2014 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 4 – 10, 2014

j-mart

77.18

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Martin

112.20

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 77.18 vs. actual 77.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Michael Vick	17.18	Michael Vick	17.18
WR	Steve Smith	3.20	Taylor Gabriel	4.60
WR	Marques Colston	4.60	Steve Smith	3.20
WR	Taylor Gabriel	4.60	Marques Colston	4.60
RB	Bobby Rainey	7.60	Bobby Rainey	7.60
RB	Eddie Lacy	19.30	Eddie Lacy	19.30
TE	Vernon Davis	1.30	Vernon Davis	1.30
W/R/T	DeAngelo Williams	4.30	DeAngelo Williams	4.30
K	Shaun Suisham	8.00	Shaun Suisham	8.00
DEF	Steelers	7.10	Steelers	7.10

Carried by One Guy: Eddie Lacy, 19.30 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 112.20 vs. actual 112.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	8.88	Jay Cutler	8.88
WR	Michael Crabtree	7.70	Kelvin Benjamin	20.50
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	20.50	Jordan Matthews	31.30
WR	Jordan Matthews	31.30	Michael Crabtree	7.70
RB	Jonathan Stewart	13.90	Ronnie Hillman	3.20
RB	Ronnie Hillman	3.20	Jonathan Stewart	13.90
TE	Travis Kelce	2.90	Travis Kelce	2.90
W/R/T	Charles Clay	8.00	Charles Clay	8.00
K	Patrick Murray	7.00	Patrick Murray	7.00
DEF	Broncos	8.82	Broncos	8.82

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Matthews, 31.30 points (27.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 4 – 10, 2014

Adam

131.73

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev

89.82

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.20 points left. Optimal 148.93 vs. actual 131.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	17.10	Matthew Stafford	17.10
WR	Jordy Nelson	32.20	Randall Cobb	13.52
WR	Randall Cobb	13.52	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.40
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.40	Jordy Nelson	32.20
RB	Jamaal Charles	19.30	Bryce Brown	11.00
RB	Joique Bell	9.10	Jamaal Charles	19.30
TE	Martellus Bennett	5.50	Martellus Bennett	5.50
W/R/T	Lamar Miller	1.10	Cecil Shorts	16.40
K	Justin Tucker	3.00	Justin Tucker	3.00
DEF	Ravens	13.51	Ravens	13.51

Carried by One Guy: Jordy Nelson, 32.20 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.44 points left. Optimal 100.26 vs. actual 89.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	18.38	Drew Brees	18.38
WR	Rueben Randle	6.40	Rueben Randle	6.40
WR	Justin Hunter	2.20	Denard Robinson	18.00
WR	Denard Robinson	18.00	James Jones	6.00
RB	Andre Ellington	12.70	Andre Ellington	12.70
RB	Jeremy Hill	4.60	Jeremy Hill	4.60
TE	Larry Donnell	4.60	Larry Donnell	4.60
W/R/T	Kenny Britt	4.60	Carlos Hyde	11.24
K	Shayne Graham	7.00	Shayne Graham	7.00
DEF	Bills	11.34	Bills	11.34

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 18.38 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 4 – 10, 2014

Horgan

128.24

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Big Hut

143.06

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 128.24 vs. actual 128.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	15.66	Matt Ryan	15.66
WR	Demaryius Thomas	18.30	Demaryius Thomas	18.30
WR	Terrance Williams	0.00	Terrance Williams	0.00
WR	Davante Adams	1.50	Davante Adams	1.50
RB	Marshawn Lynch	42.80	Terrance West	15.40
RB	Terrance West	15.40	Marshawn Lynch	42.80
TE	Owen Daniels	3.00	Owen Daniels	3.00
W/R/T	Kendall Wright	7.40	Kendall Wright	7.40
K	Mason Crosby	14.00	Mason Crosby	14.00
DEF	Lions	10.18	Lions	10.18

Carried by One Guy: Marshawn Lynch, 42.80 points (33.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dez Bryant scored 32.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 143.06 vs. actual 143.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	12.80	Colin Kaepernick	12.80
WR	Mike Wallace	13.60	Dez Bryant	32.80
WR	Dez Bryant	32.80	Brandin Cooks	17.58
WR	Brandin Cooks	17.58	Mike Wallace	13.60
RB	Frank Gore	14.80	Ben Tate	13.10
RB	Ben Tate	13.10	Frank Gore	14.80
TE	Heath Miller	4.40	Heath Miller	4.40
W/R/T	Julio Jones	17.90	Julio Jones	17.90
K	Stephen Hauschka	7.00	Stephen Hauschka	7.00
DEF	49ers	9.08	49ers	9.08

Carried by One Guy: Dez Bryant, 32.80 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 4 – 10, 2014

Demich

122.93

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Josh

169.40

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.94 points left. Optimal 135.87 vs. actual 122.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	31.60	Peyton Manning	31.60
WR	Golden Tate	18.40	Golden Tate	18.40
WR	A.J. Green	3.80	Allen Robinson	10.50
WR	Allen Robinson	10.50	Jarvis Landry	9.64
RB	Reggie Bush	3.00	Mark Ingram II	17.40
RB	Mark Ingram II	17.40	Tre Mason	10.10
TE	Jason Witten	11.80	Jason Witten	11.80
W/R/T	Mychal Rivera	15.40	Mychal Rivera	15.40
K	Dan Bailey	9.00	Dan Bailey	9.00
DEF	Buccaneers	2.03	Buccaneers	2.03

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 31.60 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.30 points left. Optimal 183.70 vs. actual 169.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mark Sanchez	23.18	Mark Sanchez	23.18
WR	Roddy White	16.20	Emmanuel Sanders	21.70
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	21.70	Roddy White	16.20
WR	Sammy Watkins	4.70	Dwayne Bowe	13.30
RB	Chris Ivory	5.10	DeMarco Murray	18.10
RB	DeMarco Murray	18.10	Andre Williams	10.80
TE	Julius Thomas	21.30	Julius Thomas	21.30
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	24.60	Jimmy Graham	24.60
K	Chandler Catanzaro	8.00	Chandler Catanzaro	8.00
DEF	Cardinals	26.52	Cardinals	26.52

Carried by One Guy: Cardinals, 26.52 points (15.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 4 – 10, 2014

Miller

124.66

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Joe Shore

121.81

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.10 points left. Optimal 124.76 vs. actual 124.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	15.72	Ben Roethlisberger	15.72
WR	Calvin Johnson	22.80	Martavis Bryant	24.30
WR	Percy Harvin	7.48	Calvin Johnson	22.80
WR	Eric Decker	3.90	Percy Harvin	7.48
RB	Fred Jackson	6.90	Le'Veon Bell	10.90
RB	Le'Veon Bell	10.90	Fred Jackson	6.90
TE	Clay Harbor	4.30	Clay Harbor	4.30
W/R/T	Martavis Bryant	24.30	Chris Johnson	4.00
K	Phil Dawson	10.00	Phil Dawson	10.00
DEF	Packers	18.36	Packers	18.36

Carried by One Guy: Martavis Bryant, 24.30 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.26 points left. Optimal 160.07 vs. actual 121.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	38.60	Aaron Rodgers	38.60
WR	Vincent Jackson	11.50	Larry Fitzgerald	17.70
WR	Jeremy Maclin	5.30	Vincent Jackson	11.50
WR	Mohamed Sanu	3.00	Jeremy Maclin	5.30
RB	Matt Forte	9.60	Matt Forte	9.60
RB	Justin Forsett	25.20	Justin Forsett	25.20
TE	Delanie Walker	5.20	Delanie Walker	5.20
W/R/T	Travaris Cadet	6.12	Travaris Cadet	6.12
K	Cody Parkey	9.00	Cody Parkey	9.00
DEF	Seahawks	8.29	Eagles	31.85

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 38.60 points (31.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Martavis Bryant scored 24.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 4 – 10, 2014

Fischer

132.19

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

128.08

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.26 points left. Optimal 132.45 vs. actual 132.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	21.58	Tony Romo	21.84
WR	Antonio Brown	7.54	Antonio Brown	7.54
WR	Alshon Jeffery	10.10	Alshon Jeffery	10.10
WR	Mike Evans	24.00	Mike Evans	24.00
RB	LeSean McCoy	8.20	Bishop Sankey	8.90
RB	Bishop Sankey	8.90	LeSean McCoy	8.20
TE	Greg Olsen	16.90	Greg Olsen	16.90
W/R/T	Steven Jackson	16.50	Steven Jackson	16.50
K	Billy Cundiff	6.00	Billy Cundiff	6.00
DEF	Cowboys	12.47	Cowboys	12.47

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 24.00 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures unavailable: inconsistent-eligibility.

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Marshall, 23.20 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mike Evans scored 24.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Roster evidence flags: inconsistent-eligibility.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–7	4.182	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Miller	3–7	3.545	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 0
Adam	8–2	5.909	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	9–1	6.727	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Demich	2–8	4.909	-6.5	-0.591	1 / 4
Fischer	8–2	6.273	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Josh	6–4	6.636	-4.0	-0.364	0 / 2
Big Hut	5–5	5.000	-1.0	-0.091	2 / 2
Kev	3–7	3.273	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Joe Shore	6–4	5.909	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Martin	5–5	4.182	-0.5	-0.045	2 / 1
Krajcik	2–8	3.455	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1

2014 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Krajcik lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10