2014 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2014

j-mart

90.17

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam

163.41

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.60 points left. Optimal 91.77 vs. actual 90.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	34.80	Andrew Luck	34.80
WR	Steve Smith	0.70	Steve Smith	0.70
WR	Marques Colston	9.10	Marques Colston	9.10
WR	Pierre Garcon	2.40	Pierre Garcon	2.40
RB	Shane Vereen	3.70	Shane Vereen	3.70
RB	Eddie Lacy	12.50	Eddie Lacy	12.50
TE	Owen Daniels	4.00	Owen Daniels	4.00
W/R/T	Branden Oliver	0.70	Vernon Davis	2.30
K	Randy Bullock	9.00	Randy Bullock	9.00
DEF	Texans	13.27	Texans	13.27

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 34.80 points (38.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.00 points left. Optimal 169.41 vs. actual 163.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	23.60	Matthew Stafford	23.60
WR	Jordy Nelson	12.30	Brandon LaFell	18.30
WR	Randall Cobb	12.80	Randall Cobb	12.80
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	13.86	Odell Beckham Jr.	13.86
RB	Jamaal Charles	13.90	C.J. Anderson	27.50
RB	C.J. Anderson	27.50	Jamaal Charles	13.90
TE	Martellus Bennett	16.90	Martellus Bennett	16.90
W/R/T	Joique Bell	23.70	Joique Bell	23.70
K	Justin Tucker	13.00	Justin Tucker	13.00
DEF	Ravens	5.85	Ravens	5.85

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Anderson, 27.50 points (16.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2014

Fischer

142.75

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Kev

93.25

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.58 points left. Optimal 181.33 vs. actual 142.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	3.86	Russell Wilson	16.94
WR	Antonio Brown	28.00	Antonio Brown	28.00
WR	Alshon Jeffery	23.60	Alshon Jeffery	23.60
WR	Mike Evans	6.90	Julian Edelman	8.30
RB	LeSean McCoy	21.90	Ryan Mathews	11.10
RB	Ryan Mathews	11.10	LeSean McCoy	21.90
TE	Greg Olsen	8.40	Coby Fleener	28.70
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	8.30	Steven Jackson	12.10
K	Dan Carpenter	15.00	Dan Carpenter	15.00
DEF	Colts	15.69	Colts	15.69

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 28.00 points (19.6% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.44 points left. Optimal 108.69 vs. actual 93.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	30.28	Drew Brees	30.28
WR	Kenny Britt	1.80	Rueben Randle	6.70
WR	Rueben Randle	6.70	Denard Robinson	6.90
WR	Denard Robinson	6.90	Malcom Floyd	10.00
RB	Matt Asiata	7.70	Matt Asiata	7.70
RB	Andre Ellington	1.20	Carlos Hyde	8.44
TE	Larry Donnell	6.00	Larry Donnell	6.00
W/R/T	Jeremy Hill	7.20	Jeremy Hill	7.20
K	Adam Vinatieri	7.00	Adam Vinatieri	7.00
DEF	Bills	18.47	Bills	18.47

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 30.28 points (32.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2014

Josh

91.94

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

112.88

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.90 points left. Optimal 96.84 vs. actual 91.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	29.22	Philip Rivers	29.22
WR	Roddy White	0.00	Emmanuel Sanders	10.30
WR	Josh Gordon	11.00	Josh Gordon	11.00
WR	Sammy Watkins	2.60	Dwayne Bowe	2.80
RB	Chris Ivory	6.20	Chris Ivory	6.20
RB	DeMarco Murray	20.30	DeMarco Murray	20.30
TE	Jimmy Graham	0.00	Jimmy Graham	0.00
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	10.30	Andre Williams	4.70
K	Chandler Catanzaro	5.00	Chandler Catanzaro	5.00
DEF	Cardinals	7.32	Cardinals	7.32

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 29.22 points (31.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Julio Jones scored 31.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.20 points left. Optimal 122.08 vs. actual 112.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	2.54	Andy Dalton	11.74
WR	Mike Wallace	9.90	Dez Bryant	9.30
WR	Dez Bryant	9.30	Julio Jones	31.90
WR	Julio Jones	31.90	Mike Wallace	9.90
RB	Frank Gore	4.10	Alfred Morris	9.80
RB	Alfred Morris	9.80	Frank Gore	4.10
TE	Andrew Quarless	2.70	Andrew Quarless	2.70
W/R/T	Rashad Jennings	22.90	Rashad Jennings	22.90
K	Stephen Hauschka	13.00	Stephen Hauschka	13.00
DEF	49ers	6.74	49ers	6.74

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 31.90 points (28.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2014

Demich

145.35

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Joe Shore

150.74

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.70 points left. Optimal 172.05 vs. actual 145.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	12.56	Peyton Manning	12.56
WR	Golden Tate	12.90	Golden Tate	12.90
WR	A.J. Green	13.70	A.J. Green	13.70
WR	Jarvis Landry	11.60	Jarvis Landry	11.60
RB	Mark Ingram II	15.10	Mark Ingram II	15.10
RB	Tre Mason	37.90	Tre Mason	37.90
TE	Jason Witten	1.30	Mychal Rivera	3.60
W/R/T	Charles Johnson	5.10	Donte Moncrief	29.50
K	Dan Bailey	3.00	Dan Bailey	3.00
DEF	Rams	32.19	Rams	32.19

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tre Mason, 37.90 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Rodgers scored 26.92; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.30 points left. Optimal 152.04 vs. actual 150.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	26.92	Aaron Rodgers	26.92
WR	Vincent Jackson	3.40	T.Y. Hilton	14.70
WR	Jeremy Maclin	16.80	Kenny Stills	26.70
WR	T.Y. Hilton	14.70	Jeremy Maclin	16.80
RB	Matt Forte	8.80	Matt Forte	8.80
RB	Justin Forsett	15.30	Justin Forsett	15.30
TE	Antonio Gates	11.80	Antonio Gates	11.80
W/R/T	Kenny Stills	26.70	Pierre Thomas	4.70
K	Cody Parkey	12.00	Cody Parkey	12.00
DEF	Eagles	14.32	Eagles	14.32

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 26.92 points (17.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2014

Horgan

125.23

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Martin

139.62

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.80 points left. Optimal 157.03 vs. actual 125.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	22.84	Matt Ryan	22.84
WR	Reggie Wayne	5.10	Demaryius Thomas	15.30
WR	Andre Johnson	12.80	Kendall Wright	24.70
WR	Demaryius Thomas	15.30	Andre Johnson	12.80
RB	Marshawn Lynch	13.60	Dan Herron	14.60
RB	Isaiah Crowell	4.90	Marshawn Lynch	13.60
TE	Rob Gronkowski	13.30	Rob Gronkowski	13.30
W/R/T	Dan Herron	14.60	Davante Adams	17.10
K	Mason Crosby	13.00	Mason Crosby	13.00
DEF	Lions	9.79	Lions	9.79

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 22.84 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DeAndre Hopkins scored 42.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.35 points left. Optimal 159.97 vs. actual 139.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	17.70	Tom Brady	17.70
WR	DeSean Jackson	16.90	Kelvin Benjamin	8.10
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	8.10	Jordan Matthews	13.10
WR	Jordan Matthews	13.10	DeSean Jackson	16.90
RB	Jonathan Stewart	12.00	Juwan Thompson	3.90
RB	Juwan Thompson	3.90	Jonathan Stewart	12.00
TE	Travis Kelce	5.10	Jordan Reed	18.80
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	42.30	DeAndre Hopkins	42.30
K	Shaun Suisham	12.00	Shaun Suisham	12.00
DEF	Dolphins	8.52	Broncos	15.17

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 42.30 points (30.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2014

Miller

178.32

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

71.33

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.70 points left. Optimal 188.02 vs. actual 178.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	28.20	Ben Roethlisberger	28.20
WR	Calvin Johnson	34.10	Keenan Allen	31.60
WR	Percy Harvin	3.80	Calvin Johnson	34.10
WR	Martavis Bryant	2.80	Percy Harvin	3.80
RB	Fred Jackson	11.20	Le'Veon Bell	37.40
RB	Le'Veon Bell	37.40	Fred Jackson	11.20
TE	Kyle Rudolph	7.70	Kyle Rudolph	7.70
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	31.60	Chris Johnson	12.50
K	Phil Dawson	4.00	Phil Dawson	4.00
DEF	Seahawks	17.52	Seahawks	17.52

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 37.40 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.10 points left. Optimal 79.43 vs. actual 71.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	8.70	Ryan Tannehill	8.70
WR	Anquan Boldin	3.30	Torrey Smith	21.50
WR	Brandon Marshall	7.20	Allen Hurns	6.20
WR	Torrey Smith	21.50	Brandon Marshall	7.20
RB	Darren Sproles	5.34	Darren Sproles	5.34
RB	Arian Foster	19.00	Arian Foster	19.00
TE	Jared Cook	0.00	Jared Cook	0.00
W/R/T	Benny Cunningham Jr.	0.30	Darren McFadden	5.50
K	Stephen Gostkowski	3.00	Stephen Gostkowski	3.00
DEF	Chiefs	2.99	Chiefs	2.99

Carried by One Guy: Torrey Smith, 21.50 points (30.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–8	5.091	+1.0	+0.091	3 / 1
Miller	5–8	4.909	+3.5	+0.318	3 / 0
Adam	11–2	8.636	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	9–4	8.091	0.0	0.000	2 / 2
Demich	4–9	7.091	-9.0	-0.818	1 / 5
Fischer	11–2	8.727	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Josh	7–6	7.364	-4.0	-0.364	0 / 2
Big Hut	6–7	6.364	-1.0	-0.091	3 / 3
Kev	4–9	4.818	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Joe Shore	8–5	8.273	-1.0	-0.091	0 / 2
Martin	6–7	4.909	-0.5	-0.045	2 / 1
Krajcik	2–11	3.727	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1

2014 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13