2014 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 4 – 8, 2014

j-mart

118.53

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Miller

153.46

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.80 points left. Optimal 143.33 vs. actual 118.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	28.70	Andrew Luck	28.70
WR	Steve Smith	23.30	Steve Smith	23.30
WR	Brandon Marshall	15.10	Brandon Marshall	15.10
WR	Victor Cruz	3.40	Hakeem Nicks	12.10
RB	Doug Martin	2.10	Chris Ivory	18.20
RB	Eddie Lacy	6.00	Eddie Lacy	6.00
TE	Jordan Cameron	5.70	Jordan Cameron	5.70
W/R/T	Darren Sproles	17.74	Darren Sproles	17.74
K	Shayne Graham	12.00	Shayne Graham	12.00
DEF	Cardinals	4.49	Cardinals	4.49

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 28.70 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.88 points left. Optimal 165.34 vs. actual 153.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh McCown	14.02	Ben Roethlisberger	19.40
WR	Calvin Johnson	33.90	Andrew Hawkins	12.70
WR	Percy Harvin	14.70	Calvin Johnson	33.90
WR	Keenan Allen	6.20	Percy Harvin	14.70
RB	Giovani Bernard	14.00	Giovani Bernard	14.00
RB	Le'Veon Bell	30.70	Le'Veon Bell	30.70
TE	Dennis Pitta	13.30	Dennis Pitta	13.30
W/R/T	Chris Johnson	17.60	Chris Johnson	17.60
K	Phil Dawson	4.00	Phil Dawson	4.00
DEF	Chiefs	5.04	Chiefs	5.04

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Johnson, 33.90 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 4 – 8, 2014

Demich

112.47

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Kev

106.68

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.50 points left. Optimal 126.97 vs. actual 112.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	22.46	Peyton Manning	22.46
WR	Danny Amendola	3.10	Golden Tate	12.70
WR	Golden Tate	12.70	A.J. Green	24.60
WR	A.J. Green	24.60	John Brown	9.90
RB	Reggie Bush	9.40	Mark Ingram II	18.60
RB	Mark Ingram II	18.60	Reggie Bush	9.40
TE	Jason Witten	2.40	Jason Witten	2.40
W/R/T	Shonn Greene	7.10	Greg Jennings	14.80
K	Dan Bailey	4.00	Dan Bailey	4.00
DEF	Lions	8.11	Lions	8.11

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 24.60 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.70 points left. Optimal 120.38 vs. actual 106.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	17.52	Drew Brees	17.52
WR	Marques Colston	13.50	Cordarrelle Patterson	23.26
WR	Rueben Randle	1.10	Malcom Floyd	13.00
WR	Cordarrelle Patterson	23.26	Marques Colston	13.50
RB	Adrian Peterson	10.30	Andre Ellington	8.50
RB	Toby Gerhart	6.70	Adrian Peterson	10.30
TE	Zach Ertz	15.20	Zach Ertz	15.20
W/R/T	Shane Vereen	15.60	Shane Vereen	15.60
K	Adam Vinatieri	5.00	Adam Vinatieri	5.00
DEF	Rams	-1.50	Rams	-1.50

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Cordarrelle Patterson, 23.26 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: A.J. Green scored 24.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 4 – 8, 2014

Fischer

134.88

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

128.77

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.30 points left. Optimal 136.18 vs. actual 134.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	9.24	Tony Romo	9.24
WR	Julian Edelman	14.90	Antonio Brown	23.02
WR	Antonio Brown	23.02	James Jones	10.90
WR	Alshon Jeffery	9.60	Julian Edelman	14.90
RB	LeSean McCoy	14.50	Ryan Mathews	13.00
RB	Ryan Mathews	13.00	LeSean McCoy	14.50
TE	Greg Olsen	18.30	Greg Olsen	18.30
W/R/T	Knowshon Moreno	21.40	Knowshon Moreno	21.40
K	Nick Novak	5.00	Nick Novak	5.00
DEF	Patriots	5.92	Patriots	5.92

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 23.02 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.18 points left. Optimal 147.95 vs. actual 128.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	17.14	Andy Dalton	20.34
WR	Dez Bryant	7.50	Julio Jones	15.10
WR	Julio Jones	15.10	Brandin Cooks	19.00
WR	Brandin Cooks	19.00	Mike Wallace	15.60
RB	Frank Gore	6.60	C.J. Spiller	14.48
RB	Alfred Morris	9.10	Alfred Morris	9.10
TE	Kyle Rudolph	8.60	Kyle Rudolph	8.60
W/R/T	Rashad Jennings	17.60	Rashad Jennings	17.60
K	Stephen Hauschka	9.00	Stephen Hauschka	9.00
DEF	49ers	19.13	49ers	19.13

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: 49ers, 19.13 points (14.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Brown scored 23.02; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 4 – 8, 2014

Horgan

123.32

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

103.39

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.40 points left. Optimal 148.72 vs. actual 123.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	33.42	Matt Ryan	33.42
WR	Reggie Wayne	14.30	Kendall Wright	13.60
WR	Andre Johnson	12.30	Reggie Wayne	14.30
WR	Demaryius Thomas	6.80	Andre Johnson	12.30
RB	Steven Jackson	5.70	Marshawn Lynch	26.90
RB	Marshawn Lynch	26.90	Ahmad Bradshaw	11.00
TE	Rob Gronkowski	12.00	Rob Gronkowski	12.00
W/R/T	Bernard Pierce	-0.30	Terrance Williams	13.00
K	Robbie Gould	9.00	Robbie Gould	9.00
DEF	Bears	3.20	Bears	3.20

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 33.42 points (27.0% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.58 points left. Optimal 123.97 vs. actual 103.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	9.56	Russell Wilson	18.54
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	2.70	T.Y. Hilton	6.60
WR	Vincent Jackson	5.60	Markus Wheaton	12.70
WR	Jeremy Maclin	17.70	Jeremy Maclin	17.70
RB	Matt Forte	20.90	Trent Richardson	6.60
RB	Trent Richardson	6.60	Matt Forte	20.90
TE	Antonio Gates	11.10	Antonio Gates	11.10
W/R/T	T.Y. Hilton	6.60	DeAngelo Williams	7.20
K	Blair Walsh	13.00	Blair Walsh	13.00
DEF	Seahawks	9.63	Seahawks	9.63

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Matt Forte, 20.90 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matt Ryan scored 33.42; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 4 – 8, 2014

Adam

128.29

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Martin

83.00

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.70 points left. Optimal 137.99 vs. actual 128.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	32.04	Matthew Stafford	32.04
WR	Jordy Nelson	12.80	Randall Cobb	14.80
WR	Randall Cobb	14.80	Michael Floyd	16.60
WR	Michael Floyd	16.60	Jordy Nelson	12.80
RB	Jamaal Charles	5.40	Joique Bell	12.10
RB	Joique Bell	12.10	Jamaal Charles	5.40
TE	Martellus Bennett	17.00	Martellus Bennett	17.00
W/R/T	Ben Tate	4.10	Lamar Miller	13.80
K	Justin Tucker	4.00	Justin Tucker	4.00
DEF	Bengals	9.45	Bengals	9.45

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 32.04 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.00 points left. Optimal 119.00 vs. actual 83.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	19.96	Jay Cutler	19.96
WR	DeSean Jackson	9.30	DeAndre Hopkins	16.90
WR	Michael Crabtree	3.50	Kelvin Benjamin	18.20
WR	Torrey Smith	6.50	DeSean Jackson	9.30
RB	Montee Ball	15.30	Montee Ball	15.30
RB	Zac Stacy	5.60	Carlos Hyde	11.00
TE	Jordan Reed	0.90	Travis Kelce	6.40
W/R/T	Pierre Thomas	11.90	Pierre Thomas	11.90
K	Mason Crosby	3.00	Mason Crosby	3.00
DEF	Broncos	7.04	Broncos	7.04

Carried by One Guy: Jay Cutler, 19.96 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 4 – 8, 2014

Josh

121.28

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

104.74

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.08 points left. Optimal 124.36 vs. actual 121.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	8.88	Tom Brady	10.26
WR	Pierre Garcon	12.70	Emmanuel Sanders	11.80
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	11.80	Sammy Watkins	4.60
WR	Sammy Watkins	4.60	Pierre Garcon	12.70
RB	Danny Woodhead	1.60	DeMarco Murray	21.80
RB	DeMarco Murray	21.80	Maurice Jones-Drew	3.30
TE	Julius Thomas	33.90	Julius Thomas	33.90
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	12.20	Jimmy Graham	12.20
K	Nick Folk	9.00	Nick Folk	9.00
DEF	Jets	4.80	Jets	4.80

Carried by One Guy: Julius Thomas, 33.90 points (28.0% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.60 points left. Optimal 121.34 vs. actual 104.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	16.88	Nick Foles	16.88
WR	Anquan Boldin	13.90	Anquan Boldin	13.90
WR	Roddy White	15.70	Roddy White	15.70
WR	Doug Baldwin	2.90	Nate Washington	7.90
RB	Darren McFadden	2.60	LeGarrette Blount	6.60
RB	Arian Foster	13.00	Arian Foster	13.00
TE	Vernon Davis	18.40	Vernon Davis	18.40
W/R/T	Kenny Britt	0.00	Jared Cook	7.60
K	Stephen Gostkowski	10.00	Stephen Gostkowski	10.00
DEF	Panthers	11.36	Panthers	11.36

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Vernon Davis, 18.40 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Julius Thomas scored 33.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–1	0.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–0	0.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	1–0	0.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–0	0.364	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Fischer	1–0	0.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–0	0.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	0–1	0.818	-3.5	-0.318	0 / 1
Kev	0–1	0.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	0–1	0.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–1	0.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2014 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Krajcik lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1