2014 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 18 – 24, 2014

j-mart

115.82

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Miller

81.50

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.58 points left. Optimal 137.40 vs. actual 115.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	15.02	Andrew Luck	15.02
WR	Steve Smith	16.90	Steve Smith	16.90
WR	Marques Colston	16.20	Marques Colston	16.20
WR	Pierre Garcon	4.90	Pierre Garcon	4.90
RB	Shane Vereen	10.00	Shane Vereen	10.00
RB	Eddie Lacy	28.80	Eddie Lacy	28.80
TE	Owen Daniels	1.70	Vernon Davis	3.60
W/R/T	Branden Oliver	6.00	Latavius Murray	25.68
K	Randy Bullock	6.00	Randy Bullock	6.00
DEF	Texans	10.30	Texans	10.30

Carried by One Guy: Eddie Lacy, 28.80 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.84 points left. Optimal 95.34 vs. actual 81.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh McCown	14.84	Josh McCown	14.84
WR	Calvin Johnson	7.80	Andrew Hawkins	11.80
WR	Percy Harvin	2.36	Keenan Allen	17.40
WR	Keenan Allen	17.40	Calvin Johnson	7.80
RB	Chris Johnson	7.70	Giovani Bernard	7.70
RB	Giovani Bernard	7.70	Fred Jackson	12.10
TE	Kyle Rudolph	6.50	Kyle Rudolph	6.50
W/R/T	Eric Decker	8.30	Eric Decker	8.30
K	Phil Dawson	6.00	Phil Dawson	6.00
DEF	Cowboys	2.90	Cowboys	2.90

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 17.40 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 18 – 24, 2014

Demich

136.08

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev

119.58

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.27 points left. Optimal 141.35 vs. actual 136.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	28.08	Peyton Manning	28.08
WR	Golden Tate	13.00	Golden Tate	13.00
WR	A.J. Green	20.10	A.J. Green	20.10
WR	Jarvis Landry	21.24	Jarvis Landry	21.24
RB	Mark Ingram II	5.20	Mark Ingram II	5.20
RB	Tre Mason	9.30	Tre Mason	9.30
TE	Jason Witten	11.00	Jason Witten	11.00
W/R/T	Charles Sims	4.30	Andre Holmes	8.00
K	Dan Bailey	7.00	Dan Bailey	7.00
DEF	Rams	16.86	Chargers	18.43

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 28.08 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.80 points left. Optimal 137.38 vs. actual 119.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	30.30	Drew Brees	30.30
WR	Kenny Britt	4.70	Justin Hunter	14.40
WR	Rueben Randle	5.10	Denard Robinson	7.20
WR	Denard Robinson	7.20	James Jones	13.20
RB	Andre Ellington	8.80	Andre Ellington	8.80
RB	Jerick McKinnon	7.80	Jerick McKinnon	7.80
TE	Larry Donnell	3.40	Larry Donnell	3.40
W/R/T	Jeremy Hill	16.10	Jeremy Hill	16.10
K	Adam Vinatieri	11.00	Adam Vinatieri	11.00
DEF	Bills	25.18	Bills	25.18

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 30.30 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Peyton Manning scored 28.08; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 18 – 24, 2014

Fischer

145.14

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

130.70

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 145.14 vs. actual 145.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	24.80	Tony Romo	24.80
WR	Julian Edelman	14.52	Alshon Jeffery	9.70
WR	Alshon Jeffery	9.70	Mike Evans	12.20
WR	Mike Evans	12.20	Julian Edelman	14.52
RB	LeSean McCoy	21.60	Ryan Mathews	20.30
RB	Ryan Mathews	20.30	LeSean McCoy	21.60
TE	Coby Fleener	3.80	Coby Fleener	3.80
W/R/T	Steven Jackson	12.10	Steven Jackson	12.10
K	Dan Carpenter	10.00	Dan Carpenter	10.00
DEF	Colts	16.12	Colts	16.12

Carried by One Guy: Tony Romo, 24.80 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.50 points left. Optimal 131.20 vs. actual 130.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	13.64	Colin Kaepernick	13.64
WR	Mike Wallace	11.50	Dez Bryant	24.10
WR	Dez Bryant	24.10	Julio Jones	15.30
WR	Julio Jones	15.30	Mike Wallace	11.50
RB	Frank Gore	1.60	Alfred Morris	21.50
RB	Alfred Morris	21.50	Rashad Jennings	16.00
TE	Jace Amaro	0.00	Jace Amaro	0.00
W/R/T	Rashad Jennings	16.00	Hakeem Nicks	2.10
K	Stephen Hauschka	15.00	Stephen Hauschka	15.00
DEF	49ers	12.06	49ers	12.06

Carried by One Guy: Dez Bryant, 24.10 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tony Romo scored 24.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 18 – 24, 2014

Horgan

114.95

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

177.92

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.80 points left. Optimal 117.75 vs. actual 114.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	15.52	Matt Ryan	15.52
WR	Reggie Wayne	2.50	Demaryius Thomas	31.70
WR	Andre Johnson	5.10	Kendall Wright	3.30
WR	Demaryius Thomas	31.70	Andre Johnson	5.10
RB	Marshawn Lynch	9.70	Isaiah Crowell	20.80
RB	Isaiah Crowell	20.80	Marshawn Lynch	9.70
TE	Rob Gronkowski	10.30	Rob Gronkowski	10.30
W/R/T	Alfred Blue	8.10	Dan Herron	10.10
K	Mason Crosby	7.00	Mason Crosby	7.00
DEF	Packers	4.23	Packers	4.23

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 31.70 points (27.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.50 points left. Optimal 203.42 vs. actual 177.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	19.76	Aaron Rodgers	19.76
WR	Vincent Jackson	14.20	Mohamed Sanu	13.40
WR	Jeremy Maclin	8.90	T.Y. Hilton	23.70
WR	T.Y. Hilton	23.70	Vincent Jackson	14.20
RB	Matt Forte	25.70	Matt Forte	25.70
RB	Justin Forsett	34.00	Justin Forsett	34.00
TE	Antonio Gates	2.40	Delanie Walker	20.00
W/R/T	Trent Richardson	10.20	Kenny Stills	13.60
K	Cody Parkey	20.00	Cody Parkey	20.00
DEF	Eagles	19.06	Eagles	19.06

Carried by One Guy: Justin Forsett, 34.00 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 18 – 24, 2014

Adam

147.42

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Martin

56.52

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.36 points left. Optimal 171.78 vs. actual 147.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	10.36	Eli Manning	25.52
WR	Jordy Nelson	10.80	Randall Cobb	7.86
WR	Randall Cobb	7.86	Odell Beckham Jr.	33.38
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	33.38	Jordy Nelson	10.80
RB	Jamaal Charles	20.20	C.J. Anderson	29.50
RB	Joique Bell	5.10	Jamaal Charles	20.20
TE	Martellus Bennett	5.70	Martellus Bennett	5.70
W/R/T	C.J. Anderson	29.50	Brandon LaFell	14.30
K	Justin Tucker	12.00	Justin Tucker	12.00
DEF	Ravens	12.52	Ravens	12.52

Carried by One Guy: Odell Beckham Jr., 33.38 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.76 points left. Optimal 71.28 vs. actual 56.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	7.20	Tom Brady	21.96
WR	DeSean Jackson	4.90	Jordan Matthews	10.70
WR	Michael Crabtree	8.30	DeSean Jackson	4.90
WR	Jordan Matthews	10.70	Michael Crabtree	8.30
RB	Roy Helu	1.90	Roy Helu	1.90
RB	Juwan Thompson	3.30	Juwan Thompson	3.30
TE	Travis Kelce	8.70	Travis Kelce	8.70
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	6.40	DeAndre Hopkins	6.40
K	Cairo Santos	6.00	Cairo Santos	6.00
DEF	Broncos	-0.88	Broncos	-0.88

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Matthews, 10.70 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 18 – 24, 2014

Josh

129.83

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

109.62

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.60 points left. Optimal 136.43 vs. actual 129.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mark Sanchez	14.68	Mark Sanchez	14.68
WR	Roddy White	14.10	Josh Gordon	18.00
WR	Josh Gordon	18.00	Roddy White	14.10
WR	Sammy Watkins	5.00	Dwayne Bowe	5.70
RB	Chris Ivory	5.30	DeMarco Murray	17.30
RB	DeMarco Murray	17.30	Andre Williams	11.20
TE	Jimmy Graham	19.70	Jimmy Graham	19.70
W/R/T	Emmanuel Sanders	21.30	Emmanuel Sanders	21.30
K	Chandler Catanzaro	2.00	Chandler Catanzaro	2.00
DEF	Cardinals	12.45	Cardinals	12.45

Carried by One Guy: Emmanuel Sanders, 21.30 points (16.4% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.70 points left. Optimal 122.32 vs. actual 109.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	26.62	Ryan Tannehill	26.62
WR	Anquan Boldin	26.20	Torrey Smith	12.30
WR	Brandon Marshall	4.70	John Brown	7.60
WR	Torrey Smith	12.30	Anquan Boldin	26.20
RB	Darren Sproles	12.40	Benny Cunningham Jr.	7.56
RB	Arian Foster	0.00	Darren Sproles	12.40
TE	Jared Cook	4.20	Jared Cook	4.20
W/R/T	Benny Cunningham Jr.	7.56	Wes Welker	9.80
K	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00
DEF	Chiefs	4.64	Chiefs	4.64

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Tannehill, 26.62 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Emmanuel Sanders scored 21.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–7	5.000	+1.0	+0.091	3 / 1
Miller	4–8	3.909	+3.5	+0.318	3 / 0
Adam	10–2	7.727	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	9–3	7.636	0.0	0.000	2 / 2
Demich	4–8	6.364	-6.5	-0.591	1 / 4
Fischer	10–2	8.091	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Josh	7–5	7.182	-4.0	-0.364	0 / 2
Big Hut	5–7	6.000	-2.5	-0.227	2 / 3
Kev	4–8	4.545	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Joe Shore	7–5	7.455	-1.0	-0.091	0 / 2
Martin	5–7	4.364	-0.5	-0.045	2 / 1
Krajcik	2–10	3.727	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1

2014 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Krajcik lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12