 28.22 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2015

Horgan

103.32

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

116.29

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.00 points left. Optimal 104.32 vs. actual 103.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	11.84	Derek Carr	11.84
WR	Brandon Marshall	18.30	Demaryius Thomas	13.80
WR	Demaryius Thomas	13.80	Donte Moncrief	10.50
WR	Donte Moncrief	10.50	Brandon Marshall	18.30
RB	Eddie Lacy	9.80	Eddie Lacy	9.80
RB	Isaiah Crowell	14.00	Isaiah Crowell	14.00
TE	Maxx Williams	2.70	Jared Cook	3.70
W/R/T	Alfred Morris	7.50	Alfred Morris	7.50
K	Adam Vinatieri	11.00	Adam Vinatieri	11.00
DEF	Bills	3.88	Bills	3.88

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Marshall, 18.30 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Blake Bortles scored 19.02; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.30 points left. Optimal 132.59 vs. actual 116.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	19.02	Blake Bortles	19.02
WR	T.Y. Hilton	10.20	T.Y. Hilton	10.20
WR	Jarvis Landry	13.68	Jarvis Landry	13.68
WR	John Brown	12.30	John Brown	12.30
RB	Adrian Peterson	17.40	David Johnson	14.48
RB	Lamar Miller	4.10	Adrian Peterson	17.40
TE	Charles Clay	17.60	Charles Clay	17.60
W/R/T	Ameer Abdullah	6.48	Terrance Williams	12.40
K	Chandler Catanzaro	14.00	Chandler Catanzaro	14.00
DEF	Cardinals	1.51	Cardinals	1.51

Carried by One Guy: Blake Bortles, 19.02 points (16.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2015

Kev

114.84

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Demich

92.73

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.70 points left. Optimal 137.54 vs. actual 114.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	14.46	Drew Brees	24.36
WR	Malcom Floyd	2.50	DeAndre Hopkins	22.20
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	22.20	Mike Evans	4.70
WR	Mike Evans	4.70	Malcom Floyd	2.50
RB	Doug Martin	24.80	Doug Martin	24.80
RB	Le'Veon Bell	26.50	Le'Veon Bell	26.50
TE	Greg Olsen	3.80	Greg Olsen	3.80
W/R/T	Kenny Britt	0.00	Charles Sims	12.80
K	Dan Carpenter	6.00	Dan Carpenter	6.00
DEF	Seahawks	9.88	Seahawks	9.88

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 26.50 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.10 points left. Optimal 118.83 vs. actual 92.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	8.32	Peyton Manning	8.32
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	1.50	Doug Baldwin	11.10
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	6.30	Odell Beckham Jr.	6.30
WR	Allen Robinson	10.00	Allen Robinson	10.00
RB	Matt Forte	15.50	Duke Johnson	22.10
RB	Melvin Gordon III	5.60	Matt Forte	15.50
TE	Jason Witten	7.70	Jason Witten	7.70
W/R/T	Karlos Williams	14.50	Karlos Williams	14.50
K	Mason Crosby	5.00	Mason Crosby	5.00
DEF	Panthers	18.31	Panthers	18.31

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Panthers, 18.31 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Le'Veon Bell scored 26.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2015

Joe Shore

111.31

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

107.19

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.30 points left. Optimal 129.61 vs. actual 111.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	14.14	Matt Ryan	14.14
WR	Pierre Garcon	15.00	Keenan Allen	15.30
WR	Julio Jones	5.80	Pierre Garcon	15.00
WR	Keenan Allen	15.30	Michael Crabtree	10.50
RB	Chris Ivory	24.60	C.J. Spiller	19.40
RB	DeMarco Murray	5.80	Chris Ivory	24.60
TE	Jordan Reed	4.20	Jordan Reed	4.20
W/R/T	Chris Johnson	10.90	Chris Johnson	10.90
K	Josh Brown	4.00	Josh Brown	4.00
DEF	Broncos	11.57	Broncos	11.57

Carried by One Guy: Chris Ivory, 24.60 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.70 points left. Optimal 127.89 vs. actual 107.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	20.44	Andy Dalton	20.44
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	14.90	Jordan Matthews	6.50
WR	Jeremy Maclin	22.30	Ted Ginn Jr.	14.90
WR	Jordan Matthews	6.50	Jeremy Maclin	22.30
RB	Fred Jackson	6.40	Fred Jackson	6.40
RB	Marshawn Lynch	0.00	Marshawn Lynch	0.00
TE	Martellus Bennett	19.80	Martellus Bennett	19.80
W/R/T	Steve Smith	4.40	Allen Hurns	25.10
K	Nick Folk	9.00	Nick Folk	9.00
DEF	Eagles	3.45	Eagles	3.45

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Maclin, 22.30 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Chris Ivory scored 24.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2015

Adam

73.10

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

114.41

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.30 points left. Optimal 73.40 vs. actual 73.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	17.98	Eli Manning	18.28
WR	Anquan Boldin	2.70	Randall Cobb	6.90
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	11.40	Anquan Boldin	2.70
WR	Randall Cobb	6.90	Larry Fitzgerald	11.40
RB	Arian Foster	3.00	Latavius Murray	7.60
RB	Latavius Murray	7.60	Arian Foster	3.00
TE	Kyle Rudolph	1.70	Kyle Rudolph	1.70
W/R/T	Lance Dunbar	5.74	Lance Dunbar	5.74
K	Brandon McManus	12.00	Brandon McManus	12.00
DEF	Dolphins	4.08	Dolphins	4.08

Carried by One Guy: Carson Palmer, 17.98 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.20 points left. Optimal 138.61 vs. actual 114.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	12.32	Ryan Tannehill	12.32
WR	Calvin Johnson	7.10	Emmanuel Sanders	8.34
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	8.34	Amari Cooper	13.04
WR	Amari Cooper	13.04	Calvin Johnson	7.10
RB	C.J. Anderson	7.50	Devonta Freeman	35.40
RB	Devonta Freeman	35.40	Todd Gurley	19.10
TE	Larry Donnell	6.30	Owen Daniels	7.90
W/R/T	Stevie Johnson	5.20	Rashad Jennings	16.20
K	Dan Bailey	8.00	Dan Bailey	8.00
DEF	Rams	11.21	Rams	11.21

Carried by One Guy: Devonta Freeman, 35.40 points (30.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2015

Martin

95.66

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh

107.96

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.50 points left. Optimal 112.16 vs. actual 95.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	16.06	Cam Newton	16.06
WR	Travis Benjamin	11.72	Torrey Smith	6.40
WR	Rishard Matthews	2.10	Kamar Aiken	16.20
WR	Ty Montgomery II	4.00	Travis Benjamin	11.72
RB	Jeremy Hill	24.00	Jeremy Hill	24.00
RB	Carlos Hyde	2.70	Carlos Hyde	2.70
TE	Jimmy Graham	4.90	Jimmy Graham	4.90
W/R/T	Mike Wallace	18.30	Mike Wallace	18.30
K	Matt Bryant	6.00	Matt Bryant	6.00
DEF	Colts	5.88	Colts	5.88

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Hill, 24.00 points (25.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Sam Bradford scored 24.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.60 points left. Optimal 141.56 vs. actual 107.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Bradford	24.20	Sam Bradford	24.20
WR	Golden Tate	5.00	A.J. Green	11.70
WR	A.J. Green	11.70	Leonard Hankerson	21.30
WR	Brandin Cooks	4.50	Rueben Randle	10.60
RB	Frank Gore	9.20	Giovani Bernard	12.32
RB	Giovani Bernard	12.32	Frank Gore	9.20
TE	Zach Ertz	2.10	Ladarius Green	13.30
W/R/T	Danny Woodhead	15.80	Danny Woodhead	15.80
K	Sebastian Janikowski	8.00	Sebastian Janikowski	8.00
DEF	Packers	15.14	Packers	15.14

Carried by One Guy: Sam Bradford, 24.20 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–1	2.091	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	1–3	0.727	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Martin	1–3	1.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	3–1	2.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	3–1	3.000	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Adam	2–2	2.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	4–0	3.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	3–1	2.364	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Demich	0–4	1.455	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Krajcik	1–3	2.091	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Big Hut	1–3	1.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	2–2	1.273	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2015 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Josh lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4