2014 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2014

j-mart

95.21

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

119.73

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.34 points left. Optimal 106.55 vs. actual 95.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	22.68	Andrew Luck	22.68
WR	Steve Smith	3.90	Steve Smith	3.90
WR	Brandon Marshall	5.90	Brandon Marshall	5.90
WR	Victor Cruz	3.70	Hakeem Nicks	4.40
RB	Darren Sproles	5.86	Bobby Rainey	11.70
RB	Eddie Lacy	28.70	Eddie Lacy	28.70
TE	Larry Donnell	0.00	Jordan Cameron	4.80
W/R/T	Doug Martin	8.90	Doug Martin	8.90
K	Shayne Graham	11.00	Shayne Graham	11.00
DEF	Chiefs	4.57	Chiefs	4.57

Carried by One Guy: Eddie Lacy, 28.70 points (30.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.40 points left. Optimal 120.13 vs. actual 119.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	20.96	Tony Romo	20.96
WR	Julian Edelman	6.24	Antonio Brown	11.30
WR	Antonio Brown	11.30	Alshon Jeffery	18.70
WR	Alshon Jeffery	18.70	Julian Edelman	6.24
RB	LeSean McCoy	8.60	Khiry Robinson	16.20
RB	Khiry Robinson	16.20	LeSean McCoy	8.60
TE	Greg Olsen	22.20	Greg Olsen	22.20
W/R/T	Bishop Sankey	2.70	Terrance West	3.10
K	Nick Novak	7.00	Nick Novak	7.00
DEF	Giants	5.83	Giants	5.83

Carried by One Guy: Greg Olsen, 22.20 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2014

Miller

100.23

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Demich

118.29

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.58 points left. Optimal 108.81 vs. actual 100.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	12.72	Cam Newton	15.10
WR	Calvin Johnson	1.20	Keenan Allen	4.20
WR	Percy Harvin	5.40	Stevie Johnson	7.40
WR	Keenan Allen	4.20	Percy Harvin	5.40
RB	Giovani Bernard	8.20	Giovani Bernard	8.20
RB	Le'Veon Bell	14.30	Le'Veon Bell	14.30
TE	Owen Daniels	9.50	Owen Daniels	9.50
W/R/T	Fred Jackson	16.20	Fred Jackson	16.20
K	Phil Dawson	19.00	Phil Dawson	19.00
DEF	Texans	9.51	Texans	9.51

Carried by One Guy: Phil Dawson, 19.00 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Peyton Manning scored 32.96; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.60 points left. Optimal 118.89 vs. actual 118.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	32.96	Peyton Manning	32.96
WR	Dwayne Bowe	5.70	Golden Tate	24.90
WR	Golden Tate	24.90	A.J. Green	14.60
WR	A.J. Green	14.60	Dwayne Bowe	5.70
RB	Reggie Bush	5.30	James Starks	5.80
RB	Matt Asiata	5.20	Reggie Bush	5.30
TE	Jason Witten	7.90	Jason Witten	7.90
W/R/T	Allen Robinson	7.60	Allen Robinson	7.60
K	Dan Bailey	9.00	Dan Bailey	9.00
DEF	Cowboys	5.13	Cowboys	5.13

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 32.96 points (27.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2014

Adam

93.54

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

156.02

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.70 points left. Optimal 102.24 vs. actual 93.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	12.04	Matthew Stafford	12.04
WR	Jordy Nelson	13.10	Randall Cobb	11.26
WR	Randall Cobb	11.26	Miles Austin	6.40
WR	Michael Floyd	1.20	Jordy Nelson	13.10
RB	Jamaal Charles	8.90	Ben Tate	14.70
RB	Ben Tate	14.70	Jamaal Charles	8.90
TE	Martellus Bennett	3.20	Delanie Walker	6.70
W/R/T	Brian Quick	23.20	Brian Quick	23.20
K	Justin Tucker	8.00	Justin Tucker	8.00
DEF	Bengals	-2.06	Bengals	-2.06

Carried by One Guy: Brian Quick, 23.20 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.10 points left. Optimal 189.12 vs. actual 156.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	16.64	Matt Ryan	16.64
WR	Reggie Wayne	11.20	Demaryius Thomas	40.60
WR	Andre Johnson	8.30	Kendall Wright	24.00
WR	Demaryius Thomas	40.60	Reggie Wayne	11.20
RB	Marshawn Lynch	20.20	Steven Jackson	15.90
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	8.50	Marshawn Lynch	20.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	21.00	Rob Gronkowski	21.00
W/R/T	Terrance Williams	14.10	Terrance Williams	14.10
K	Blair Walsh	3.00	Brandon McManus	13.00
DEF	Lions	12.48	Lions	12.48

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 40.60 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2014

Big Hut

102.56

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

142.65

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.12 points left. Optimal 122.68 vs. actual 102.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	13.84	Andy Dalton	17.76
WR	Dez Bryant	19.00	Dez Bryant	19.00
WR	Julio Jones	18.00	Julio Jones	18.00
WR	Brandin Cooks	11.84	Brandin Cooks	11.84
RB	Rashad Jennings	8.20	Frank Gore	13.30
RB	Alfred Morris	3.20	Rashad Jennings	8.20
TE	Heath Miller	6.10	Heath Miller	6.10
W/R/T	Frank Gore	13.30	Odell Beckham Jr.	12.40
K	Shaun Suisham	4.00	Stephen Hauschka	11.00
DEF	49ers	5.08	49ers	5.08

Carried by One Guy: Dez Bryant, 19.00 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 62.07 points left. Optimal 204.72 vs. actual 142.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	18.24	Russell Wilson	36.24
WR	Vincent Jackson	20.40	T.Y. Hilton	13.50
WR	Jeremy Maclin	16.10	Vincent Jackson	20.40
WR	T.Y. Hilton	13.50	Jeremy Maclin	16.10
RB	Matt Forte	28.60	Stevan Ridley	19.30
RB	Trent Richardson	6.70	Matt Forte	28.60
TE	Antonio Gates	20.00	Antonio Gates	20.00
W/R/T	Larry Fitzgerald	7.20	Justin Forsett	19.20
K	Cody Parkey	8.00	Cody Parkey	8.00
DEF	Seahawks	3.91	Eagles	23.38

Carried by One Guy: Matt Forte, 28.60 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2014

Josh

126.10

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin

94.14

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.10 points left. Optimal 140.20 vs. actual 126.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	21.82	Philip Rivers	21.82
WR	Roddy White	3.60	Emmanuel Sanders	16.40
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	16.40	Jeremy Kerley	3.90
WR	Sammy Watkins	12.20	Sammy Watkins	12.20
RB	DeMarco Murray	22.20	DeMarco Murray	22.20
RB	Denard Robinson	1.50	Andre Williams	15.30
TE	Julius Thomas	21.60	Julius Thomas	21.60
W/R/T	Jimmy Graham	4.60	Jimmy Graham	4.60
K	Nick Folk	0.00	Nick Folk	0.00
DEF	Packers	22.18	Packers	22.18

Carried by One Guy: DeMarco Murray, 22.20 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.54 points left. Optimal 130.68 vs. actual 94.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	21.76	Jay Cutler	21.76
WR	Michael Crabtree	2.10	Torrey Smith	5.30
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	9.30	DeAndre Hopkins	9.30
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	3.30	DeSean Jackson	26.20
RB	Pierre Thomas	27.20	Carlos Hyde	4.30
RB	Montee Ball	2.80	Pierre Thomas	27.20
TE	Travis Kelce	8.50	Travis Kelce	8.50
W/R/T	Zac Stacy	7.80	Zac Stacy	7.80
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Broncos	5.38	Colts	14.32

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Pierre Thomas, 27.20 points (28.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2014

Kev

112.76

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

111.70

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.08 points left. Optimal 134.84 vs. actual 112.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	18.74	Drew Brees	18.74
WR	Marques Colston	7.80	Rueben Randle	11.30
WR	Rueben Randle	11.30	Justin Hunter	17.40
WR	Cordarrelle Patterson	2.98	Malcom Floyd	8.70
RB	Andre Ellington	30.40	Andre Ellington	30.40
RB	Jeremy Hill	8.40	Jeremy Hill	8.40
TE	Zach Ertz	5.40	Zach Ertz	5.40
W/R/T	Eddie Royal	5.54	Shane Vereen	12.30
K	Adam Vinatieri	8.00	Adam Vinatieri	8.00
DEF	Bills	14.20	Bills	14.20

Carried by One Guy: Andre Ellington, 30.40 points (27.0% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.44 points left. Optimal 132.14 vs. actual 111.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	13.58	Nick Foles	13.58
WR	Anquan Boldin	9.20	Doug Baldwin	7.34
WR	Wes Welker	9.30	Anquan Boldin	9.20
WR	Pierre Garcon	3.30	Wes Welker	9.30
RB	Arian Foster	32.20	LeGarrette Blount	6.10
RB	Jacquizz Rodgers	2.20	Arian Foster	32.20
TE	Jared Cook	6.40	Jared Cook	6.40
W/R/T	John Brown	1.40	Dwayne Allen	13.90
K	Stephen Gostkowski	18.00	Stephen Gostkowski	18.00
DEF	Chargers	16.12	Chargers	16.12

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Arian Foster, 32.20 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Andre Ellington scored 30.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–4	2.727	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Miller	2–3	2.182	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	4–1	2.909	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	5–0	3.091	+2.5	+0.227	1 / 0
Demich	2–3	2.545	-3.5	-0.318	1 / 2
Fischer	5–0	3.818	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Josh	4–1	3.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	2–3	3.364	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Kev	1–4	1.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	3–2	2.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	1–4	1.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–5	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2014 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Krajcik lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5