2014 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 21 – 27, 2014

j-mart

107.57

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Kev

125.05

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.38 points left. Optimal 126.95 vs. actual 107.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	28.60	Andrew Luck	28.60
WR	Steve Smith	5.00	Steve Smith	5.00
WR	Brandon Marshall	5.00	Brandon Marshall	5.00
WR	Marques Colston	6.90	Marques Colston	6.90
RB	Shane Vereen	6.00	Chris Ivory	16.30
RB	Eddie Lacy	24.20	Eddie Lacy	24.20
TE	Jordan Cameron	5.50	Jordan Cameron	5.50
W/R/T	Branden Oliver	9.80	Knile Davis	18.88
K	Matt Bryant	3.00	Matt Bryant	3.00
DEF	Patriots	13.57	Patriots	13.57

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 28.60 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drew Brees scored 27.04; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.38 points left. Optimal 131.43 vs. actual 125.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	27.04	Drew Brees	27.04
WR	Malcom Floyd	7.80	Cordarrelle Patterson	14.18
WR	James Jones	9.20	Justin Hunter	11.10
WR	Justin Hunter	11.10	James Jones	9.20
RB	Andre Ellington	14.00	Andre Ellington	14.00
RB	Jerick McKinnon	8.70	Jerick McKinnon	8.70
TE	Zach Ertz	7.30	Zach Ertz	7.30
W/R/T	Denard Robinson	14.30	Denard Robinson	14.30
K	Adam Vinatieri	9.00	Adam Vinatieri	9.00
DEF	Bills	16.61	Bills	16.61

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 27.04 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 21 – 27, 2014

Miller

108.72

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

124.04

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 41.54 points left. Optimal 150.26 vs. actual 108.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	5.24	Ben Roethlisberger	46.78
WR	Percy Harvin	10.38	Eric Decker	7.50
WR	Eric Decker	7.50	Keenan Allen	17.92
WR	Keenan Allen	17.92	Percy Harvin	10.38
RB	Giovani Bernard	11.70	Giovani Bernard	11.70
RB	Le'Veon Bell	17.80	Le'Veon Bell	17.80
TE	Clay Harbor	3.70	Clay Harbor	3.70
W/R/T	Andrew Hawkins	18.30	Andrew Hawkins	18.30
K	Blair Walsh	8.00	Blair Walsh	8.00
DEF	Texans	8.18	Texans	8.18

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Hawkins, 18.30 points (16.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Brandin Cooks scored 24.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 124.04 vs. actual 124.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	20.04	Andy Dalton	20.04
WR	Mike Wallace	6.90	Dez Bryant	10.50
WR	Dez Bryant	10.50	Julio Jones	7.80
WR	Julio Jones	7.80	Mike Wallace	6.90
RB	Alfred Morris	15.00	Alfred Morris	15.00
RB	Zac Stacy	5.20	Zac Stacy	5.20
TE	Heath Miller	22.70	Heath Miller	22.70
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	24.80	Brandin Cooks	24.80
K	Stephen Hauschka	8.00	Stephen Hauschka	8.00
DEF	Rams	3.10	Rams	3.10

Carried by One Guy: Brandin Cooks, 24.80 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 21 – 27, 2014

Adam

131.49

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Josh

126.54

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.10 points left. Optimal 163.59 vs. actual 131.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	21.90	Matthew Stafford	21.90
WR	Jordy Nelson	4.00	Brandon LaFell	25.90
WR	Randall Cobb	23.10	Randall Cobb	23.10
WR	Michael Floyd	0.00	Cecil Shorts	5.60
RB	Jamaal Charles	23.10	Lamar Miller	11.40
RB	Joique Bell	7.10	Jamaal Charles	23.10
TE	Martellus Bennett	18.50	Martellus Bennett	18.50
W/R/T	Lamar Miller	11.40	Delanie Walker	11.70
K	Justin Tucker	15.00	Justin Tucker	15.00
DEF	Ravens	7.39	Ravens	7.39

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Charles, 23.10 points (17.6% of positive starter points); Randall Cobb, 23.10 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.20 points left. Optimal 143.74 vs. actual 126.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	19.78	Philip Rivers	19.78
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	37.10	Emmanuel Sanders	37.10
WR	Torrey Smith	0.00	Sammy Watkins	25.20
WR	Sammy Watkins	25.20	Roddy White	9.10
RB	LeGarrette Blount	2.50	DeMarco Murray	24.10
RB	DeMarco Murray	24.10	Roy Helu	5.30
TE	Julius Thomas	3.30	Julius Thomas	3.30
W/R/T	Roddy White	9.10	Jimmy Graham	14.40
K	Chandler Catanzaro	5.00	Chandler Catanzaro	5.00
DEF	Jets	0.46	Jets	0.46

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Emmanuel Sanders, 37.10 points (29.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jamaal Charles scored 23.10; zeroing that score creates a win; Randall Cobb scored 23.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 21 – 27, 2014

Horgan

138.86

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

100.20

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.20 points left. Optimal 143.06 vs. actual 138.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	23.16	Carson Palmer	23.16
WR	Andre Johnson	9.00	Demaryius Thomas	16.50
WR	Demaryius Thomas	16.50	Davante Adams	11.00
WR	Kendall Wright	6.80	Andre Johnson	9.00
RB	Marshawn Lynch	6.90	Marshawn Lynch	6.90
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	18.20	Ahmad Bradshaw	18.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	39.40	Rob Gronkowski	39.40
W/R/T	Terrance Williams	9.90	Terrance Williams	9.90
K	Brandon McManus	5.00	Brandon McManus	5.00
DEF	Lions	4.00	Lions	4.00

Carried by One Guy: Rob Gronkowski, 39.40 points (28.4% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.86 points left. Optimal 110.06 vs. actual 100.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	12.46	Tony Romo	12.46
WR	Julian Edelman	2.74	Antonio Brown	33.12
WR	Antonio Brown	33.12	Alshon Jeffery	14.40
WR	Alshon Jeffery	14.40	Mike Evans	9.80
RB	LeSean McCoy	11.20	Jonas Gray	8.60
RB	Bishop Sankey	8.00	LeSean McCoy	11.20
TE	Greg Olsen	2.10	Greg Olsen	2.10
W/R/T	Mike Evans	9.80	Steven Jackson	12.00
K	Nick Novak	3.00	Nick Novak	3.00
DEF	Colts	3.38	Colts	3.38

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 33.12 points (33.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Rob Gronkowski scored 39.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 21 – 27, 2014

Joe Shore

174.23

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Martin

160.78

Rank 2; -4.5 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 47.92 points left. Optimal 222.15 vs. actual 174.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	26.82	Aaron Rodgers	26.82
WR	Vincent Jackson	1.80	Mohamed Sanu	19.70
WR	Jeremy Maclin	39.20	T.Y. Hilton	26.50
WR	T.Y. Hilton	26.50	Jeremy Maclin	39.20
RB	Matt Forte	29.80	Matt Forte	29.80
RB	Justin Forsett	12.00	Justin Forsett	12.00
TE	Antonio Gates	19.90	Antonio Gates	19.90
W/R/T	Travaris Cadet	6.70	Larry Fitzgerald	27.50
K	Cody Parkey	9.00	Cody Parkey	9.00
DEF	Eagles	2.51	Seahawks	11.73

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Maclin, 39.20 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 160.78 vs. actual 160.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	36.16	Tom Brady	36.16
WR	DeSean Jackson	18.60	DeAndre Hopkins	12.00
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	12.00	Kelvin Benjamin	11.40
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	11.40	DeSean Jackson	18.60
RB	Jonathan Stewart	10.90	Ronnie Hillman	17.30
RB	Ronnie Hillman	17.30	Jonathan Stewart	10.90
TE	Travis Kelce	6.50	Travis Kelce	6.50
W/R/T	Jordan Reed	7.50	Jordan Reed	7.50
K	Mason Crosby	11.00	Mason Crosby	11.00
DEF	Dolphins	29.42	Dolphins	29.42

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 36.16 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jeremy Maclin scored 39.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 21 – 27, 2014

Demich

130.61

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Krajcik

135.94

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.40 points left. Optimal 145.01 vs. actual 130.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	23.44	Peyton Manning	23.44
WR	Golden Tate	26.60	Golden Tate	26.60
WR	Andre Holmes	15.40	Andre Holmes	15.40
WR	Jarvis Landry	5.04	Jarvis Landry	5.04
RB	Mark Ingram II	26.00	Mark Ingram II	26.00
RB	Matt Asiata	4.70	Matt Asiata	4.70
TE	Jason Witten	15.50	Jason Witten	15.50
W/R/T	Jarius Wright	2.30	Allen Robinson	16.70
K	Dan Bailey	4.00	Dan Bailey	4.00
DEF	Cowboys	7.63	Cowboys	7.63

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Golden Tate, 26.60 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Arian Foster scored 39.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.16 points left. Optimal 158.10 vs. actual 135.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	23.84	Nick Foles	23.84
WR	Wes Welker	1.50	Doug Baldwin	9.10
WR	Pierre Garcon	6.70	John Brown	22.40
WR	Doug Baldwin	9.10	Pierre Garcon	6.70
RB	Darren McFadden	8.50	Darren McFadden	8.50
RB	Arian Foster	39.30	Arian Foster	39.30
TE	Dwayne Allen	8.60	Dwayne Allen	8.60
W/R/T	Benny Cunningham Jr.	5.14	Allen Hurns	6.40
K	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00
DEF	Chiefs	20.26	Chiefs	20.26

Carried by One Guy: Arian Foster, 39.30 points (28.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–5	4.091	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Miller	2–6	2.818	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	7–1	5.182	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	8–0	5.273	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Demich	2–6	4.091	-6.5	-0.591	1 / 4
Fischer	6–2	4.545	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Josh	5–3	5.091	-3.5	-0.318	0 / 1
Big Hut	3–5	3.727	-2.5	-0.227	1 / 2
Kev	2–6	2.182	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Joe Shore	5–3	5.000	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Martin	3–5	3.273	-4.0	-0.364	1 / 1
Krajcik	2–6	2.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2014 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8