2014 week 16 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 16 – 22, 2014

j-mart

92.00

Martin

88.90

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.10 points left. Optimal 96.10 vs. actual 92.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	0.36	Andrew Luck	0.36
WR	Steve Smith	7.40	Steve Smith	7.40
WR	Marques Colston	11.00	Marques Colston	11.00
WR	Pierre Garcon	8.10	Pierre Garcon	8.10
RB	Shane Vereen	5.50	Eddie Lacy	16.90
RB	Eddie Lacy	16.90	Branden Oliver	9.60
TE	Owen Daniels	1.20	Owen Daniels	1.20
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	12.30	Latavius Murray	12.30
K	Randy Bullock	17.00	Randy Bullock	17.00
DEF	Texans	12.24	Texans	12.24

Carried by One Guy: Randy Bullock, 17.00 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.50 points left. Optimal 90.40 vs. actual 88.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	10.28	Tom Brady	10.28
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	6.30	DeAndre Hopkins	6.30
WR	Kelvin Benjamin	7.20	Kelvin Benjamin	7.20
WR	Jordan Matthews	7.30	Jordan Matthews	7.30
RB	Jonathan Stewart	21.90	Jonathan Stewart	21.90
RB	Kerwynn Williams	0.40	Mike Tolbert	1.90
TE	Travis Kelce	5.10	Travis Kelce	5.10
W/R/T	DeSean Jackson	16.60	DeSean Jackson	16.60
K	Connor Barth	4.00	Connor Barth	4.00
DEF	Panthers	9.82	Panthers	9.82

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Stewart, 21.90 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Randy Bullock scored 17.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Consolation

Dec 16 – 22, 2014

Miller

84.42

Demich

83.45

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.54 points left. Optimal 110.96 vs. actual 84.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	12.40	Cam Newton	22.34
WR	Calvin Johnson	15.30	Martavis Bryant	5.80
WR	Keenan Allen	0.00	Calvin Johnson	15.30
WR	Martavis Bryant	5.80	Percy Harvin	6.88
RB	Fred Jackson	14.80	Le'Veon Bell	13.70
RB	Le'Veon Bell	13.70	Fred Jackson	14.80
TE	Kyle Rudolph	0.00	Kyle Rudolph	0.00
W/R/T	Percy Harvin	6.88	Giovani Bernard	16.60
K	Phil Dawson	5.00	Phil Dawson	5.00
DEF	Patriots	10.54	Patriots	10.54

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Johnson, 15.30 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.10 points left. Optimal 109.55 vs. actual 83.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	14.44	Peyton Manning	14.44
WR	Golden Tate	8.70	Golden Tate	8.70
WR	A.J. Green	0.00	Andre Holmes	8.80
WR	Jarvis Landry	6.00	Jarvis Landry	6.00
RB	Mark Ingram II	13.00	Mark Ingram II	13.00
RB	Tre Mason	14.80	Tre Mason	14.80
TE	Jason Witten	18.50	Jason Witten	18.50
W/R/T	Donte Moncrief	1.50	Reggie Bush	18.80
K	Dan Bailey	6.00	Dan Bailey	6.00
DEF	Rams	0.51	Rams	0.51

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jason Witten, 18.50 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Calvin Johnson scored 15.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 16 – 22, 2014

Adam

136.03

Fischer

127.47

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.72 points left. Optimal 174.75 vs. actual 136.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	5.92	Eli Manning	29.34
WR	Jordy Nelson	23.80	Randall Cobb	20.64
WR	Randall Cobb	20.64	Odell Beckham Jr.	32.80
WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	32.80	Jordy Nelson	23.80
RB	Jamaal Charles	8.20	Lamar Miller	23.50
RB	C.J. Anderson	23.80	C.J. Anderson	23.80
TE	Martellus Bennett	0.50	Martellus Bennett	0.50
W/R/T	Joique Bell	15.70	Joique Bell	15.70
K	Justin Tucker	1.00	Justin Tucker	1.00
DEF	Ravens	3.67	Ravens	3.67

Carried by One Guy: Odell Beckham Jr., 32.80 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.44 points left. Optimal 154.91 vs. actual 127.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	27.52	Russell Wilson	38.36
WR	Antonio Brown	16.70	Antonio Brown	16.70
WR	Alshon Jeffery	16.20	Alshon Jeffery	16.20
WR	Mike Evans	6.90	Kenny Britt	16.80
RB	Steven Jackson	2.80	Jonas Gray	6.50
RB	LeSean McCoy	19.10	LeSean McCoy	19.10
TE	Greg Olsen	2.60	Coby Fleener	5.60
W/R/T	Danny Amendola	14.38	Danny Amendola	14.38
K	Dan Carpenter	8.00	Dan Carpenter	8.00
DEF	Seahawks	13.27	Seahawks	13.27

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tony Romo, 27.52 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Odell Beckham Jr. scored 32.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 16 – 22, 2014

Horgan

118.08

Joe Shore

102.37

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.80 points left. Optimal 122.88 vs. actual 118.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	19.58	Matt Ryan	19.58
WR	Demaryius Thomas	17.00	Demaryius Thomas	17.00
WR	Marquess Wilson	10.10	Kendall Wright	9.30
WR	Marqise Lee	8.50	Marquess Wilson	10.10
RB	Marshawn Lynch	25.30	Isaiah Crowell	5.50
RB	Isaiah Crowell	5.50	Marshawn Lynch	25.30
TE	Rob Gronkowski	12.10	Rob Gronkowski	12.10
W/R/T	Dan Herron	5.50	Andre Johnson	9.50
K	Mason Crosby	8.00	Mason Crosby	8.00
DEF	Lions	6.50	Lions	6.50

Carried by One Guy: Marshawn Lynch, 25.30 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.50 points left. Optimal 118.87 vs. actual 102.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	16.72	Aaron Rodgers	16.72
WR	Vincent Jackson	7.50	Kenny Stills	9.80
WR	Jeremy Maclin	8.20	Vincent Jackson	7.50
WR	T.Y. Hilton	0.00	Jeremy Maclin	8.20
RB	Matt Forte	18.50	Stepfan Taylor	5.40
RB	Justin Forsett	5.20	Matt Forte	18.50
TE	Antonio Gates	24.70	Antonio Gates	24.70
W/R/T	Kenny Stills	9.80	Jordan Cameron	16.30
K	Cody Parkey	5.00	Cody Parkey	5.00
DEF	Eagles	6.75	Eagles	6.75

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Gates, 24.70 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Marshawn Lynch scored 25.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

2014 week 16 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Consolation

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Playoff

Adam lineup

Fischer lineup

Playoff

Horgan lineup

Joe Shore lineup