2014 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 16 – 22, 2014

j-mart

99.12

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

115.04

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.48 points left. Optimal 135.60 vs. actual 99.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	34.30	Andrew Luck	34.30
WR	Steve Smith	14.60	Victor Cruz	21.20
WR	Brandon Marshall	1.10	Steve Smith	14.60
WR	Victor Cruz	21.20	Eddie Royal	18.32
RB	Darren Sproles	5.04	Chris Ivory	11.60
RB	Eddie Lacy	3.00	Bobby Rainey	10.00
TE	Jordan Cameron	2.80	Larry Donnell	5.50
W/R/T	Bobby Rainey	10.00	Hakeem Nicks	13.00
K	Shayne Graham	1.00	Shayne Graham	1.00
DEF	Cardinals	6.08	Cardinals	6.08

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 34.30 points (34.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Marshawn Lynch scored 26.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.70 points left. Optimal 123.74 vs. actual 115.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	23.64	Matt Ryan	23.64
WR	Reggie Wayne	8.20	Demaryius Thomas	7.10
WR	Andre Johnson	4.40	Terrance Williams	10.20
WR	Demaryius Thomas	7.10	Reggie Wayne	8.20
RB	Marshawn Lynch	26.30	Marshawn Lynch	26.30
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	15.30	Ahmad Bradshaw	15.30
TE	Rob Gronkowski	11.90	Rob Gronkowski	11.90
W/R/T	Justin Forsett	8.50	Steven Jackson	11.40
K	Matt Bryant	8.00	Matt Bryant	8.00
DEF	Texans	1.70	Texans	1.70

Carried by One Guy: Marshawn Lynch, 26.30 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 16 – 22, 2014

Miller

82.26

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam

109.58

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.54 points left. Optimal 112.80 vs. actual 82.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	12.70	Ben Roethlisberger	15.94
WR	Calvin Johnson	11.20	Andrew Hawkins	12.20
WR	Percy Harvin	7.96	Calvin Johnson	11.20
WR	Keenan Allen	2.70	Percy Harvin	7.96
RB	Giovani Bernard	17.90	Giovani Bernard	17.90
RB	Le'Veon Bell	18.70	Le'Veon Bell	18.70
TE	Dennis Pitta	2.70	Dennis Pitta	2.70
W/R/T	Chris Johnson	3.40	Fred Jackson	21.20
K	Phil Dawson	2.00	Phil Dawson	2.00
DEF	Ravens	3.00	Ravens	3.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 18.70 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.14 points left. Optimal 116.72 vs. actual 109.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	4.64	Matthew Stafford	4.64
WR	Jordy Nelson	8.40	Cecil Shorts	12.00
WR	Randall Cobb	4.86	Michael Floyd	15.90
WR	Michael Floyd	15.90	Jordy Nelson	8.40
RB	Joique Bell	3.30	Joique Bell	3.30
RB	Lamar Miller	17.20	Lamar Miller	17.20
TE	Martellus Bennett	19.90	Martellus Bennett	19.90
W/R/T	Brian Quick	13.20	Brian Quick	13.20
K	Justin Tucker	10.00	Justin Tucker	10.00
DEF	Bengals	12.18	Bengals	12.18

Carried by One Guy: Martellus Bennett, 19.90 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 16 – 22, 2014

Josh

124.42

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev

97.16

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.12 points left. Optimal 148.54 vs. actual 124.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	12.66	Kirk Cousins	29.58
WR	Pierre Garcon	27.30	Emmanuel Sanders	22.84
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	22.84	Harry Douglas	8.40
WR	Sammy Watkins	2.90	Pierre Garcon	27.30
RB	Danny Woodhead	0.10	DeMarco Murray	21.10
RB	DeMarco Murray	21.10	Andre Williams	1.80
TE	Julius Thomas	9.20	Julius Thomas	9.20
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	8.40	Jimmy Graham	8.40
K	Nick Folk	13.00	Nick Folk	13.00
DEF	Jets	6.92	Jets	6.92

Carried by One Guy: Pierre Garcon, 27.30 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.60 points left. Optimal 103.76 vs. actual 97.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	19.52	Drew Brees	19.52
WR	Marques Colston	9.50	Cordarrelle Patterson	10.80
WR	Rueben Randle	5.20	Malcom Floyd	10.80
WR	Cordarrelle Patterson	10.80	Marques Colston	9.50
RB	Donald Brown	11.40	Jeremy Hill	9.90
RB	Andre Ellington	9.00	Donald Brown	11.40
TE	Zach Ertz	2.40	Zach Ertz	2.40
W/R/T	Jeremy Hill	9.90	Brian Hartline	10.00
K	Adam Vinatieri	15.00	Adam Vinatieri	15.00
DEF	Bills	4.44	Bills	4.44

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 19.52 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Pierre Garcon scored 27.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 16 – 22, 2014

Fischer

122.19

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

91.08

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.60 points left. Optimal 127.79 vs. actual 122.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	16.08	Tony Romo	16.08
WR	Julian Edelman	14.04	Antonio Brown	26.34
WR	Antonio Brown	26.34	Alshon Jeffery	17.80
WR	Alshon Jeffery	17.80	Julian Edelman	14.04
RB	LeSean McCoy	2.20	Bishop Sankey	7.50
RB	Terrance West	11.10	Terrance West	11.10
TE	Greg Olsen	15.40	Greg Olsen	15.40
W/R/T	Khiry Robinson	6.90	Mike Evans	7.20
K	Nick Novak	6.00	Nick Novak	6.00
DEF	Patriots	6.33	Patriots	6.33

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 26.34 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.54 points left. Optimal 114.62 vs. actual 91.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	10.48	Russell Wilson	22.52
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	2.90	T.Y. Hilton	10.50
WR	Vincent Jackson	8.50	Vincent Jackson	8.50
WR	Jeremy Maclin	27.40	Jeremy Maclin	27.40
RB	Matt Forte	10.60	Trent Richardson	9.50
RB	Stevan Ridley	6.60	Matt Forte	10.60
TE	Antonio Gates	1.30	Antonio Gates	1.30
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	10.50	Isaiah Crowell	11.50
K	Dan Carpenter	5.00	Dan Carpenter	5.00
DEF	Eagles	7.80	Eagles	7.80

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Maclin, 27.40 points (30.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 16 – 22, 2014

Demich

120.23

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Martin

128.97

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.72 points left. Optimal 124.95 vs. actual 120.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	22.02	Peyton Manning	22.02
WR	Greg Jennings	9.50	A.J. Green	15.20
WR	Golden Tate	7.60	Mohamed Sanu	11.62
WR	A.J. Green	15.20	Greg Jennings	9.50
RB	Reggie Bush	18.90	Reggie Bush	18.90
RB	Matt Asiata	8.60	Shonn Greene	9.30
TE	Jason Witten	6.90	Jason Witten	6.90
W/R/T	Knile Davis	19.20	Knile Davis	19.20
K	Dan Bailey	10.00	Dan Bailey	10.00
DEF	Browns	2.31	Browns	2.31

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 22.02 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kelvin Benjamin scored 23.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.80 points left. Optimal 147.77 vs. actual 128.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	16.40	Jay Cutler	16.40
WR	Michael Crabtree	19.40	DeAndre Hopkins	16.60
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	16.60	Kelvin Benjamin	23.50
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	23.50	Michael Crabtree	19.40
RB	Pierre Thomas	12.60	Zac Stacy	14.60
RB	Montee Ball	3.40	Pierre Thomas	12.60
TE	Travis Kelce	11.10	Travis Kelce	11.10
W/R/T	Zac Stacy	14.60	DeSean Jackson	22.20
K	Mason Crosby	1.00	Mason Crosby	1.00
DEF	Broncos	10.37	Broncos	10.37

Carried by One Guy: Kelvin Benjamin, 23.50 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 16 – 22, 2014

Big Hut

140.22

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

75.73

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.36 points left. Optimal 140.58 vs. actual 140.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	19.20	Colin Kaepernick	19.20
WR	Dez Bryant	17.90	Dez Bryant	17.90
WR	Julio Jones	34.60	Julio Jones	34.60
WR	Brandin Cooks	11.34	Brandin Cooks	11.34
RB	Rashad Jennings	25.60	C.J. Spiller	8.06
RB	Alfred Morris	7.70	Rashad Jennings	25.60
TE	Kyle Rudolph	4.20	Kyle Rudolph	4.20
W/R/T	Mike Wallace	11.10	Mike Wallace	11.10
K	Stephen Hauschka	6.00	Stephen Hauschka	6.00
DEF	49ers	2.58	49ers	2.58

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 34.60 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.80 points left. Optimal 97.53 vs. actual 75.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	28.20	Nick Foles	28.20
WR	Anquan Boldin	6.60	Doug Baldwin	7.60
WR	Roddy White	0.00	Allen Hurns	12.80
WR	Doug Baldwin	7.60	Anquan Boldin	6.60
RB	Darren McFadden	8.50	Darren McFadden	8.50
RB	Arian Foster	0.00	Jonathan Stewart	6.50
TE	Jared Cook	11.00	Jared Cook	11.00
W/R/T	Jonathan Stewart	6.50	Wes Welker	9.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	8.00	Stephen Gostkowski	8.00
DEF	Panthers	-0.67	Panthers	-0.67

Carried by One Guy: Nick Foles, 28.20 points (36.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–3	1.545	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Miller	2–1	1.545	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	3–0	2.000	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	3–0	1.455	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Demich	1–2	1.091	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Fischer	3–0	2.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	3–0	2.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–2	2.455	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Kev	0–3	0.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–2	0.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–2	0.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–3	0.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2014 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Krajcik lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3