2015 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 13 – 19, 2015

j-mart

102.89

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

162.83

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.34 points left. Optimal 120.23 vs. actual 102.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	19.60	Aaron Rodgers	19.60
WR	Pierre Garcon	11.30	Kendall Wright	5.40
WR	Antonio Brown	4.06	Andre Johnson	5.00
WR	Kendall Wright	5.40	Pierre Garcon	11.30
RB	Justin Forsett	13.60	Jonathan Stewart	21.10
RB	C.J. Spiller	4.70	Justin Forsett	13.60
TE	Travis Kelce	11.30	Travis Kelce	11.30
W/R/T	Julius Thomas	17.30	Julius Thomas	17.30
K	Justin Tucker	7.00	Justin Tucker	7.00
DEF	Chiefs	8.63	Chiefs	8.63

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 19.60 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.20 points left. Optimal 192.03 vs. actual 162.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	24.48	Tom Brady	24.48
WR	Julian Edelman	14.36	Keenan Allen	24.70
WR	Julio Jones	12.30	Martavis Bryant	31.50
WR	Keenan Allen	24.70	Julian Edelman	14.36
RB	Chris Ivory	29.10	Chris Ivory	29.10
RB	DeMarco Murray	22.10	DeMarco Murray	22.10
TE	Jordan Cameron	10.50	Jordan Cameron	10.50
W/R/T	Chris Johnson	5.00	Ronnie Hillman	15.00
K	Josh Brown	1.00	Josh Brown	1.00
DEF	Broncos	19.29	Broncos	19.29

Carried by One Guy: Chris Ivory, 29.10 points (17.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 13 – 19, 2015

Horgan

114.94

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Adam

105.79

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.20 points left. Optimal 138.14 vs. actual 114.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Flacco	19.72	Joe Flacco	19.72
WR	Brandon Marshall	20.60	Demaryius Thomas	18.10
WR	Demaryius Thomas	18.10	Donte Moncrief	15.90
WR	Donte Moncrief	15.90	Brandon Marshall	20.60
RB	LeGarrette Blount	22.90	James Starks	26.20
RB	Eddie Lacy	3.00	LeGarrette Blount	22.90
TE	Jacob Tamme	4.70	Jacob Tamme	4.70
W/R/T	Theo Riddick	9.30	Theo Riddick	9.30
K	Adam Vinatieri	2.00	Adam Vinatieri	2.00
DEF	Bills	-1.28	Bills	-1.28

Carried by One Guy: LeGarrette Blount, 22.90 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.50 points left. Optimal 106.29 vs. actual 105.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	18.74	Carson Palmer	18.74
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	13.30	Willie Snead IV	7.50
WR	Randall Cobb	4.80	Anquan Boldin	14.70
WR	Willie Snead IV	7.50	Larry Fitzgerald	13.30
RB	Arian Foster	19.70	Dion Lewis	5.40
RB	Dion Lewis	5.40	Arian Foster	19.70
TE	Heath Miller	1.00	Heath Miller	1.00
W/R/T	Anquan Boldin	14.70	Denard Robinson	5.30
K	Brandon McManus	12.00	Brandon McManus	12.00
DEF	Vikings	8.65	Vikings	8.65

Carried by One Guy: Arian Foster, 19.70 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: LeGarrette Blount scored 22.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 13 – 19, 2015

Martin

96.85

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller

139.43

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.52 points left. Optimal 129.37 vs. actual 96.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	19.76	Cam Newton	19.76
WR	Mike Wallace	3.30	Torrey Smith	17.10
WR	Travis Benjamin	18.88	Travis Benjamin	18.88
WR	Ty Montgomery II	3.08	Rishard Matthews	11.50
RB	Jeremy Hill	13.40	Jeremy Hill	13.40
RB	Carlos Hyde	7.00	Carlos Hyde	7.00
TE	Rob Gronkowski	12.60	Rob Gronkowski	12.60
W/R/T	Kamar Aiken	9.70	Jimmy Graham	20.00
K	Matt Bryant	3.00	Matt Bryant	3.00
DEF	Patriots	6.13	Patriots	6.13

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 19.76 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.00 points left. Optimal 143.43 vs. actual 139.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	30.12	Philip Rivers	30.12
WR	James Jones	10.00	Eric Decker	11.90
WR	Eric Decker	11.90	Alshon Jeffery	26.70
WR	Alshon Jeffery	26.70	James Jones	10.00
RB	Mark Ingram II	19.10	Mark Ingram II	19.10
RB	Charcandrick West	2.40	Andre Ellington	6.40
TE	Tyler Eifert	11.00	Tyler Eifert	11.00
W/R/T	Andre Ellington	6.40	Marquess Wilson	6.40
K	Stephen Hauschka	14.00	Stephen Hauschka	14.00
DEF	Jets	7.81	Jets	7.81

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 30.12 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 13 – 19, 2015

Demich

99.21

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

118.20

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.10 points left. Optimal 118.31 vs. actual 99.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	9.60	Peyton Manning	9.60
WR	Doug Baldwin	3.80	Doug Baldwin	3.80
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	15.60	Odell Beckham Jr.	15.60
WR	Allen Robinson	17.60	Allen Robinson	17.60
RB	Matt Forte	18.40	Duke Johnson	7.10
RB	Duke Johnson	7.10	Matt Forte	18.40
TE	Antonio Gates	14.00	Antonio Gates	14.00
W/R/T	Melvin Gordon III	0.90	Marvin Jones Jr.	20.00
K	Mason Crosby	7.00	Mason Crosby	7.00
DEF	Bengals	5.21	Bengals	5.21

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Matt Forte, 18.40 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Andy Dalton scored 21.52; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.80 points left. Optimal 151.00 vs. actual 118.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	21.52	Andy Dalton	21.52
WR	Jeremy Maclin	6.30	Sammy Watkins	12.80
WR	Jordan Matthews	6.90	Allen Hurns	10.00
WR	Allen Hurns	10.00	Steve Smith	25.20
RB	Marshawn Lynch	11.90	Marshawn Lynch	11.90
RB	Khiry Robinson	5.70	LeSean McCoy	16.40
TE	Martellus Bennett	8.90	Martellus Bennett	8.90
W/R/T	LeSean McCoy	16.40	Delanie Walker	13.70
K	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00
DEF	Eagles	19.58	Eagles	19.58

Carried by One Guy: Andy Dalton, 21.52 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 13 – 19, 2015

Kev

131.93

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Big Hut

149.23

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 131.93 vs. actual 131.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	18.68	Drew Brees	18.68
WR	Cecil Shorts	8.30	Cecil Shorts	8.30
WR	Michael Floyd	13.50	Michael Floyd	13.50
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	33.80	DeAndre Hopkins	33.80
RB	Le'Veon Bell	8.80	Le'Veon Bell	8.80
RB	Tevin Coleman	2.00	Tevin Coleman	2.00
TE	Greg Olsen	24.60	Greg Olsen	24.60
W/R/T	Alfred Morris	3.70	Alfred Morris	3.70
K	Robbie Gould	11.00	Robbie Gould	11.00
DEF	Seahawks	7.55	Seahawks	7.55

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 33.80 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Devonta Freeman scored 33.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 149.23 vs. actual 149.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	8.76	Eli Manning	8.76
WR	Roddy White	9.80	Emmanuel Sanders	21.28
WR	Calvin Johnson	27.60	Roddy White	9.80
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	21.28	Calvin Johnson	27.60
RB	C.J. Anderson	8.60	C.J. Anderson	8.60
RB	Devonta Freeman	33.60	Devonta Freeman	33.60
TE	Larry Donnell	4.40	Larry Donnell	4.40
W/R/T	Rashad Jennings	7.80	Rashad Jennings	7.80
K	Nick Folk	10.00	Nick Folk	10.00
DEF	Texans	17.39	Texans	17.39

Carried by One Guy: Devonta Freeman, 33.60 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 13 – 19, 2015

Fischer

129.86

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Josh

115.65

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.50 points left. Optimal 137.36 vs. actual 129.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Blake Bortles	24.94	Blake Bortles	24.94
WR	T.Y. Hilton	16.40	T.Y. Hilton	16.40
WR	Jarvis Landry	14.22	Jarvis Landry	14.22
WR	John Brown	24.60	John Brown	24.60
RB	Adrian Peterson	6.20	Lamar Miller	20.80
RB	Lamar Miller	20.80	Ameer Abdullah	8.84
TE	Richard Rodgers	4.40	Charles Clay	10.70
W/R/T	Ameer Abdullah	8.84	Eddie Royal	7.40
K	Chandler Catanzaro	7.00	Chandler Catanzaro	7.00
DEF	Cardinals	2.46	Cardinals	2.46

Carried by One Guy: Blake Bortles, 24.94 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.70 points left. Optimal 125.35 vs. actual 115.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	29.98	Andrew Luck	29.98
WR	A.J. Green	5.60	Golden Tate	13.00
WR	Brandin Cooks	6.10	Rueben Randle	6.90
WR	Jamison Crowder	6.00	Brandin Cooks	6.10
RB	Frank Gore	10.40	Giovani Bernard	13.80
RB	Giovani Bernard	13.80	Frank Gore	10.40
TE	Gary Barnidge	17.40	Gary Barnidge	17.40
W/R/T	Danny Woodhead	9.60	Ladarius Green	11.00
K	Caleb Sturgis	9.00	Caleb Sturgis	9.00
DEF	Packers	7.77	Packers	7.77

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 29.98 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Blake Bortles scored 24.94; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–3	2.273	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	2–4	1.182	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Martin	1–5	1.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	5–1	3.818	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Miller	5–1	4.182	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Adam	3–3	2.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	6–0	5.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	4–2	4.000	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Demich	1–5	2.364	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Krajcik	2–4	3.091	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Big Hut	2–4	3.000	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Josh	2–4	2.364	+2.0	+0.182	1 / 1

2015 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Josh lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6