2014 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 23 – 29, 2014

j-mart

171.33

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Demich

134.28

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.38 points left. Optimal 179.71 vs. actual 171.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	31.62	Andrew Luck	31.62
WR	Steve Smith	31.40	Victor Cruz	15.80
WR	Brandon Marshall	8.90	Steve Smith	31.40
WR	Victor Cruz	15.80	Brandon Marshall	8.90
RB	Darren Sproles	9.32	Eddie Lacy	12.40
RB	Eddie Lacy	12.40	Jerick McKinnon	17.70
TE	Larry Donnell	26.90	Larry Donnell	26.90
W/R/T	Doug Martin	12.60	Doug Martin	12.60
K	Shayne Graham	5.00	Shayne Graham	5.00
DEF	Chiefs	17.39	Chiefs	17.39

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 31.62 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.42 points left. Optimal 152.70 vs. actual 134.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Teddy Bridgewater	25.38	Teddy Bridgewater	25.38
WR	Greg Jennings	8.70	Golden Tate	17.60
WR	Golden Tate	17.60	Greg Jennings	8.70
WR	Allen Robinson	6.30	Dwayne Bowe	10.60
RB	Reggie Bush	8.50	Matt Asiata	29.50
RB	Matt Asiata	29.50	Reggie Bush	8.50
TE	Jason Witten	8.60	Jason Witten	8.60
W/R/T	Shonn Greene	1.00	Knile Davis	15.12
K	Dan Bailey	10.00	Dan Bailey	10.00
DEF	Dolphins	18.70	Dolphins	18.70

Carried by One Guy: Matt Asiata, 29.50 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 23 – 29, 2014

Miller

116.22

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

122.31

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.38 points left. Optimal 138.60 vs. actual 116.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	12.58	Ben Roethlisberger	24.36
WR	Calvin Johnson	2.20	Eric Decker	12.80
WR	Stevie Johnson	7.70	Keenan Allen	20.50
WR	Keenan Allen	20.50	Stevie Johnson	7.70
RB	Fred Jackson	11.50	Le'Veon Bell	13.90
RB	Le'Veon Bell	13.90	Fred Jackson	11.50
TE	Niles Paul	7.50	Niles Paul	7.50
W/R/T	Chris Johnson	13.10	Chris Johnson	13.10
K	Phil Dawson	16.00	Phil Dawson	16.00
DEF	Chargers	11.24	Chargers	11.24

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 20.50 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Reggie Wayne scored 23.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.80 points left. Optimal 128.11 vs. actual 122.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	20.12	Matt Ryan	20.12
WR	Reggie Wayne	23.40	Terrance Williams	22.70
WR	Andre Johnson	8.10	Reggie Wayne	23.40
WR	Terrance Williams	22.70	Andre Johnson	8.10
RB	Steven Jackson	7.20	Steven Jackson	7.20
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	12.20	Ahmad Bradshaw	12.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	10.10	Rob Gronkowski	10.10
W/R/T	Kendall Wright	6.00	Lorenzo Taliaferro	11.80
K	Matt Bryant	4.00	Matt Bryant	4.00
DEF	Lions	8.49	Lions	8.49

Carried by One Guy: Reggie Wayne, 23.40 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 23 – 29, 2014

Big Hut

118.94

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Kev

104.35

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.84 points left. Optimal 144.78 vs. actual 118.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	20.52	Colin Kaepernick	20.52
WR	Dez Bryant	11.90	Dez Bryant	11.90
WR	Julio Jones	11.20	Julio Jones	11.20
WR	Brandin Cooks	5.90	Mike Wallace	11.00
RB	Rashad Jennings	5.70	C.J. Spiller	11.54
RB	Alfred Morris	16.50	Alfred Morris	16.50
TE	Heath Miller	19.50	Heath Miller	19.50
W/R/T	Mike Wallace	11.00	Frank Gore	25.90
K	Shaun Suisham	5.00	Shaun Suisham	5.00
DEF	49ers	11.72	49ers	11.72

Carried by One Guy: Colin Kaepernick, 20.52 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.98 points left. Optimal 109.33 vs. actual 104.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	22.20	Drew Brees	22.20
WR	Marques Colston	7.50	Rueben Randle	12.90
WR	Rueben Randle	12.90	Marques Colston	7.50
WR	Cordarrelle Patterson	6.52	Brian Hartline	10.40
RB	Donald Brown	7.40	Toby Gerhart	8.50
RB	Shane Vereen	9.20	Shane Vereen	9.20
TE	Zach Ertz	4.30	Zach Ertz	4.30
W/R/T	Malcom Floyd	11.40	Malcom Floyd	11.40
K	Adam Vinatieri	11.00	Adam Vinatieri	11.00
DEF	Bills	11.93	Bills	11.93

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 22.20 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Colin Kaepernick scored 20.52; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 23 – 29, 2014

Josh

88.77

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

131.09

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 88.77 vs. actual 88.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	5.48	Kirk Cousins	5.48
WR	Pierre Garcon	3.80	Jeremy Kerley	0.80
WR	Jeremy Kerley	0.80	Sammy Watkins	11.00
WR	Sammy Watkins	11.00	Pierre Garcon	3.80
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	1.30	DeMarco Murray	30.00
RB	DeMarco Murray	30.00	Maurice Jones-Drew	1.30
TE	Dwayne Allen	11.30	Dwayne Allen	11.30
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	16.60	Jimmy Graham	16.60
K	Nick Folk	4.00	Nick Folk	4.00
DEF	Jets	4.49	Jets	4.49

Carried by One Guy: DeMarco Murray, 30.00 points (33.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.70 points left. Optimal 149.79 vs. actual 131.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	30.88	Aaron Rodgers	30.88
WR	Vincent Jackson	10.70	T.Y. Hilton	16.00
WR	Jeremy Maclin	7.70	Vincent Jackson	10.70
WR	T.Y. Hilton	16.00	Jeremy Maclin	7.70
RB	Matt Forte	21.60	Trent Richardson	17.90
RB	Stevan Ridley	2.80	Matt Forte	21.60
TE	Antonio Gates	4.50	Antonio Gates	4.50
W/R/T	DeAngelo Williams	3.40	Markus Wheaton	7.00
K	Dan Carpenter	5.00	Dan Carpenter	5.00
DEF	Eagles	28.51	Eagles	28.51

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 30.88 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 23 – 29, 2014

Fischer

116.61

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Martin

103.29

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.30 points left. Optimal 127.91 vs. actual 116.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	24.48	Tony Romo	24.48
WR	Julian Edelman	4.50	Antonio Brown	31.28
WR	Antonio Brown	31.28	Alshon Jeffery	13.10
WR	Alshon Jeffery	13.10	Jordan Matthews	4.80
RB	LeSean McCoy	1.70	Khiry Robinson	11.50
RB	Khiry Robinson	11.50	Bishop Sankey	12.70
TE	Greg Olsen	4.00	Greg Olsen	4.00
W/R/T	Mike Evans	14.50	Mike Evans	14.50
K	Nick Novak	14.00	Nick Novak	14.00
DEF	Patriots	-2.45	Patriots	-2.45

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 31.28 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.90 points left. Optimal 114.19 vs. actual 103.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	17.14	Jay Cutler	17.14
WR	DeSean Jackson	1.40	Torrey Smith	12.30
WR	Michael Crabtree	6.80	Kelvin Benjamin	16.10
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	16.10	Michael Crabtree	6.80
RB	Pierre Thomas	3.30	Carlos Hyde	2.60
RB	Carlos Hyde	2.60	Pierre Thomas	3.30
TE	Travis Kelce	19.30	Travis Kelce	19.30
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	14.90	DeAndre Hopkins	14.90
K	Mason Crosby	10.00	Mason Crosby	10.00
DEF	Colts	11.75	Colts	11.75

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 19.30 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Brown scored 31.28; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 23 – 29, 2014

Adam

165.20

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

58.03

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.22 points left. Optimal 181.42 vs. actual 165.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	26.52	Matthew Stafford	26.52
WR	Jordy Nelson	29.80	Randall Cobb	28.80
WR	Randall Cobb	28.80	Cecil Shorts	3.50
WR	Cecil Shorts	3.50	Jordy Nelson	29.80
RB	Jamaal Charles	30.30	Lamar Miller	17.70
RB	Lamar Miller	17.70	Jamaal Charles	30.30
TE	Martellus Bennett	19.90	Martellus Bennett	19.90
W/R/T	Joique Bell	4.90	Delanie Walker	16.90
K	Justin Tucker	8.00	Justin Tucker	8.00
DEF	Falcons	-4.22	Bengals	0.00

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Charles, 30.30 points (17.9% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.88 points left. Optimal 85.91 vs. actual 58.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	3.90	Philip Rivers	29.08
WR	Anquan Boldin	8.70	Allen Hurns	9.30
WR	Roddy White	15.30	Anquan Boldin	8.70
WR	Allen Hurns	9.30	Roddy White	15.30
RB	Darren McFadden	9.20	Darren McFadden	9.20
RB	Arian Foster	9.60	Arian Foster	9.60
TE	Vernon Davis	1.80	Vernon Davis	1.80
W/R/T	LeGarrette Blount	3.00	Jacquizz Rodgers	5.70
K	Stephen Gostkowski	2.00	Stephen Gostkowski	2.00
DEF	Panthers	-4.77	Panthers	-4.77

Carried by One Guy: Roddy White, 15.30 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–3	2.545	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Miller	2–2	1.909	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	4–0	2.909	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	4–0	2.091	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Demich	1–3	1.909	-3.5	-0.318	1 / 2
Fischer	4–0	3.091	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Josh	3–1	2.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	2–2	3.000	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Kev	0–4	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	2–2	1.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–3	1.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–4	0.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2014 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Krajcik lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4