2014 week 9 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2014

j-mart

95.72

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

122.57

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.40 points left. Optimal 98.12 vs. actual 95.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	32.66	Andrew Luck	32.66
WR	Steve Smith	6.10	Steve Smith	6.10
WR	Marques Colston	5.10	Marques Colston	5.10
WR	Pierre Garcon	3.00	Pierre Garcon	3.00
RB	Shane Vereen	15.20	Shane Vereen	15.20
RB	Bobby Rainey	12.60	Bobby Rainey	12.60
TE	Vernon Davis	2.90	Vernon Davis	2.90
W/R/T	Branden Oliver	3.10	DeAngelo Williams	5.50
K	Randy Bullock	3.00	Randy Bullock	3.00
DEF	Patriots	12.06	Patriots	12.06

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 32.66 points (34.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jeremy Maclin scored 32.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.60 points left. Optimal 132.17 vs. actual 122.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	10.26	Russell Wilson	10.26
WR	Vincent Jackson	11.60	T.Y. Hilton	14.60
WR	Jeremy Maclin	32.80	Vincent Jackson	11.60
WR	T.Y. Hilton	14.60	Jeremy Maclin	32.80
RB	Justin Forsett	13.00	Trent Richardson	5.20
RB	Travaris Cadet	4.50	Justin Forsett	13.00
TE	Antonio Gates	4.30	Antonio Gates	4.30
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	9.50	Mohamed Sanu	18.40
K	Cody Parkey	8.00	Cody Parkey	8.00
DEF	Seahawks	14.01	Seahawks	14.01

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Maclin, 32.80 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2014

Miller

104.86

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Kev

158.04

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 54.36 points left. Optimal 159.22 vs. actual 104.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	12.34	Ben Roethlisberger	37.70
WR	Percy Harvin	22.96	Eric Decker	16.80
WR	Eric Decker	16.80	Keenan Allen	6.70
WR	Keenan Allen	6.70	Percy Harvin	22.96
RB	Chris Johnson	11.10	Le'Veon Bell	14.30
RB	Le'Veon Bell	14.30	Chris Johnson	11.10
TE	Clay Harbor	0.00	Coby Fleener	15.70
W/R/T	Andrew Hawkins	4.90	Martavis Bryant	18.20
K	Phil Dawson	4.00	Phil Dawson	4.00
DEF	Browns	11.76	Browns	11.76

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Percy Harvin, 22.96 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.20 points left. Optimal 163.24 vs. actual 158.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	18.08	Drew Brees	18.08
WR	Rueben Randle	6.90	Rueben Randle	6.90
WR	Cordarrelle Patterson	2.80	Denard Robinson	17.40
WR	Denard Robinson	17.40	Malcom Floyd	8.00
RB	Andre Ellington	21.40	Andre Ellington	21.40
RB	Jerick McKinnon	8.30	Jerick McKinnon	8.30
TE	Larry Donnell	10.50	Larry Donnell	10.50
W/R/T	Jeremy Hill	30.80	Jeremy Hill	30.80
K	Adam Vinatieri	19.00	Adam Vinatieri	19.00
DEF	Dolphins	22.86	Dolphins	22.86

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Hill, 30.80 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2014

Adam

89.92

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

107.82

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 89.92 vs. actual 89.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	15.96	Alex Smith	15.96
WR	Brandon LaFell	14.30	Brandon LaFell	14.30
WR	Cecil Shorts	6.50	Cecil Shorts	6.50
WR	Michael Floyd	5.60	Michael Floyd	5.60
RB	Jamaal Charles	15.80	Ben Tate	5.20
RB	Ben Tate	5.20	Jamaal Charles	15.80
TE	Timothy Wright	0.00	Timothy Wright	0.00
W/R/T	Lamar Miller	12.20	Lamar Miller	12.20
K	Justin Tucker	6.00	Justin Tucker	6.00
DEF	Ravens	8.36	Ravens	8.36

Carried by One Guy: Alex Smith, 15.96 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Alfred Morris scored 23.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.10 points left. Optimal 111.92 vs. actual 107.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	10.88	Andy Dalton	14.42
WR	Mike Wallace	6.50	Dez Bryant	8.50
WR	Dez Bryant	8.50	Hakeem Nicks	5.90
WR	Brandin Cooks	5.34	Mike Wallace	6.50
RB	Frank Gore	6.30	Alfred Morris	23.90
RB	Alfred Morris	23.90	Frank Gore	6.30
TE	Heath Miller	1.90	Heath Miller	1.90
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	21.54	Odell Beckham Jr.	21.54
K	Stephen Hauschka	13.00	Stephen Hauschka	13.00
DEF	49ers	9.96	49ers	9.96

Carried by One Guy: Alfred Morris, 23.90 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2014

Horgan

132.84

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Josh

113.54

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 132.84 vs. actual 132.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Carson Palmer	19.76	Carson Palmer	19.76
WR	Reggie Wayne	15.00	Demaryius Thomas	18.20
WR	Andre Johnson	2.20	Reggie Wayne	15.00
WR	Demaryius Thomas	18.20	Andre Johnson	2.20
RB	Marshawn Lynch	28.80	Marshawn Lynch	28.80
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	9.40	Ahmad Bradshaw	9.40
TE	Rob Gronkowski	23.00	Rob Gronkowski	23.00
W/R/T	Terrance Williams	2.90	Terrance Williams	2.90
K	Blair Walsh	3.00	Blair Walsh	3.00
DEF	Bengals	10.58	Bengals	10.58

Carried by One Guy: Marshawn Lynch, 28.80 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 113.54 vs. actual 113.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	-2.18	Philip Rivers	-2.18
WR	Dwayne Bowe	8.50	Emmanuel Sanders	22.36
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	22.36	Torrey Smith	14.30
WR	Torrey Smith	14.30	Dwayne Bowe	8.50
RB	DeMarco Murray	11.00	DeMarco Murray	11.00
RB	Andre Williams	11.10	Andre Williams	11.10
TE	Julius Thomas	10.30	Julius Thomas	10.30
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	17.80	Jimmy Graham	17.80
K	Chandler Catanzaro	4.00	Chandler Catanzaro	4.00
DEF	Texans	16.36	Texans	16.36

Carried by One Guy: Emmanuel Sanders, 22.36 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Marshawn Lynch scored 28.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2014

Demich

110.22

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

144.28

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.80 points left. Optimal 115.02 vs. actual 110.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	23.82	Peyton Manning	23.82
WR	A.J. Green	11.60	A.J. Green	11.60
WR	Andre Holmes	3.80	Allen Robinson	5.50
WR	Jarvis Landry	14.82	Jarvis Landry	14.82
RB	Mark Ingram II	25.50	Mark Ingram II	25.50
RB	Juwan Thompson	1.70	Tre Mason	6.20
TE	Jason Witten	9.20	Jason Witten	9.20
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	5.50	Cedric Peerman	4.10
K	Dan Bailey	7.00	Dan Bailey	7.00
DEF	Buccaneers	7.28	Buccaneers	7.28

Carried by One Guy: Mark Ingram II, 25.50 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 144.28 vs. actual 144.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	24.16	Eli Manning	24.16
WR	Julian Edelman	27.08	Antonio Brown	27.90
WR	Antonio Brown	27.90	Mike Evans	29.90
WR	Mike Evans	29.90	Julian Edelman	27.08
RB	LeSean McCoy	14.80	Jonas Gray	3.30
RB	Jonas Gray	3.30	LeSean McCoy	14.80
TE	Greg Olsen	4.50	Greg Olsen	4.50
W/R/T	Miles Austin	6.90	Miles Austin	6.90
K	Nick Novak	0.00	Nick Novak	0.00
DEF	Colts	5.74	Colts	5.74

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 29.90 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2014

Martin

132.27

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

101.16

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.47 points left. Optimal 151.74 vs. actual 132.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	29.72	Tom Brady	29.72
WR	DeSean Jackson	22.00	DeAndre Hopkins	22.50
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	22.50	DeSean Jackson	22.00
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	2.80	Michael Crabtree	6.50
RB	Jonathan Stewart	4.60	Ronnie Hillman	21.80
RB	Ronnie Hillman	21.80	Jonathan Stewart	4.60
TE	Travis Kelce	14.70	Travis Kelce	14.70
W/R/T	Michael Crabtree	6.50	Charles Clay	15.00
K	Mike Nugent	7.00	Mike Nugent	7.00
DEF	Commanders	0.65	Vikings	7.92

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 29.72 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.58 points left. Optimal 132.74 vs. actual 101.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	7.06	Nick Foles	7.06
WR	Anquan Boldin	18.30	Doug Baldwin	7.04
WR	Wes Welker	4.60	Allen Hurns	28.70
WR	Doug Baldwin	7.04	Anquan Boldin	18.30
RB	Arian Foster	18.90	Darren Sproles	8.84
RB	Chris Ivory	2.20	Arian Foster	18.90
TE	Dwayne Allen	12.80	Dwayne Allen	12.80
W/R/T	Benny Cunningham Jr.	7.86	Darren McFadden	8.70
K	Stephen Gostkowski	14.00	Stephen Gostkowski	14.00
DEF	Chiefs	8.40	Chiefs	8.40

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Arian Foster, 18.90 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–6	4.182	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Miller	2–7	3.091	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	7–2	5.182	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	9–0	6.091	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Demich	2–7	4.545	-6.5	-0.591	1 / 4
Fischer	7–2	5.455	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Josh	5–4	5.636	-4.0	-0.364	0 / 2
Big Hut	4–5	4.091	-1.0	-0.091	2 / 2
Kev	3–6	3.182	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Joe Shore	6–3	5.636	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Martin	4–5	4.000	-4.0	-0.364	1 / 1
Krajcik	2–7	2.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2014 week 9 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Krajcik lineup

Cumulative totals through week 9