2014 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 9 – 15, 2014

j-mart

121.22

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Adam

126.83

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 41.02 points left. Optimal 162.24 vs. actual 121.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	18.88	Andrew Luck	18.88
WR	Steve Smith	10.10	Steve Smith	10.10
WR	Hakeem Nicks	0.10	Brandon Marshall	25.30
WR	Victor Cruz	8.50	Eddie Royal	10.52
RB	Darren Sproles	29.80	Bobby Rainey	20.90
RB	Eddie Lacy	7.10	Darren Sproles	29.80
TE	Larry Donnell	11.60	Larry Donnell	11.60
W/R/T	Chris Ivory	11.10	Chris Ivory	11.10
K	Shayne Graham	5.00	Shayne Graham	5.00
DEF	Cardinals	19.04	Cardinals	19.04

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Darren Sproles, 29.80 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jordy Nelson scored 33.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.80 points left. Optimal 137.63 vs. actual 126.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	14.44	Matthew Stafford	14.44
WR	Jordy Nelson	33.40	Randall Cobb	21.14
WR	Randall Cobb	21.14	Brian Quick	10.90
WR	Michael Floyd	2.40	Jordy Nelson	33.40
RB	Jamaal Charles	1.70	Joique Bell	10.70
RB	Joique Bell	10.70	Lamar Miller	6.30
TE	Martellus Bennett	13.20	Martellus Bennett	13.20
W/R/T	Lamar Miller	6.30	Kenny Stills	4.00
K	Justin Tucker	11.00	Justin Tucker	11.00
DEF	Bengals	12.55	Bengals	12.55

Carried by One Guy: Jordy Nelson, 33.40 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 9 – 15, 2014

Fischer

137.48

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev

86.86

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.30 points left. Optimal 158.78 vs. actual 137.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	11.04	Tony Romo	11.04
WR	Julian Edelman	19.32	Antonio Brown	13.76
WR	Antonio Brown	13.76	Mike Evans	6.90
WR	Mike Evans	6.90	Julian Edelman	19.32
RB	Knowshon Moreno	0.40	Terrance West	16.00
RB	LeSean McCoy	18.20	LeSean McCoy	18.20
TE	Greg Olsen	10.20	Greg Olsen	10.20
W/R/T	Terrance West	16.00	James Jones	21.70
K	Nick Novak	14.00	Nick Novak	14.00
DEF	Patriots	27.66	Patriots	27.66

Carried by One Guy: Patriots, 27.66 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.30 points left. Optimal 115.16 vs. actual 86.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	15.78	Drew Brees	15.78
WR	Marques Colston	0.00	Rueben Randle	11.90
WR	Cordarrelle Patterson	8.06	Cordarrelle Patterson	8.06
WR	Justin Hunter	3.60	Brian Hartline	6.10
RB	Shane Vereen	4.00	Shane Vereen	4.00
RB	Andre Ellington	10.60	Andre Ellington	10.60
TE	Zach Ertz	10.60	Zach Ertz	10.60
W/R/T	Toby Gerhart	2.70	Jeremy Hill	16.60
K	Adam Vinatieri	9.00	Adam Vinatieri	9.00
DEF	Bills	22.52	Bills	22.52

Carried by One Guy: Bills, 22.52 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 9 – 15, 2014

Josh

132.62

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

119.69

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.34 points left. Optimal 142.96 vs. actual 132.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	3.72	Tom Brady	9.96
WR	Pierre Garcon	1.70	Emmanuel Sanders	16.60
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	16.60	Sammy Watkins	23.70
WR	Sammy Watkins	23.70	Harry Douglas	5.80
RB	Danny Woodhead	8.00	DeMarco Murray	23.80
RB	DeMarco Murray	23.80	Danny Woodhead	8.00
TE	Julius Thomas	11.90	Julius Thomas	11.90
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	30.80	Jimmy Graham	30.80
K	Nick Folk	8.00	Nick Folk	8.00
DEF	Jets	4.40	Jets	4.40

Carried by One Guy: Jimmy Graham, 30.80 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.04 points left. Optimal 136.73 vs. actual 119.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	12.32	Andy Dalton	14.68
WR	Dez Bryant	23.30	Dez Bryant	23.30
WR	Julio Jones	18.30	Julio Jones	18.30
WR	Brandin Cooks	6.26	Mike Wallace	14.10
RB	Frank Gore	14.50	Alfred Morris	20.50
RB	Alfred Morris	20.50	Frank Gore	14.50
TE	Kyle Rudolph	7.80	Kyle Rudolph	7.80
W/R/T	Rashad Jennings	10.90	C.J. Spiller	17.74
K	Stephen Hauschka	3.00	Stephen Hauschka	3.00
DEF	49ers	2.81	49ers	2.81

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Dez Bryant, 23.30 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jimmy Graham scored 30.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 9 – 15, 2014

Demich

79.62

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

113.98

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.40 points left. Optimal 115.02 vs. actual 79.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	21.58	Peyton Manning	21.58
WR	Greg Jennings	0.90	Golden Tate	8.20
WR	Golden Tate	8.20	Mohamed Sanu	17.90
WR	A.J. Green	0.00	Dwayne Bowe	5.50
RB	Reggie Bush	4.20	Mark Ingram II	17.90
RB	Mark Ingram II	17.90	Reggie Bush	4.20
TE	Jason Witten	5.20	Jason Witten	5.20
W/R/T	Shonn Greene	4.00	Matt Asiata	16.90
K	Dan Bailey	19.00	Dan Bailey	19.00
DEF	Dolphins	-1.36	Dolphins	-1.36

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 21.58 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.72 points left. Optimal 128.70 vs. actual 113.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	30.64	Aaron Rodgers	30.64
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	8.10	Markus Wheaton	8.72
WR	Vincent Jackson	7.10	Larry Fitzgerald	8.10
WR	Jeremy Maclin	12.50	Jeremy Maclin	12.50
RB	Matt Forte	6.10	Jonathan Dwyer	9.10
RB	Trent Richardson	8.00	Stevan Ridley	18.10
TE	Antonio Gates	31.10	Antonio Gates	31.10
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	9.50	T.Y. Hilton	9.50
K	Blair Walsh	1.00	Blair Walsh	1.00
DEF	Seahawks	-0.06	Seahawks	-0.06

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Gates, 31.10 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 9 – 15, 2014

Horgan

87.83

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Martin

72.60

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.40 points left. Optimal 109.23 vs. actual 87.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	10.04	Matt Ryan	10.04
WR	Reggie Wayne	4.30	Demaryius Thomas	14.70
WR	Andre Johnson	10.40	Kendall Wright	4.60
WR	Demaryius Thomas	14.70	Andre Johnson	10.40
RB	Marshawn Lynch	14.30	Bernard Pierce	10.80
RB	Justin Forsett	9.20	Marshawn Lynch	14.30
TE	Rob Gronkowski	5.20	Rob Gronkowski	5.20
W/R/T	Kendall Wright	4.60	Ahmad Bradshaw	24.10
K	Matt Bryant	5.00	Matt Bryant	5.00
DEF	Texans	10.09	Texans	10.09

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 14.70 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.78 points left. Optimal 111.38 vs. actual 72.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jake Locker	10.26	Jay Cutler	25.54
WR	DeSean Jackson	2.40	DeAndre Hopkins	9.70
WR	Torrey Smith	1.50	Kelvin Benjamin	5.60
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	5.60	Michael Crabtree	17.70
RB	Pierre Thomas	4.70	Montee Ball	10.40
RB	Montee Ball	10.40	Pierre Thomas	4.70
TE	Travis Kelce	10.10	Travis Kelce	10.10
W/R/T	Zac Stacy	11.10	Zac Stacy	11.10
K	Mason Crosby	12.00	Mason Crosby	12.00
DEF	Broncos	4.54	Broncos	4.54

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Mason Crosby, 12.00 points (16.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 9 – 15, 2014

Miller

107.68

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Krajcik

103.72

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.70 points left. Optimal 121.38 vs. actual 107.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	19.14	Cam Newton	19.14
WR	Calvin Johnson	11.30	Eric Decker	14.30
WR	Percy Harvin	10.86	Calvin Johnson	11.30
WR	Keenan Allen	8.00	Percy Harvin	10.86
RB	Giovani Bernard	25.40	Giovani Bernard	25.40
RB	Le'Veon Bell	13.20	Le'Veon Bell	13.20
TE	Dennis Pitta	4.50	Dennis Pitta	4.50
W/R/T	Chris Johnson	2.60	Andrew Hawkins	10.00
K	Phil Dawson	6.00	Phil Dawson	6.00
DEF	Titans	6.68	Titans	6.68

Carried by One Guy: Giovani Bernard, 25.40 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.50 points left. Optimal 125.22 vs. actual 103.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	19.44	Philip Rivers	25.06
WR	Anquan Boldin	4.40	Doug Baldwin	5.18
WR	Roddy White	6.70	Anquan Boldin	4.40
WR	Allen Hurns	2.30	Roddy White	6.70
RB	Darren McFadden	13.80	Darren McFadden	13.80
RB	Arian Foster	24.00	Arian Foster	24.00
TE	Vernon Davis	5.40	Jared Cook	6.60
W/R/T	Nate Washington	0.60	Jonathan Stewart	12.40
K	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00
DEF	Panthers	14.08	Panthers	14.08

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Arian Foster, 24.00 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Giovani Bernard scored 25.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–2	1.182	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Miller	2–0	1.455	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	2–0	1.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	2–0	0.909	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Demich	1–1	0.455	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Fischer	2–0	1.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	2–0	1.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	0–2	1.455	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Kev	0–2	0.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–1	0.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	0–2	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–2	0.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2014 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2