2015 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2015

j-mart

118.92

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Demich

96.89

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.30 points left. Optimal 141.22 vs. actual 118.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	6.18	Matthew Stafford	9.18
WR	Andre Johnson	16.10	Antonio Brown	13.70
WR	Antonio Brown	13.70	Kendall Wright	4.80
WR	Kendall Wright	4.80	Andre Johnson	16.10
RB	Justin Forsett	7.90	C.J. Spiller	10.60
RB	Latavius Murray	14.40	Latavius Murray	14.40
TE	Travis Kelce	13.90	Travis Kelce	13.90
W/R/T	C.J. Spiller	10.60	Ben Watson	27.20
K	Justin Tucker	19.00	Justin Tucker	19.00
DEF	Steelers	12.34	Steelers	12.34

Carried by One Guy: Justin Tucker, 19.00 points (16.0% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.16 points left. Optimal 115.05 vs. actual 96.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	3.04	Peyton Manning	13.60
WR	Brandon LaFell	6.70	Brandon LaFell	6.70
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	2.40	Doug Baldwin	5.00
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	37.00	Odell Beckham Jr.	37.00
RB	Matt Forte	8.90	Duke Johnson	8.10
RB	Duke Johnson	8.10	Matt Forte	8.90
TE	Jason Witten	2.60	Antonio Gates	7.60
W/R/T	Melvin Gordon III	8.60	Melvin Gordon III	8.60
K	Cairo Santos	9.00	Cairo Santos	9.00
DEF	Panthers	10.55	Panthers	10.55

Carried by One Guy: Odell Beckham Jr., 37.00 points (38.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2015

Horgan

111.82

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Kev

136.80

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.70 points left. Optimal 119.52 vs. actual 111.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	9.90	Ryan Tannehill	9.90
WR	Nate Washington	15.40	Demaryius Thomas	22.80
WR	Brandon Marshall	17.30	Nate Washington	15.40
WR	Demaryius Thomas	22.80	Brandon Marshall	17.30
RB	LeGarrette Blount	7.90	LeGarrette Blount	7.90
RB	Eddie Lacy	11.20	Eddie Lacy	11.20
TE	Jimmy Graham	11.00	Jimmy Graham	11.00
W/R/T	Mike Wallace	0.00	Theo Riddick	7.70
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Vikings	10.32	Vikings	10.32

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 22.80 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drew Brees scored 46.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.10 points left. Optimal 142.90 vs. actual 136.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	46.30	Drew Brees	46.30
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	19.40	DeAndre Hopkins	19.40
WR	Mike Evans	6.30	Mike Evans	6.30
WR	Stefon Diggs	18.50	Stefon Diggs	18.50
RB	Doug Martin	8.30	Doug Martin	8.30
RB	Le'Veon Bell	6.80	Le'Veon Bell	6.80
TE	Greg Olsen	16.90	Greg Olsen	16.90
W/R/T	Reggie Bush	0.00	Charles Sims	6.10
K	Josh Lambo	9.00	Josh Lambo	9.00
DEF	Seahawks	5.30	Seahawks	5.30

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 46.30 points (33.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2015

Martin

105.55

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

141.88

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.40 points left. Optimal 111.95 vs. actual 105.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	18.02	Cam Newton	18.02
WR	Travis Benjamin	4.48	Kamar Aiken	9.20
WR	Rishard Matthews	9.70	Travis Benjamin	4.48
WR	Donte Moncrief	2.80	Rishard Matthews	9.70
RB	Jeremy Hill	7.30	Jeremy Hill	7.30
RB	Antonio Andrews	9.70	Antonio Andrews	9.70
TE	Rob Gronkowski	22.30	Rob Gronkowski	22.30
W/R/T	Alfred Blue	9.70	Alfred Blue	9.70
K	Matt Bryant	6.00	Matt Bryant	6.00
DEF	Patriots	15.55	Patriots	15.55

Carried by One Guy: Rob Gronkowski, 22.30 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.80 points left. Optimal 177.68 vs. actual 141.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	32.34	Tom Brady	32.34
WR	Julian Edelman	24.36	Julio Jones	28.20
WR	Julio Jones	28.20	Michael Floyd	20.60
WR	Keenan Allen	12.00	Julian Edelman	24.36
RB	Chris Johnson	8.90	Ronnie Hillman	18.00
RB	Chris Ivory	5.60	Chris Johnson	8.90
TE	Jordan Cameron	4.40	Jordan Cameron	4.40
W/R/T	Martavis Bryant	6.90	Michael Crabtree	21.70
K	Josh Brown	7.00	Josh Brown	7.00
DEF	Rams	12.18	Rams	12.18

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 32.34 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2015

Fischer

83.27

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam

140.74

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.38 points left. Optimal 89.65 vs. actual 83.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	8.48	Ben Roethlisberger	8.48
WR	T.Y. Hilton	2.32	Terrance Williams	3.00
WR	Jarvis Landry	11.64	Jarvis Landry	11.64
WR	John Brown	0.00	Tyler Lockett	5.70
RB	Adrian Peterson	13.90	Lamar Miller	11.90
RB	Lamar Miller	11.90	Adrian Peterson	13.90
TE	Richard Rodgers	2.60	Richard Rodgers	2.60
W/R/T	Darren McFadden	14.30	Darren McFadden	14.30
K	Chandler Catanzaro	10.00	Chandler Catanzaro	10.00
DEF	Cardinals	8.13	Cardinals	8.13

Carried by One Guy: Darren McFadden, 14.30 points (17.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.74 points left. Optimal 156.48 vs. actual 140.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	31.56	Carson Palmer	31.56
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	16.90	Randall Cobb	6.70
WR	Randall Cobb	6.70	Willie Snead IV	22.00
WR	Willie Snead IV	22.00	Larry Fitzgerald	16.90
RB	Jonathan Stewart	12.80	Dion Lewis	20.20
RB	Dion Lewis	20.20	Jonathan Stewart	12.80
TE	Kyle Rudolph	3.20	Kyle Rudolph	3.20
W/R/T	Dez Bryant	2.20	Shane Vereen	17.94
K	Brandon McManus	10.00	Brandon McManus	10.00
DEF	Chiefs	15.18	Chiefs	15.18

Carried by One Guy: Carson Palmer, 31.56 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2015

Krajcik

77.06

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

137.87

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 77.06 vs. actual 77.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	9.64	Andy Dalton	9.64
WR	Steve Smith	10.70	Steve Smith	10.70
WR	Ted Ginn Jr.	7.36	Ted Ginn Jr.	7.36
WR	Jeremy Maclin	11.00	Jeremy Maclin	11.00
RB	Marshawn Lynch	9.20	Khiry Robinson	2.70
RB	Khiry Robinson	2.70	Marshawn Lynch	9.20
TE	Martellus Bennett	4.70	Martellus Bennett	4.70
W/R/T	Delanie Walker	9.20	Delanie Walker	9.20
K	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00
DEF	Saints	0.56	Saints	0.56

Carried by One Guy: Stephen Gostkowski, 12.00 points (15.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.00 points left. Optimal 160.87 vs. actual 137.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	40.00	Eli Manning	40.00
WR	Roddy White	3.40	Amari Cooper	7.30
WR	Calvin Johnson	11.00	Calvin Johnson	11.00
WR	Amari Cooper	7.30	Stevie Johnson	3.80
RB	Devonta Freeman	16.10	Devonta Freeman	16.10
RB	Todd Gurley	24.10	Todd Gurley	24.10
TE	Larry Donnell	2.70	Owen Daniels	5.90
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	3.70	C.J. Anderson	19.10
K	Nick Folk	9.00	Dan Bailey	13.00
DEF	Texans	20.57	Texans	20.57

Carried by One Guy: Eli Manning, 40.00 points (29.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 27 – Nov 2, 2015

Miller

133.82

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Josh

123.69

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.20 points left. Optimal 137.02 vs. actual 133.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	26.04	Philip Rivers	26.04
WR	James Jones	0.70	Eric Decker	15.00
WR	Eric Decker	15.00	Alshon Jeffery	24.60
WR	Alshon Jeffery	24.60	Tavon Austin	24.00
RB	Mark Ingram II	13.90	Mark Ingram II	13.90
RB	Charcandrick West	20.20	Charcandrick West	20.20
TE	Tyler Eifert	5.90	Tyler Eifert	5.90
W/R/T	Tavon Austin	24.00	Eric Ebron	3.90
K	Stephen Hauschka	5.00	Stephen Hauschka	5.00
DEF	Jets	-1.52	Jets	-1.52

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 26.04 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.60 points left. Optimal 127.29 vs. actual 123.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	14.74	Andrew Luck	14.74
WR	Golden Tate	8.94	Golden Tate	8.94
WR	A.J. Green	25.30	A.J. Green	25.30
WR	Brandin Cooks	23.50	Brandin Cooks	23.50
RB	Frank Gore	10.70	Frank Gore	10.70
RB	Danny Woodhead	5.50	Danny Woodhead	5.50
TE	Gary Barnidge	14.80	Gary Barnidge	14.80
W/R/T	Giovani Bernard	4.40	Rueben Randle	8.00
K	Blair Walsh	13.00	Blair Walsh	13.00
DEF	Falcons	2.81	Falcons	2.81

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 25.30 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Philip Rivers scored 26.04; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–4	3.182	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 0
Horgan	2–6	1.909	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Martin	1–7	1.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	6–2	4.909	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Miller	6–2	5.727	-3.5	-0.318	1 / 2
Adam	5–3	3.909	+4.5	+0.409	1 / 0
Joe Shore	8–0	7.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	6–2	5.455	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Demich	1–7	2.727	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Krajcik	2–6	3.364	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Big Hut	4–4	4.364	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Josh	3–5	3.545	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 2

2015 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8