2014 season ledger
Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.
Actual and all-play standings
All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.
| Manager | W–L | PF | Expected wins | Luck points | Luck in wins | Lucky | Unlucky | All-play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam | 11–2 | 1690.87 | 8.636 | +0.5 | +0.045 | 1 | 0 | 66.4% |
| Fischer | 11–2 | 1690.38 | 8.727 | +0.5 | +0.045 | 1 | 0 | 67.1% |
| Horgan | 9–4 | 1609.69 | 8.091 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 2 | 2 | 62.2% |
| Joe Shore | 8–5 | 1738.24 | 8.273 | -1.0 | -0.091 | 0 | 2 | 63.6% |
| Josh | 7–6 | 1555.12 | 7.364 | -4.0 | -0.364 | 0 | 2 | 56.6% |
| Big Hut | 6–7 | 1501.26 | 6.364 | -1.0 | -0.091 | 3 | 3 | 49.0% |
| Martin | 6–7 | 1421.86 | 4.909 | -0.5 | -0.045 | 2 | 1 | 37.8% |
| j-mart | 5–8 | 1463.79 | 5.091 | +1.0 | +0.091 | 3 | 1 | 39.2% |
| Miller | 5–8 | 1446.51 | 4.909 | +3.5 | +0.318 | 3 | 0 | 37.8% |
| Demich | 4–9 | 1550.64 | 7.091 | -9.0 | -0.818 | 1 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Kev | 4–9 | 1385.58 | 4.818 | +1.5 | +0.136 | 1 | 0 | 37.1% |
| Krajcik | 2–11 | 1309.00 | 3.727 | -0.5 | -0.045 | 0 | 1 | 28.7% |
All-play order
- Fischer — 8.727 expected wins; 96–47–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Adam — 8.636 expected wins; 95–48–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Joe Shore — 8.273 expected wins; 91–52–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Horgan — 8.091 expected wins; 89–54–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Josh — 7.364 expected wins; 81–62–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Demich — 7.091 expected wins; 78–65–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Big Hut — 6.364 expected wins; 70–73–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- j-mart — 5.091 expected wins; 56–87–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Miller — 4.909 expected wins; 54–89–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Martin — 4.909 expected wins; 54–89–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Kev — 4.818 expected wins; 53–90–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Krajcik — 3.727 expected wins; 41–102–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Latest weekly receipts
All exact ties share the award.
Robbery of the Week
- DemichRank 4, 145.35 points, lost by 5.39. Open matchup
Get Out of Jail Free
- Big HutRank 8, 112.88 points, won by 20.94. Open matchup
Cumulative luck in wins
Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 0.00 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.09 | +0.09 |
| Miller | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.09 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Adam | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 |
| Horgan | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Demich | +0.14 | +0.14 | 0.00 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.55 | -0.59 | -0.59 | -0.59 | -0.59 | -0.59 | -0.82 |
| Fischer | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 |
| Josh | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.36 | -0.36 | -0.36 | -0.36 | -0.36 |
| Big Hut | -0.32 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.45 | -0.23 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.23 | -0.09 |
| Kev | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 |
| Joe Shore | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| Martin | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.36 | -0.36 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 |
| Krajcik | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 |
Schedule Swap
Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.
| Source team | Best owner | Record | Worst owner | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Josh | 8–5 (+3.0) | Kev | 2–11 (-3.0) |
| Miller | Joe Shore | 7–6 (+2.0) | Demich | 2–11 (-3.0) |
| Adam | Miller | 11–2 (0.0) | Demich | 7–6 (-4.0) |
| Horgan | Adam | 12–1 (+3.0) | Demich | 5–8 (-4.0) |
| Demich | Adam | 10–3 (+6.0) | Krajcik | 4–9 (0.0) |
| Fischer | Fischer | 11–2 (0.0) | Demich | 6–7 (-5.0) |
| Josh | Miller | 10–3 (+3.0) | Demich | 6–7 (-1.0) |
| Big Hut | Joe Shore | 8–5 (+2.0) | j-mart | 4–9 (-2.0) |
| Kev | Adam | 8–5 (+4.0) | Martin | 3–10 (-1.0) |
| Joe Shore | Martin | 11–2 (+3.0) | Krajcik | 6–7 (-2.0) |
| Martin | Adam | 8–5 (+2.0) | Krajcik | 3–10 (-3.0) |
| Krajcik | Joe Shore | 6–7 (+4.0) | Krajcik | 2–11 (0.0) |
Everybody's Super Bowl
Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.
| Manager | Mean excess | Meetings | Largest receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | +0.39 pts | 13 | Miller: +45.71 pts |
| Miller | -0.90 pts | 13 | Kev: +55.74 pts |
| Adam | -18.66 pts | 13 | Horgan: +34.88 pts |
| Horgan | -2.63 pts | 13 | Joe Shore: +47.89 pts |
| Demich | +13.97 pts | 13 | j-mart: +63.63 pts |
| Fischer | -6.00 pts | 13 | Krajcik: +29.67 pts |
| Josh | +3.46 pts | 13 | j-mart: +44.55 pts |
| Big Hut | -2.64 pts | 13 | Martin: +25.23 pts |
| Kev | +7.35 pts | 13 | Joe Shore: +53.97 pts |
| Joe Shore | -3.44 pts | 13 | Martin: +55.69 pts |
| Martin | -3.91 pts | 13 | Joe Shore: +43.90 pts |
| Krajcik | +13.02 pts | 13 | Miller: +72.64 pts |
Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row
Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.
| Manager | Difficulty | Games | PA/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 53.1% | 13 | 118.92 |
| Miller | 43.1% | 13 | 115.67 |
| Adam | 30.8% | 13 | 98.50 |
| Horgan | 43.8% | 13 | 115.40 |
| Demich | 67.7% | 13 | 130.86 |
| Fischer | 46.2% | 13 | 110.20 |
| Josh | 48.5% | 13 | 119.27 |
| Big Hut | 50.8% | 13 | 116.54 |
| Kev | 58.5% | 13 | 126.42 |
| Joe Shore | 47.7% | 13 | 113.90 |
| Martin | 46.2% | 13 | 116.16 |
| Krajcik | 63.8% | 13 | 130.69 |
Heart Attack Club
A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.
| Manager | Close record | Games | Win-credit rate | Closest win | Closest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Miller | 2–0 | 2 | 100.0% | 2.85 | None |
| Adam | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 4.95 | None |
| Horgan | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 4.10 | 1.58 |
| Demich | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 4.10 |
| Fischer | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 4.11 | None |
| Josh | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 4.95 |
| Big Hut | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Kev | 2–0 | 2 | 100.0% | 1.06 | None |
| Joe Shore | 0–2 | 2 | 0.0% | None | 2.85 |
| Martin | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Krajcik | 1–3 | 4 | 25.0% | 4.68 | 1.06 |
Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent
Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.
| Manager | Actual | All-play | Gap | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 38.5% | 39.2% | -0.7 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Miller | 38.5% | 37.8% | +0.7 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Adam | 84.6% | 66.4% | +18.2 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Horgan | 69.2% | 62.2% | +7.0 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Demich | 30.8% | 54.5% | -23.8 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Fischer | 84.6% | 67.1% | +17.5 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Josh | 53.8% | 56.6% | -2.8 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Big Hut | 46.2% | 49.0% | -2.8 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Kev | 30.8% | 37.1% | -6.3 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Joe Shore | 61.5% | 63.6% | -2.1 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Martin | 46.2% | 37.8% | +8.4 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Krajcik | 15.4% | 28.7% | -13.3 pp | Wasted Talent |
The Roller Coaster
Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.
| Manager | Volatility | Mean percentile | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 30.8 pp | 39.2% | 13 |
| Miller | 29.2 pp | 37.8% | 13 |
| Adam | 31.8 pp | 66.4% | 13 |
| Horgan | 21.6 pp | 62.2% | 13 |
| Demich | 21.1 pp | 54.5% | 13 |
| Fischer | 29.5 pp | 67.1% | 13 |
| Josh | 30.5 pp | 56.6% | 13 |
| Big Hut | 29.1 pp | 49.0% | 13 |
| Kev | 26.8 pp | 37.1% | 13 |
| Joe Shore | 30.0 pp | 63.6% | 13 |
| Martin | 33.6 pp | 37.8% | 13 |
| Krajcik | 26.4 pp | 28.7% | 13 |
Nemesis / Has Their Number
Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.
| Manager | Nemesis | Record | Has Their Number | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Adam | 0–2 | Demich | 1–0 |
| Miller | Kev | 0–1 | Krajcik | 2–0 |
| Adam | Horgan | 0–1 | Martin | 2–0 |
| Horgan | Big Hut | 0–1 | Adam | 1–0 |
| Demich | Joe Shore | 0–2 | Kev | 2–0 |
| Fischer | Horgan | 0–1 | Kev | 2–0 |
| Josh | Fischer | 0–1 | Krajcik | 2–0 |
| Big Hut | Fischer | 0–2 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Kev | Fischer | 0–2 | Miller | 1–0 |
| Joe Shore | Fischer | 0–1 | Demich | 2–0 |
| Martin | Adam | 0–2 | Big Hut | 1–0 |
| Krajcik | Miller | 0–2 | Demich | 1–0 |
Archived player statistics
Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.
Tinker Failures
League-wide superlative suppressed because coverage is incomplete. Available team-week receipts remain listed.
| Manager | Points left | Avoidable losses | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 182.28 | 3 | |
| Miller | 279.70 | 5 | |
| Adam | 152.02 | 0 | |
| Horgan | 166.54 | 2 | |
| Demich | 149.79 | 4 | |
| Fischer | 156.58 | 0 | |
| Josh | 123.66 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | 145.44 | 2 | |
| Kev | 197.90 | 3 | |
| Joe Shore | 300.19 | 3 | |
| Martin | 231.76 | 3 | |
| Krajcik | 240.46 | 4 |
Carried by One Guy
| Manager | Leading player | Share | Positive starter points | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Andrew Luck | 21.7% | 1463.79 | |
| Miller | Le'Veon Bell | 16.6% | 1446.51 | 13 weeks
|
| Adam | Jordy Nelson | 12.8% | 1698.89 | 13 weeks
|
| Horgan | Demaryius Thomas | 15.2% | 1609.99 | 13 weeks
|
| Demich | Peyton Manning | 18.6% | 1552.00 | 13 weeks |
| Fischer | Antonio Brown | 15.2% | 1692.83 | |
| Josh | DeMarco Murray | 16.5% | 1557.30 | 13 weeks
|
| Big Hut | Julio Jones | 13.0% | 1503.89 | |
| Kev | Drew Brees | 18.4% | 1389.44 | |
| Joe Shore | Aaron Rodgers | 16.8% | 1739.68 | 13 weeks |
| Martin | DeAndre Hopkins | 10.5% | 1422.74 | 13 weeks |
| Krajcik | Arian Foster | 15.6% | 1314.44 | 13 weeks |
Opponent's Final Boss
| Manager | Leading opponent | Damage | Leader encounters | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Jordy Nelson | 111.46 | 2 | |
| Miller | Reggie Wayne | 106.91 | 1 | |
| Adam | Alfred Morris | 9.64 | 1 | |
| Horgan | DeAndre Hopkins | 159.63 | 1 | |
| Demich | Arian Foster | 325.04 | 1 | |
| Fischer | Rob Gronkowski | 0.74 | 1 | |
| Josh | Randall Cobb | 122.09 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | Jimmy Graham | 154.26 | 1 | |
| Kev | Peyton Manning | 144.30 | 2 | |
| Joe Shore | Martavis Bryant | 198.66 | 1 | |
| Martin | Jeremy Maclin | 133.29 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | Andre Ellington | 292.33 | 1 |
Postseason scorecards
Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.