2014 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 11 – 17, 2014

j-mart

107.27

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Krajcik

84.44

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.10 points left. Optimal 107.37 vs. actual 107.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	21.62	Andrew Luck	21.62
WR	Marques Colston	7.60	Taylor Gabriel	12.12
WR	Pierre Garcon	1.10	Marques Colston	7.60
WR	Taylor Gabriel	12.12	Pierre Garcon	1.10
RB	Shane Vereen	9.70	Shane Vereen	9.70
RB	Eddie Lacy	24.90	Eddie Lacy	24.90
TE	Vernon Davis	1.60	Vernon Davis	1.60
W/R/T	DeAngelo Williams	4.30	Branden Oliver	4.40
K	Randy Bullock	14.00	Randy Bullock	14.00
DEF	Texans	10.33	Texans	10.33

Carried by One Guy: Eddie Lacy, 24.90 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.90 points left. Optimal 100.34 vs. actual 84.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	17.30	Ryan Tannehill	17.30
WR	Anquan Boldin	7.80	John Brown	9.40
WR	Brandon Marshall	24.50	Anquan Boldin	7.80
WR	John Brown	9.40	Brandon Marshall	24.50
RB	Darren Sproles	5.52	Benny Cunningham Jr.	6.78
RB	Darren McFadden	2.10	Darren Sproles	5.52
TE	Dwayne Allen	0.00	Jared Cook	3.40
W/R/T	Benny Cunningham Jr.	6.78	Doug Baldwin	14.60
K	Stephen Gostkowski	6.00	Stephen Gostkowski	6.00
DEF	Chiefs	5.04	Chiefs	5.04

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Marshall, 24.50 points (29.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Eddie Lacy scored 24.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 11 – 17, 2014

Horgan

116.30

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Kev

117.88

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.64 points left. Optimal 124.94 vs. actual 116.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	12.38	Matt Ryan	15.12
WR	Reggie Wayne	11.60	Demaryius Thomas	15.80
WR	Andre Johnson	10.30	Reggie Wayne	11.60
WR	Demaryius Thomas	15.80	Andre Johnson	10.30
RB	Marshawn Lynch	15.00	Alfred Blue	17.60
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	3.10	Marshawn Lynch	15.00
TE	Rob Gronkowski	15.10	Rob Gronkowski	15.10
W/R/T	Alfred Blue	17.60	Kendall Wright	9.00
K	Mason Crosby	9.00	Mason Crosby	9.00
DEF	Lions	6.42	Lions	6.42

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Alfred Blue, 17.60 points (15.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jeremy Hill scored 19.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.68 points left. Optimal 136.56 vs. actual 117.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	14.50	Drew Brees	14.50
WR	Malcom Floyd	12.40	Rueben Randle	16.70
WR	Rueben Randle	16.70	Malcom Floyd	12.40
WR	Cordarrelle Patterson	4.12	Kenny Britt	22.80
RB	Andre Ellington	8.60	Andre Ellington	8.60
RB	Jerick McKinnon	7.80	Jerick McKinnon	7.80
TE	Larry Donnell	12.90	Larry Donnell	12.90
W/R/T	Jeremy Hill	19.00	Jeremy Hill	19.00
K	Adam Vinatieri	10.00	Adam Vinatieri	10.00
DEF	Bills	11.86	Bills	11.86

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Hill, 19.00 points (16.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 11 – 17, 2014

Demich

117.29

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

102.14

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 117.29 vs. actual 117.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	17.46	Peyton Manning	17.46
WR	Golden Tate	5.90	Golden Tate	5.90
WR	A.J. Green	23.70	A.J. Green	23.70
WR	Jarvis Landry	12.04	Jarvis Landry	12.04
RB	Mark Ingram II	13.20	Mark Ingram II	13.20
RB	Tre Mason	13.90	Tre Mason	13.90
TE	Mychal Rivera	5.50	Mychal Rivera	5.50
W/R/T	Charles Sims	5.90	Charles Sims	5.90
K	Nick Novak	8.00	Nick Novak	8.00
DEF	Chargers	11.69	Chargers	11.69

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 23.70 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.58 points left. Optimal 112.72 vs. actual 102.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	14.12	Andy Dalton	22.00
WR	Mike Wallace	5.80	Julio Jones	8.90
WR	Julio Jones	8.90	Brandin Cooks	8.08
WR	Brandin Cooks	8.08	Hakeem Nicks	8.50
RB	Frank Gore	10.40	Alfred Morris	14.20
RB	Alfred Morris	14.20	Frank Gore	10.40
TE	Heath Miller	9.60	Heath Miller	9.60
W/R/T	Rashad Jennings	8.70	Rashad Jennings	8.70
K	Stephen Hauschka	6.00	Stephen Hauschka	6.00
DEF	49ers	16.34	49ers	16.34

Carried by One Guy: 49ers, 16.34 points (16.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: A.J. Green scored 23.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 11 – 17, 2014

Fischer

163.27

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh

79.85

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 51.44 points left. Optimal 214.71 vs. actual 163.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	22.22	Russell Wilson	22.22
WR	Antonio Brown	19.88	Antonio Brown	19.88
WR	Alshon Jeffery	27.00	Alshon Jeffery	27.00
WR	Mike Evans	38.40	Mike Evans	38.40
RB	LeSean McCoy	11.10	Jonas Gray	46.10
RB	Ryan Mathews	8.00	LeSean McCoy	11.10
TE	Greg Olsen	8.60	Coby Fleener	19.90
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	10.60	Bishop Sankey	12.64
K	Dan Carpenter	9.00	Dan Carpenter	9.00
DEF	Dolphins	8.47	Dolphins	8.47

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 38.40 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.72 points left. Optimal 85.57 vs. actual 79.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	11.62	Mark Sanchez	15.84
WR	Roddy White	17.50	Emmanuel Sanders	20.70
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	20.70	Sammy Watkins	5.00
WR	Sammy Watkins	5.00	Roddy White	17.50
RB	Matt Asiata	2.98	Matt Asiata	2.98
RB	Andre Williams	1.10	Andre Williams	1.10
TE	Julius Thomas	1.30	Jimmy Graham	4.40
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	4.40	Dwayne Bowe	2.80
K	Chandler Catanzaro	2.00	Chandler Catanzaro	2.00
DEF	Cardinals	13.25	Cardinals	13.25

Carried by One Guy: Emmanuel Sanders, 20.70 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 11 – 17, 2014

Adam

134.57

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

107.33

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.40 points left. Optimal 139.97 vs. actual 134.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	5.32	Matthew Stafford	5.32
WR	Jordy Nelson	20.90	Randall Cobb	19.90
WR	Randall Cobb	19.90	Odell Beckham Jr.	13.08
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	13.08	Jordy Nelson	20.90
RB	Jamaal Charles	30.80	C.J. Anderson	15.50
RB	Joique Bell	13.00	Jamaal Charles	30.80
TE	Martellus Bennett	4.90	Martellus Bennett	4.90
W/R/T	C.J. Anderson	15.50	Michael Floyd	18.40
K	Caleb Sturgis	8.00	Caleb Sturgis	8.00
DEF	Browns	3.17	Browns	3.17

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Charles, 30.80 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.50 points left. Optimal 107.83 vs. actual 107.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	30.84	Aaron Rodgers	30.84
WR	Vincent Jackson	5.80	T.Y. Hilton	3.90
WR	Jeremy Maclin	19.80	Vincent Jackson	5.80
WR	T.Y. Hilton	3.90	Jeremy Maclin	19.80
RB	Matt Forte	22.50	Travaris Cadet	3.10
RB	Travaris Cadet	3.10	Matt Forte	22.50
TE	Antonio Gates	4.70	Antonio Gates	4.70
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	3.80	Larry Fitzgerald	4.30
K	Cody Parkey	8.00	Cody Parkey	8.00
DEF	Seahawks	4.89	Seahawks	4.89

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 30.84 points (28.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jamaal Charles scored 30.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 11 – 17, 2014

Miller

101.50

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Martin

90.22

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.20 points left. Optimal 109.70 vs. actual 101.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	10.48	Cam Newton	18.68
WR	Calvin Johnson	8.40	Keenan Allen	11.18
WR	Keenan Allen	11.18	Martavis Bryant	2.10
WR	Martavis Bryant	2.10	Calvin Johnson	8.40
RB	Le'Veon Bell	31.20	Le'Veon Bell	31.20
RB	Theo Riddick	4.10	Theo Riddick	4.10
TE	Kyle Rudolph	0.00	Kyle Rudolph	0.00
W/R/T	Andrew Hawkins	18.70	Andrew Hawkins	18.70
K	Phil Dawson	11.00	Phil Dawson	11.00
DEF	Vikings	4.34	Vikings	4.34

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 31.20 points (30.7% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.92 points left. Optimal 114.14 vs. actual 90.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	14.08	Jay Cutler	25.30
WR	DeSean Jackson	5.70	Kelvin Benjamin	23.40
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	23.40	Jordan Matthews	21.20
WR	Jordan Matthews	21.20	Michael Crabtree	16.00
RB	Jonathan Stewart	5.40	Montee Ball	0.00
RB	Montee Ball	0.00	Jonathan Stewart	5.40
TE	Travis Kelce	3.20	Charles Clay	5.60
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	10.00	DeAndre Hopkins	10.00
K	Graham Gano	4.00	Graham Gano	4.00
DEF	Broncos	3.24	Broncos	3.24

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Kelvin Benjamin, 23.40 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Le'Veon Bell scored 31.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–7	4.636	-0.5	-0.045	2 / 1
Miller	4–7	3.818	+3.5	+0.318	3 / 0
Adam	9–2	6.818	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	9–2	7.364	0.0	0.000	2 / 2
Demich	3–8	5.636	-6.5	-0.591	1 / 4
Fischer	9–2	7.273	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Josh	6–5	6.636	-4.0	-0.364	0 / 2
Big Hut	5–6	5.364	-1.0	-0.091	2 / 2
Kev	4–7	4.091	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Joe Shore	6–5	6.455	-1.0	-0.091	0 / 2
Martin	5–6	4.364	-0.5	-0.045	2 / 1
Krajcik	2–9	3.545	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1

2014 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Martin lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11