2014 week 14 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 2 – 8, 2014

Demich

129.31

Kev

68.62

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.30 points left. Optimal 160.61 vs. actual 129.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	2.72	Peyton Manning	2.72
WR	Golden Tate	7.00	Golden Tate	7.00
WR	A.J. Green	35.90	A.J. Green	35.90
WR	Jarvis Landry	9.96	Jarvis Landry	9.96
RB	Mark Ingram II	4.60	James Starks	17.10
RB	Tre Mason	6.60	Tre Mason	6.60
TE	Jason Witten	3.60	Mychal Rivera	22.40
W/R/T	Charles Johnson	20.30	Charles Johnson	20.30
K	Dan Bailey	10.00	Dan Bailey	10.00
DEF	Rams	28.63	Rams	28.63

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 35.90 points (27.8% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.49 points left. Optimal 79.11 vs. actual 68.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	12.00	Drew Brees	12.00
WR	Malcom Floyd	12.90	Denard Robinson	3.00
WR	Rueben Randle	1.40	Malcom Floyd	12.90
WR	Denard Robinson	3.00	Greg Jennings	7.70
RB	Matt Asiata	8.14	Matt Asiata	8.14
RB	Jeremy Hill	8.20	Jeremy Hill	8.20
TE	Larry Donnell	4.80	Larry Donnell	4.80
W/R/T	Nate Washington	7.10	Nate Washington	7.10
K	Adam Vinatieri	9.00	Adam Vinatieri	9.00
DEF	Packers	2.08	Bills	6.27

Carried by One Guy: Malcom Floyd, 12.90 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 2 – 8, 2014

Miller

189.33

Krajcik

95.22

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.90 points left. Optimal 205.23 vs. actual 189.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	29.90	Cam Newton	35.34
WR	Calvin Johnson	27.80	Eric Decker	11.90
WR	Keenan Allen	1.44	Martavis Bryant	20.90
WR	Martavis Bryant	20.90	Calvin Johnson	27.80
RB	Fred Jackson	12.20	Le'Veon Bell	46.50
RB	Le'Veon Bell	46.50	Fred Jackson	12.20
TE	Kyle Rudolph	1.90	Kyle Rudolph	1.90
W/R/T	Percy Harvin	26.88	Percy Harvin	26.88
K	Phil Dawson	8.00	Phil Dawson	8.00
DEF	Patriots	13.81	Patriots	13.81

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 46.50 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.14 points left. Optimal 129.36 vs. actual 95.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	13.68	Ryan Tannehill	13.68
WR	Anquan Boldin	7.80	Doug Baldwin	18.30
WR	Brandon Marshall	7.60	Allen Hurns	12.10
WR	Torrey Smith	0.00	Anquan Boldin	7.80
RB	Darren Sproles	0.00	Benny Cunningham Jr.	7.70
RB	Arian Foster	23.80	Arian Foster	23.80
TE	Jared Cook	20.10	Jared Cook	20.10
W/R/T	Benny Cunningham Jr.	7.70	Wes Welker	11.34
K	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00	Stephen Gostkowski	9.00
DEF	Chiefs	5.54	Chiefs	5.54

Carried by One Guy: Arian Foster, 23.80 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 2 – 8, 2014

Horgan

125.88

Big Hut

96.29

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.70 points left. Optimal 130.58 vs. actual 125.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	33.30	Matt Ryan	33.30
WR	Reggie Wayne	1.00	Demaryius Thomas	2.10
WR	Andre Johnson	3.70	Stedman Bailey	5.70
WR	Demaryius Thomas	2.10	Andre Johnson	3.70
RB	Marshawn Lynch	17.80	Isaiah Crowell	11.40
RB	Isaiah Crowell	11.40	Marshawn Lynch	17.80
TE	Rob Gronkowski	18.70	Rob Gronkowski	18.70
W/R/T	Dan Herron	9.10	Dan Herron	9.10
K	Mason Crosby	14.00	Mason Crosby	14.00
DEF	Lions	14.78	Lions	14.78

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 33.30 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.44 points left. Optimal 117.73 vs. actual 96.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	9.56	Andy Dalton	28.28
WR	Mike Wallace	5.40	Dez Bryant	11.20
WR	Dez Bryant	11.20	Julio Jones	39.40
WR	Julio Jones	39.40	Mike Wallace	5.40
RB	Frank Gore	6.30	Frank Gore	6.30
RB	Alfred Morris	2.20	Rashad Jennings	2.70
TE	Heath Miller	8.60	Heath Miller	8.60
W/R/T	Markus Wheaton	4.48	Andrew Quarless	6.70
K	Stephen Hauschka	7.00	Stephen Hauschka	7.00
DEF	49ers	2.15	49ers	2.15

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 39.40 points (40.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matt Ryan scored 33.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 2 – 8, 2014

Josh

105.16

Joe Shore

128.12

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.48 points left. Optimal 140.64 vs. actual 105.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	10.36	Mark Sanchez	10.54
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	8.90	Emmanuel Sanders	8.90
WR	Josh Gordon	2.50	Sammy Watkins	16.20
WR	Sammy Watkins	16.20	Roddy White	11.70
RB	Chris Ivory	6.20	DeMarco Murray	35.30
RB	DeMarco Murray	35.30	Andre Williams	24.20
TE	Jimmy Graham	4.00	Jimmy Graham	4.00
W/R/T	Julius Thomas	0.00	Harry Douglas	8.10
K	Chandler Catanzaro	10.00	Chandler Catanzaro	10.00
DEF	Cardinals	11.70	Cardinals	11.70

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: DeMarco Murray, 35.30 points (33.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: T.Y. Hilton scored 32.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.20 points left. Optimal 151.32 vs. actual 128.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	29.88	Aaron Rodgers	29.88
WR	Jeremy Maclin	9.60	T.Y. Hilton	32.00
WR	T.Y. Hilton	32.00	Vincent Jackson	22.90
WR	Kenny Stills	3.80	Jeremy Maclin	9.60
RB	Matt Forte	20.00	Matt Forte	20.00
RB	Justin Forsett	14.80	Justin Forsett	14.80
TE	Antonio Gates	5.90	Antonio Gates	5.90
W/R/T	Stepfan Taylor	3.10	Pierre Thomas	7.20
K	Cody Parkey	2.00	Cody Parkey	2.00
DEF	Eagles	7.04	Eagles	7.04

Carried by One Guy: T.Y. Hilton, 32.00 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

2014 week 14 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Consolation

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Playoff

Horgan lineup

Big Hut lineup

Playoff

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup