2014 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 7 – 13, 2014

j-mart

153.72

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh

132.76

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.50 points left. Optimal 155.22 vs. actual 153.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	26.60	Andrew Luck	26.60
WR	Steve Smith	21.50	Steve Smith	21.50
WR	Brandon Marshall	16.30	Brandon Marshall	16.30
WR	Victor Cruz	2.60	Hakeem Nicks	2.80
RB	Darren Sproles	11.04	Doug Martin	5.30
RB	Eddie Lacy	4.00	Darren Sproles	11.04
TE	Jordan Cameron	19.70	Jordan Cameron	19.70
W/R/T	Branden Oliver	22.40	Branden Oliver	22.40
K	Matt Bryant	11.00	Matt Bryant	11.00
DEF	Cardinals	18.58	Cardinals	18.58

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 26.60 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.80 points left. Optimal 133.56 vs. actual 132.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	27.82	Philip Rivers	27.82
WR	Roddy White	5.50	Emmanuel Sanders	5.30
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	5.30	Torrey Smith	19.10
WR	Sammy Watkins	3.70	Roddy White	5.50
RB	DeMarco Murray	25.60	DeMarco Murray	25.60
RB	Andre Williams	5.90	Andre Williams	5.90
TE	Julius Thomas	19.10	Julius Thomas	19.10
W/R/T	Torrey Smith	19.10	Maurice Jones-Drew	4.50
K	Chandler Catanzaro	13.00	Chandler Catanzaro	13.00
DEF	Packers	7.74	Packers	7.74

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 27.82 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Andrew Luck scored 26.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 7 – 13, 2014

Miller

110.10

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

131.98

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.88 points left. Optimal 138.98 vs. actual 110.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	11.82	Cam Newton	36.06
WR	Percy Harvin	5.24	Eric Decker	14.40
WR	Eric Decker	14.40	Keenan Allen	4.78
WR	Keenan Allen	4.78	Percy Harvin	5.24
RB	Giovani Bernard	25.70	Giovani Bernard	25.70
RB	Le'Veon Bell	12.50	Le'Veon Bell	12.50
TE	Owen Daniels	4.40	Ladarius Green	8.00
W/R/T	Fred Jackson	12.30	Fred Jackson	12.30
K	Phil Dawson	9.00	Phil Dawson	9.00
DEF	Ravens	9.96	Texans	11.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Giovani Bernard, 25.70 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.54 points left. Optimal 148.52 vs. actual 131.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	15.90	Blake Bortles	21.24
WR	Julian Edelman	14.84	Antonio Brown	17.28
WR	Antonio Brown	17.28	Alshon Jeffery	18.10
WR	Alshon Jeffery	18.10	Julian Edelman	14.84
RB	LeSean McCoy	18.40	Bishop Sankey	7.30
RB	Bishop Sankey	7.30	LeSean McCoy	18.40
TE	Greg Olsen	15.20	Greg Olsen	15.20
W/R/T	Knowshon Moreno	2.30	Mike Evans	13.50
K	Nick Novak	7.00	Nick Novak	7.00
DEF	Titans	15.66	Titans	15.66

Carried by One Guy: LeSean McCoy, 18.40 points (13.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 7 – 13, 2014

Adam

132.56

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Demich

102.07

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.60 points left. Optimal 137.16 vs. actual 132.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	11.50	Matthew Stafford	11.50
WR	Jordy Nelson	23.20	Randall Cobb	14.40
WR	Randall Cobb	14.40	Cecil Shorts	15.30
WR	Michael Floyd	12.70	Jordy Nelson	23.20
RB	Ben Tate	19.80	Ben Tate	19.80
RB	Lamar Miller	14.80	Lamar Miller	14.80
TE	Delanie Walker	7.20	Martellus Bennett	9.20
W/R/T	Joique Bell	16.70	Joique Bell	16.70
K	Justin Tucker	14.00	Justin Tucker	14.00
DEF	Bengals	-1.74	Bengals	-1.74

Carried by One Guy: Jordy Nelson, 23.20 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 102.07 vs. actual 102.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	21.48	Peyton Manning	21.48
WR	Golden Tate	7.90	Golden Tate	7.90
WR	Jarius Wright	5.80	Jarius Wright	5.80
WR	Allen Robinson	10.80	Allen Robinson	10.80
RB	James Starks	5.20	James Starks	5.20
RB	Matt Asiata	1.80	Matt Asiata	1.80
TE	Jason Witten	9.40	Jason Witten	9.40
W/R/T	Brandon Tate	13.28	Brandon Tate	13.28
K	Dan Bailey	15.00	Dan Bailey	15.00
DEF	Patriots	11.41	Patriots	11.41

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 21.48 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 7 – 13, 2014

Kev

65.56

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

183.53

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 40.40 points left. Optimal 105.96 vs. actual 65.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Teddy Bridgewater	2.62	Teddy Bridgewater	2.62
WR	Rueben Randle	8.30	Malcom Floyd	20.80
WR	Cordarrelle Patterson	3.00	James Jones	14.10
WR	Justin Hunter	9.20	Eddie Royal	11.90
RB	Andre Ellington	12.30	Andre Ellington	12.30
RB	Jeremy Hill	11.50	Jeremy Hill	11.50
TE	Larry Donnell	1.10	Zach Ertz	12.20
W/R/T	Eddie Royal	11.90	Antone Smith	14.90
K	Adam Vinatieri	8.00	Adam Vinatieri	8.00
DEF	Bills	-2.36	Bills	-2.36

Carried by One Guy: Andre Ellington, 12.30 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.30 points left. Optimal 202.83 vs. actual 183.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	25.96	Aaron Rodgers	25.96
WR	Vincent Jackson	8.60	Mohamed Sanu	25.00
WR	Jeremy Maclin	2.60	T.Y. Hilton	34.80
WR	T.Y. Hilton	34.80	Larry Fitzgerald	18.80
RB	Matt Forte	32.70	Matt Forte	32.70
RB	Justin Forsett	13.10	Justin Forsett	13.10
TE	Antonio Gates	10.20	Antonio Gates	10.20
W/R/T	Mohamed Sanu	25.00	Isaiah Crowell	11.70
K	Cody Parkey	10.00	Cody Parkey	10.00
DEF	Eagles	20.57	Eagles	20.57

Carried by One Guy: T.Y. Hilton, 34.80 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 7 – 13, 2014

Big Hut

95.75

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Martin

132.66

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.84 points left. Optimal 107.59 vs. actual 95.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	31.42	Colin Kaepernick	31.42
WR	Mike Wallace	15.20	Dez Bryant	8.30
WR	Dez Bryant	8.30	Julio Jones	8.90
WR	Julio Jones	8.90	Mike Wallace	15.20
RB	Frank Gore	3.80	Alfred Morris	6.00
RB	Alfred Morris	6.00	Frank Gore	3.80
TE	Heath Miller	2.90	Heath Miller	2.90
W/R/T	C.J. Spiller	0.94	Odell Beckham Jr.	3.78
K	Shaun Suisham	3.00	Stephen Hauschka	12.00
DEF	49ers	15.29	49ers	15.29

Carried by One Guy: Colin Kaepernick, 31.42 points (32.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.10 points left. Optimal 141.76 vs. actual 132.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	23.64	Tom Brady	32.74
WR	DeSean Jackson	21.50	DeAndre Hopkins	1.70
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	1.70	Kelvin Benjamin	14.40
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	14.40	DeSean Jackson	21.50
RB	Ronnie Hillman	15.10	Ronnie Hillman	15.10
RB	Zac Stacy	4.40	Zac Stacy	4.40
TE	Jordan Reed	13.20	Jordan Reed	13.20
W/R/T	Michael Crabtree	12.40	Michael Crabtree	12.40
K	Mason Crosby	10.00	Mason Crosby	10.00
DEF	Broncos	16.32	Broncos	16.32

Carried by One Guy: Jay Cutler, 23.64 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 7 – 13, 2014

Horgan

123.45

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Krajcik

101.91

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.10 points left. Optimal 135.55 vs. actual 123.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	12.74	Matt Ryan	12.74
WR	Reggie Wayne	5.50	Demaryius Thomas	25.40
WR	Andre Johnson	17.40	Terrance Williams	8.00
WR	Demaryius Thomas	25.40	Andre Johnson	17.40
RB	Marshawn Lynch	6.70	Marshawn Lynch	6.70
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	13.40	Ahmad Bradshaw	13.40
TE	Rob Gronkowski	12.90	Rob Gronkowski	12.90
W/R/T	Kendall Wright	1.10	Davante Adams	10.70
K	Brandon McManus	7.00	Brandon McManus	7.00
DEF	Lions	21.31	Lions	21.31

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 25.40 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.10 points left. Optimal 123.01 vs. actual 101.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	14.42	Nick Foles	14.42
WR	Wes Welker	1.30	John Brown	6.30
WR	Pierre Garcon	11.10	Anquan Boldin	18.90
WR	Allen Hurns	2.80	Pierre Garcon	11.10
RB	Darren McFadden	9.60	Darren McFadden	9.60
RB	Arian Foster	29.60	Arian Foster	29.60
TE	Jared Cook	9.40	Jared Cook	9.40
W/R/T	Dwayne Allen	6.40	Dwayne Allen	6.40
K	Stephen Gostkowski	17.00	Stephen Gostkowski	17.00
DEF	Chargers	0.29	Chargers	0.29

Carried by One Guy: Arian Foster, 29.60 points (29.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Demaryius Thomas scored 25.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–4	3.636	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Miller	2–4	2.545	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Adam	5–1	3.545	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Horgan	6–0	3.545	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 0
Demich	2–4	2.818	-3.5	-0.318	1 / 2
Fischer	6–0	4.364	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Josh	4–2	4.000	-3.5	-0.318	0 / 1
Big Hut	2–4	3.455	-5.0	-0.455	0 / 2
Kev	1–5	1.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	4–2	3.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Martin	2–4	1.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–6	1.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0

2014 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Krajcik lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6