2014 week 15 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 9 – 15, 2014

j-mart

111.22

Miller

103.95

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.80 points left. Optimal 112.02 vs. actual 111.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	15.28	Andrew Luck	15.28
WR	Steve Smith	6.20	Steve Smith	6.20
WR	Marques Colston	15.00	Marques Colston	15.00
WR	Pierre Garcon	5.60	Pierre Garcon	5.60
RB	Shane Vereen	8.20	Eddie Lacy	17.80
RB	Eddie Lacy	17.80	Branden Oliver	9.00
TE	Owen Daniels	14.20	Owen Daniels	14.20
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	8.60	Latavius Murray	8.60
K	Randy Bullock	6.00	Randy Bullock	6.00
DEF	Texans	14.34	Texans	14.34

Carried by One Guy: Eddie Lacy, 17.80 points (16.0% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.28 points left. Optimal 126.23 vs. actual 103.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	16.20	Ben Roethlisberger	16.20
WR	Calvin Johnson	7.30	Eric Decker	15.50
WR	Keenan Allen	3.36	Martavis Bryant	4.60
WR	Martavis Bryant	4.60	Calvin Johnson	7.30
RB	Fred Jackson	11.30	Le'Veon Bell	26.40
RB	Le'Veon Bell	26.40	Fred Jackson	11.30
TE	Kyle Rudolph	10.40	Kyle Rudolph	10.40
W/R/T	Percy Harvin	1.66	Giovani Bernard	11.80
K	Phil Dawson	1.00	Phil Dawson	1.00
DEF	Patriots	21.73	Patriots	21.73

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Le'Veon Bell, 26.40 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Eddie Lacy scored 17.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Consolation

Dec 9 – 15, 2014

Demich

88.02

Martin

105.37

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.90 points left. Optimal 107.92 vs. actual 88.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	13.02	Peyton Manning	13.02
WR	Golden Tate	13.80	Golden Tate	13.80
WR	A.J. Green	7.40	Andre Holmes	9.50
WR	Jarvis Landry	15.06	Jarvis Landry	15.06
RB	Mark Ingram II	11.90	Mark Ingram II	11.90
RB	Tre Mason	1.30	Charles Sims	9.40
TE	Jason Witten	10.40	Jason Witten	10.40
W/R/T	Donte Moncrief	0.00	Charles Johnson	9.70
K	Dan Bailey	9.00	Dan Bailey	9.00
DEF	Rams	6.14	Rams	6.14

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jarvis Landry, 15.06 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 19.28; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.50 points left. Optimal 109.87 vs. actual 105.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	19.28	Tom Brady	19.28
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	10.20	DeAndre Hopkins	10.20
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	16.40	Kelvin Benjamin	16.40
WR	Jordan Matthews	0.00	DeSean Jackson	3.90
RB	Jonathan Stewart	6.60	Kerwynn Williams	9.60
RB	Kerwynn Williams	9.60	Jonathan Stewart	6.60
TE	Jordan Reed	2.80	Travis Kelce	12.40
W/R/T	Travis Kelce	12.40	Michael Crabtree	3.40
K	Graham Gano	14.00	Graham Gano	14.00
DEF	Giants	14.09	Giants	14.09

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 19.28 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 9 – 15, 2014

Kev

135.52

Krajcik

92.60

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.80 points left. Optimal 143.32 vs. actual 135.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	29.20	Drew Brees	29.20
WR	Malcom Floyd	4.90	Malcom Floyd	4.90
WR	Nate Washington	15.20	Nate Washington	15.20
WR	Rueben Randle	4.00	Greg Jennings	11.80
RB	Matt Asiata	18.10	Matt Asiata	18.10
RB	Jeremy Hill	29.70	Jeremy Hill	29.70
TE	Larry Donnell	2.10	Larry Donnell	2.10
W/R/T	Toby Gerhart	7.30	Toby Gerhart	7.30
K	Adam Vinatieri	4.00	Adam Vinatieri	4.00
DEF	Bills	21.02	Bills	21.02

Carried by One Guy: Jeremy Hill, 29.70 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.30 points left. Optimal 104.90 vs. actual 92.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	17.94	Ryan Tannehill	17.94
WR	Anquan Boldin	3.30	Doug Baldwin	6.80
WR	Torrey Smith	2.60	Allen Hurns	10.00
WR	Doug Baldwin	6.80	Anquan Boldin	3.30
RB	Darren Sproles	8.32	Darren Sproles	8.32
RB	Arian Foster	13.20	Arian Foster	13.20
TE	Jared Cook	3.70	Dwayne Allen	8.60
W/R/T	Benny Cunningham Jr.	7.52	Benny Cunningham Jr.	7.52
K	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00	Stephen Gostkowski	11.00
DEF	Chiefs	18.22	Chiefs	18.22

Carried by One Guy: Chiefs, 18.22 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 9 – 15, 2014

Horgan

125.34

Fischer

134.63

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.40 points left. Optimal 126.74 vs. actual 125.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	23.10	Matt Ryan	23.10
WR	Demaryius Thomas	23.30	Demaryius Thomas	23.30
WR	Marquess Wilson	9.10	Marquess Wilson	9.10
WR	Marqise Lee	3.40	Marqise Lee	3.40
RB	Marshawn Lynch	16.30	Trent Richardson	5.10
RB	Isaiah Crowell	3.70	Marshawn Lynch	16.30
TE	Rob Gronkowski	17.10	Rob Gronkowski	17.10
W/R/T	Dan Herron	8.20	Dan Herron	8.20
K	Mason Crosby	8.00	Mason Crosby	8.00
DEF	Lions	13.14	Lions	13.14

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 23.30 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Brown scored 20.16; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.50 points left. Optimal 146.13 vs. actual 134.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	11.42	Tony Romo	20.50
WR	Antonio Brown	20.16	Antonio Brown	20.16
WR	Alshon Jeffery	15.80	Alshon Jeffery	15.80
WR	Mike Evans	8.30	Mike Evans	8.30
RB	LeSean McCoy	7.00	LeGarrette Blount	9.40
RB	LeGarrette Blount	9.40	LeSean McCoy	7.00
TE	Greg Olsen	18.00	Greg Olsen	18.00
W/R/T	Julian Edelman	19.24	Julian Edelman	19.24
K	Dan Carpenter	15.00	Dan Carpenter	15.00
DEF	Seahawks	10.31	Colts	12.73

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 20.16 points (15.0% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 9 – 15, 2014

Josh

99.62

Big Hut

113.26

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.70 points left. Optimal 132.32 vs. actual 99.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	9.58	Philip Rivers	9.58
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	7.02	Emmanuel Sanders	7.02
WR	Josh Gordon	6.30	Roddy White	15.30
WR	Sammy Watkins	3.30	Harry Douglas	20.10
RB	Chris Ivory	9.10	Chris Ivory	9.10
RB	DeMarco Murray	20.90	DeMarco Murray	20.90
TE	Jimmy Graham	11.20	Jimmy Graham	11.20
W/R/T	Julius Thomas	3.50	Doug Martin	10.40
K	Chandler Catanzaro	15.00	Chandler Catanzaro	15.00
DEF	Cardinals	13.72	Cardinals	13.72

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: DeMarco Murray, 20.90 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dez Bryant scored 34.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.40 points left. Optimal 124.66 vs. actual 113.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	10.24	Colin Kaepernick	10.24
WR	Mike Wallace	20.90	Dez Bryant	34.40
WR	Dez Bryant	34.40	Hakeem Nicks	11.40
WR	Julio Jones	0.00	Mike Wallace	20.90
RB	Frank Gore	8.90	Alfred Morris	4.90
RB	Alfred Morris	4.90	Frank Gore	8.90
TE	Heath Miller	8.80	Heath Miller	8.80
W/R/T	Markus Wheaton	10.10	Markus Wheaton	10.10
K	Stephen Hauschka	5.00	Stephen Hauschka	5.00
DEF	49ers	10.02	49ers	10.02

Carried by One Guy: Dez Bryant, 34.40 points (30.4% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 9 – 15, 2014

Adam

138.65

Joe Shore

86.36

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.66 points left. Optimal 168.31 vs. actual 138.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	10.32	Eli Manning	22.00
WR	Jordy Nelson	8.00	Randall Cobb	14.70
WR	Randall Cobb	14.70	Cecil Shorts	10.60
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	38.68	Odell Beckham Jr.	38.68
RB	Jamaal Charles	5.80	Knile Davis	21.18
RB	C.J. Anderson	10.60	C.J. Anderson	10.60
TE	Martellus Bennett	7.60	Martellus Bennett	7.60
W/R/T	Joique Bell	12.30	Joique Bell	12.30
K	Justin Tucker	7.00	Justin Tucker	7.00
DEF	Ravens	23.65	Ravens	23.65

Carried by One Guy: Odell Beckham Jr., 38.68 points (27.9% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.00 points left. Optimal 97.36 vs. actual 86.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	6.10	Aaron Rodgers	6.10
WR	Vincent Jackson	10.00	Kenny Stills	9.20
WR	Jeremy Maclin	11.80	Vincent Jackson	10.00
WR	T.Y. Hilton	7.00	Jeremy Maclin	11.80
RB	Matt Forte	10.90	Pierre Thomas	11.90
RB	Justin Forsett	5.20	Matt Forte	10.90
TE	Antonio Gates	14.40	Antonio Gates	14.40
W/R/T	Kenny Stills	9.20	Delanie Walker	11.30
K	Cody Parkey	11.00	Cody Parkey	11.00
DEF	Eagles	0.76	Eagles	0.76

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Gates, 14.40 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

2014 week 15 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Consolation

Demich lineup

Martin lineup

Consolation

Kev lineup

Krajcik lineup

Playoff

Horgan lineup

Fischer lineup

Playoff

Josh lineup

Big Hut lineup

Playoff

Adam lineup

Joe Shore lineup