2014 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 14 – 20, 2014

j-mart

110.93

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Big Hut

74.69

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.70 points left. Optimal 124.63 vs. actual 110.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	22.26	Andrew Luck	22.26
WR	Steve Smith	8.20	Steve Smith	8.20
WR	Brandon Marshall	7.80	Brandon Marshall	7.80
WR	Marques Colston	16.10	Marques Colston	16.10
RB	Shane Vereen	25.90	Shane Vereen	25.90
RB	Eddie Lacy	14.80	Eddie Lacy	14.80
TE	Jordan Cameron	1.00	Jordan Cameron	1.00
W/R/T	Branden Oliver	8.80	Chris Ivory	22.50
K	Matt Bryant	1.00	Matt Bryant	1.00
DEF	Cardinals	5.07	Cardinals	5.07

Carried by One Guy: Shane Vereen, 25.90 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.68 points left. Optimal 101.37 vs. actual 74.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	14.32	Colin Kaepernick	14.32
WR	Mike Wallace	13.50	Dez Bryant	21.60
WR	Dez Bryant	21.60	Julio Jones	8.10
WR	Julio Jones	8.10	Mike Wallace	13.50
RB	Frank Gore	2.00	C.J. Spiller	6.16
RB	Alfred Morris	5.40	Alfred Morris	5.40
TE	Heath Miller	1.80	Heath Miller	1.80
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	3.60	Odell Beckham Jr.	19.12
K	Stephen Hauschka	7.00	Shaun Suisham	14.00
DEF	49ers	-2.63	49ers	-2.63

Carried by One Guy: Dez Bryant, 21.60 points (27.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 14 – 20, 2014

Miller

77.00

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Josh

118.07

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.00 points left. Optimal 113.00 vs. actual 77.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	14.30	Ben Roethlisberger	16.90
WR	Percy Harvin	0.00	Eric Decker	8.50
WR	Eric Decker	8.50	Andrew Hawkins	16.50
WR	Keenan Allen	8.80	Keenan Allen	8.80
RB	Giovani Bernard	2.60	Le'Veon Bell	24.50
RB	Le'Veon Bell	24.50	Chris Johnson	9.00
TE	Clay Harbor	6.40	Clay Harbor	6.40
W/R/T	Fred Jackson	4.30	Owen Daniels	14.80
K	Phil Dawson	4.00	Phil Dawson	4.00
DEF	Texans	3.60	Texans	3.60

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 24.50 points (31.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.50 points left. Optimal 140.57 vs. actual 118.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	14.20	Philip Rivers	14.20
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	11.60	Emmanuel Sanders	11.60
WR	Torrey Smith	15.60	Torrey Smith	15.60
WR	Sammy Watkins	30.70	Sammy Watkins	30.70
RB	DeMarco Murray	21.70	DeMarco Murray	21.70
RB	Andre Williams	5.10	Andre Williams	5.10
TE	Julius Thomas	4.70	Julius Thomas	4.70
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	0.00	Roddy White	22.50
K	Chandler Catanzaro	7.00	Chandler Catanzaro	7.00
DEF	Packers	7.47	Packers	7.47

Carried by One Guy: Sammy Watkins, 30.70 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 14 – 20, 2014

Adam

136.33

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

99.68

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.80 points left. Optimal 146.13 vs. actual 136.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	16.06	Matthew Stafford	16.06
WR	Jordy Nelson	16.00	Randall Cobb	24.06
WR	Randall Cobb	24.06	Michael Floyd	12.20
WR	Michael Floyd	12.20	Jordy Nelson	16.00
RB	Jamaal Charles	17.70	Joique Bell	13.70
RB	Ben Tate	3.90	Jamaal Charles	17.70
TE	Martellus Bennett	8.30	Martellus Bennett	8.30
W/R/T	Lamar Miller	15.30	Lamar Miller	15.30
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Ravens	13.81	Ravens	13.81

Carried by One Guy: Randall Cobb, 24.06 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 99.68 vs. actual 99.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	21.66	Tony Romo	21.66
WR	Julian Edelman	7.26	Antonio Brown	18.04
WR	Antonio Brown	18.04	Alshon Jeffery	1.90
WR	Alshon Jeffery	1.90	Julian Edelman	7.26
RB	Bernard Pierce	8.10	Bernard Pierce	8.10
RB	Bishop Sankey	5.60	Bishop Sankey	5.60
TE	Greg Olsen	16.50	Greg Olsen	16.50
W/R/T	Steven Jackson	3.00	Steven Jackson	3.00
K	Nick Novak	8.00	Nick Novak	8.00
DEF	Titans	9.62	Titans	9.62

Carried by One Guy: Tony Romo, 21.66 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 14 – 20, 2014

Horgan

125.30

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Demich

121.20

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.60 points left. Optimal 137.90 vs. actual 125.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	16.12	Carson Palmer	16.12
WR	Reggie Wayne	3.50	Demaryius Thomas	35.10
WR	Andre Johnson	10.20	Kendall Wright	15.80
WR	Demaryius Thomas	35.10	Andre Johnson	10.20
RB	Marshawn Lynch	8.10	Marshawn Lynch	8.10
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	20.30	Ahmad Bradshaw	20.30
TE	Rob Gronkowski	9.30	Rob Gronkowski	9.30
W/R/T	Terrance Williams	8.30	Davante Adams	8.60
K	Brandon McManus	6.00	Brandon McManus	6.00
DEF	Browns	8.38	Browns	8.38

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 35.10 points (28.0% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.04 points left. Optimal 133.24 vs. actual 121.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	30.62	Peyton Manning	30.62
WR	Golden Tate	28.40	Golden Tate	28.40
WR	Jarius Wright	8.00	Jarius Wright	8.00
WR	Allen Robinson	14.00	Allen Robinson	14.00
RB	Reggie Bush	5.70	James Starks	10.80
RB	James Starks	10.80	Tre Mason	14.50
TE	Jason Witten	3.70	Jason Witten	3.70
W/R/T	Andre Holmes	4.90	Jarvis Landry	8.14
K	Dan Bailey	8.00	Dan Bailey	8.00
DEF	Patriots	7.08	Patriots	7.08

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 30.62 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Demaryius Thomas scored 35.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 14 – 20, 2014

Joe Shore

117.92

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Krajcik

122.60

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.20 points left. Optimal 136.12 vs. actual 117.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	24.30	Russell Wilson	41.12
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	4.10	Mohamed Sanu	6.90
WR	Mohamed Sanu	6.90	T.Y. Hilton	16.20
WR	T.Y. Hilton	16.20	Larry Fitzgerald	4.10
RB	Matt Forte	25.90	Matt Forte	25.90
RB	Justin Forsett	9.50	Justin Forsett	9.50
TE	Antonio Gates	13.60	Antonio Gates	13.60
W/R/T	Trent Richardson	13.80	Trent Richardson	13.80
K	Graham Gano	5.00	Graham Gano	5.00
DEF	Seahawks	-1.38	Eagles	0.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Matt Forte, 25.90 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Eli Manning scored 23.02; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.70 points left. Optimal 143.30 vs. actual 122.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	23.02	Eli Manning	23.02
WR	Anquan Boldin	8.50	Anquan Boldin	8.50
WR	Wes Welker	12.50	Wes Welker	12.50
WR	Pierre Garcon	17.20	Pierre Garcon	17.20
RB	Darren McFadden	13.50	Darren McFadden	13.50
RB	Arian Foster	19.50	Arian Foster	19.50
TE	Vernon Davis	3.10	Dwayne Allen	12.70
W/R/T	Dwayne Allen	12.70	Doug Baldwin	23.80
K	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00
DEF	Chargers	3.58	Chargers	3.58

Carried by One Guy: Eli Manning, 23.02 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 14 – 20, 2014

Kev

108.59

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Martin

115.59

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.90 points left. Optimal 116.49 vs. actual 108.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	22.98	Drew Brees	22.98
WR	James Jones	5.50	Rueben Randle	10.40
WR	Rueben Randle	10.40	Cordarrelle Patterson	9.00
WR	Justin Hunter	1.10	James Jones	5.50
RB	Andre Ellington	19.00	Andre Ellington	19.00
RB	Jerick McKinnon	13.10	Jerick McKinnon	13.10
TE	Larry Donnell	8.50	Larry Donnell	8.50
W/R/T	Malcom Floyd	6.50	Malcom Floyd	6.50
K	Adam Vinatieri	10.00	Adam Vinatieri	10.00
DEF	Bills	11.51	Bills	11.51

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 22.98 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ronnie Hillman scored 24.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.14 points left. Optimal 118.73 vs. actual 115.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	22.44	Tom Brady	22.44
WR	DeSean Jackson	6.40	DeAndre Hopkins	13.80
WR	Michael Crabtree	4.70	Kelvin Benjamin	13.60
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	13.60	DeSean Jackson	6.40
RB	Jonathan Stewart	6.70	Ronnie Hillman	24.30
RB	Ronnie Hillman	24.30	Jonathan Stewart	6.70
TE	Jordan Reed	7.90	Jordan Reed	7.90
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	13.80	Travis Kelce	5.30
K	Mason Crosby	8.00	Mason Crosby	8.00
DEF	Bears	7.75	Broncos	10.29

Carried by One Guy: Ronnie Hillman, 24.30 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–4	4.000	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Miller	2–5	2.636	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	6–1	4.545	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	7–0	4.455	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Demich	2–5	3.545	-6.0	-0.545	1 / 3
Fischer	6–1	4.545	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Josh	5–2	4.636	-3.5	-0.318	0 / 1
Big Hut	2–5	3.455	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Kev	1–6	1.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	4–3	4.000	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Martin	3–4	2.364	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Krajcik	1–6	2.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2014 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Martin lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7