2013 season ledger
Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.
Actual and all-play standings
All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.
| Manager | W–L | PF | Expected wins | Luck points | Luck in wins | Lucky | Unlucky | All-play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller | 9–4 | 1600.61 | 7.545 | +5.0 | +0.455 | 4 | 2 | 58.0% |
| Joe Shore | 9–4 | 1580.70 | 7.636 | -1.0 | -0.091 | 1 | 1 | 58.7% |
| j-mart | 8–5 | 1617.11 | 7.727 | -2.0 | -0.182 | 1 | 1 | 59.4% |
| Demich | 8–5 | 1580.15 | 6.364 | +6.5 | +0.591 | 3 | 2 | 49.0% |
| Horgan | 8–5 | 1482.95 | 6.636 | +1.0 | +0.091 | 1 | 1 | 51.0% |
| Adam | 7–6 | 1587.96 | 6.727 | +1.5 | +0.136 | 2 | 1 | 51.7% |
| Kev | 7–6 | 1570.64 | 7.091 | -0.5 | -0.045 | 0 | 1 | 54.5% |
| Big Hut | 7–6 | 1534.62 | 6.727 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 51.7% |
| The Heisenburglers | 6–7 | 1526.63 | 6.182 | -4.0 | -0.364 | 2 | 2 | 47.6% |
| Josh | 4–9 | 1472.53 | 5.545 | -2.0 | -0.182 | 1 | 1 | 42.7% |
| Aaron's Got a Gun | 3–10 | 1428.77 | 5.182 | -6.0 | -0.545 | 2 | 4 | 39.9% |
| Fischer | 2–11 | 1390.36 | 4.636 | -2.5 | -0.227 | 0 | 1 | 35.7% |
All-play order
- j-mart — 7.727 expected wins; 85–58–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Joe Shore — 7.636 expected wins; 84–59–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Miller — 7.545 expected wins; 83–60–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Kev — 7.091 expected wins; 78–65–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Adam — 6.727 expected wins; 74–69–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Big Hut — 6.727 expected wins; 74–69–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Horgan — 6.636 expected wins; 73–70–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Demich — 6.364 expected wins; 70–73–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- The Heisenburglers — 6.182 expected wins; 68–75–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Josh — 5.545 expected wins; 61–82–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Aaron's Got a Gun — 5.182 expected wins; 57–86–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Fischer — 4.636 expected wins; 51–92–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Latest weekly receipts
All exact ties share the award.
Robbery of the Week
- The HeisenburglersRank 3, 148.75 points, lost by 0.86. Open matchup
Get Out of Jail Free
- MillerRank 9, 117.25 points, won by 9.41. Open matchup
Cumulative luck in wins
Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 0.00 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 |
| Demich | 0.00 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.05 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.59 | +0.59 |
| Josh | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 |
| Aaron's Got a Gun | -0.23 | +0.09 | +0.09 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.55 | -0.55 | -0.68 | -0.68 | -0.68 | -0.68 | -0.55 | -0.55 |
| The Heisenburglers | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.18 | +0.18 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.36 |
| Kev | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 |
| Joe Shore | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| Fischer | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.23 | -0.23 |
| Adam | +0.14 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 |
| Horgan | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 |
| Big Hut | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miller | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.64 | +0.64 | +0.64 | +0.32 | +0.55 | +0.55 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.45 |
Schedule Swap
Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.
| Source team | Best owner | Record | Worst owner | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Big Hut | 10–3 (+2.0) | Fischer | 3–10 (-5.0) |
| Demich | j-mart | 10–3 (+2.0) | Fischer | 3–10 (-5.0) |
| Josh | j-mart | 7–6 (+3.0) | Horgan | 4–9 (0.0) |
| Aaron's Got a Gun | j-mart | 7–6 (+4.0) | Aaron's Got a Gun | 3–10 (0.0) |
| The Heisenburglers | Big Hut | 10–3 (+4.0) | Fischer | 2–11 (-4.0) |
| Kev | Big Hut | 9–4 (+2.0) | Fischer | 3–10 (-4.0) |
| Joe Shore | Big Hut | 11–2 (+2.0) | Fischer | 3–10 (-6.0) |
| Fischer | Demich | 7–6 (+5.0) | Aaron's Got a Gun | 2–11 (0.0) |
| Adam | j-mart | 9–4 (+2.0) | Fischer | 3–10 (-4.0) |
| Horgan | j-mart | 9–4 (+1.0) | Fischer | 2–11 (-6.0) |
| Big Hut | j-mart | 9–4 (+2.0) | Fischer | 4–9 (-3.0) |
| Miller | Joe Shore | 11–2 (+2.0) | Fischer | 3–10 (-6.0) |
Everybody's Super Bowl
Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.
| Manager | Mean excess | Meetings | Largest receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | -9.69 pts | 13 | Josh: +41.32 pts |
| Demich | -8.44 pts | 13 | Aaron's Got a Gun: +37.25 pts |
| Josh | +4.24 pts | 13 | Big Hut: +45.62 pts |
| Aaron's Got a Gun | +14.58 pts | 13 | Demich: +64.52 pts |
| The Heisenburglers | -5.71 pts | 13 | Adam: +48.66 pts |
| Kev | +2.69 pts | 13 | Fischer: +27.46 pts |
| Joe Shore | -4.49 pts | 13 | Fischer: +24.80 pts |
| Fischer | +18.79 pts | 13 | The Heisenburglers: +40.80 pts |
| Adam | +1.27 pts | 13 | j-mart: +34.52 pts |
| Horgan | -1.68 pts | 13 | The Heisenburglers: +33.93 pts |
| Big Hut | -8.80 pts | 13 | Miller: +8.82 pts |
| Miller | -2.74 pts | 13 | Kev: +27.12 pts |
Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row
Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.
| Manager | Difficulty | Games | PA/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 33.8% | 13 | 108.27 |
| Demich | 37.7% | 13 | 110.61 |
| Josh | 56.2% | 13 | 122.57 |
| Aaron's Got a Gun | 66.9% | 13 | 131.57 |
| The Heisenburglers | 38.5% | 13 | 112.58 |
| Kev | 56.9% | 13 | 119.53 |
| Joe Shore | 40.0% | 13 | 112.91 |
| Fischer | 82.3% | 13 | 136.48 |
| Adam | 50.8% | 13 | 118.82 |
| Horgan | 53.1% | 13 | 115.87 |
| Big Hut | 34.6% | 13 | 108.68 |
| Miller | 49.2% | 13 | 115.42 |
Heart Attack Club
A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.
| Manager | Close record | Games | Win-credit rate | Closest win | Closest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 3.00 | None |
| Demich | 3–1 | 4 | 75.0% | 0.96 | 2.64 |
| Josh | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.82 | None |
| Aaron's Got a Gun | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 1.95 | 0.24 |
| The Heisenburglers | 0–4 | 4 | 0.0% | None | 0.86 |
| Kev | 1–3 | 4 | 25.0% | 3.70 | 1.57 |
| Joe Shore | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Fischer | 2–0 | 2 | 100.0% | 1.57 | None |
| Adam | 2–2 | 4 | 50.0% | 3.89 | 1.14 |
| Horgan | 4–0 | 4 | 100.0% | 0.24 | None |
| Big Hut | 0–3 | 3 | 0.0% | None | 0.96 |
| Miller | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 4.83 |
Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent
Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.
| Manager | Actual | All-play | Gap | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 61.5% | 59.4% | +2.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Demich | 61.5% | 49.0% | +12.6 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Josh | 30.8% | 42.7% | -11.9 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Aaron's Got a Gun | 23.1% | 39.9% | -16.8 pp | Wasted Talent |
| The Heisenburglers | 46.2% | 47.6% | -1.4 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Kev | 53.8% | 54.5% | -0.7 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Joe Shore | 69.2% | 58.7% | +10.5 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Fischer | 15.4% | 35.7% | -20.3 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Adam | 53.8% | 51.7% | +2.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Horgan | 61.5% | 51.0% | +10.5 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Big Hut | 53.8% | 51.7% | +2.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Miller | 69.2% | 58.0% | +11.2 pp | Paper Tiger |
The Roller Coaster
Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.
| Manager | Volatility | Mean percentile | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 35.2 pp | 59.4% | 13 |
| Demich | 31.6 pp | 49.0% | 13 |
| Josh | 36.6 pp | 42.7% | 13 |
| Aaron's Got a Gun | 28.2 pp | 39.9% | 13 |
| The Heisenburglers | 28.6 pp | 47.6% | 13 |
| Kev | 29.2 pp | 54.5% | 13 |
| Joe Shore | 33.0 pp | 58.7% | 13 |
| Fischer | 23.5 pp | 35.7% | 13 |
| Adam | 27.7 pp | 51.7% | 13 |
| Horgan | 31.4 pp | 51.0% | 13 |
| Big Hut | 30.5 pp | 51.7% | 13 |
| Miller | 28.6 pp | 58.0% | 13 |
Nemesis / Has Their Number
Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.
| Manager | Nemesis | Record | Has Their Number | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Demich | 0–2 | Adam | 1–0 |
| Demich | Miller | 0–2 | j-mart | 2–0 |
| Josh | Big Hut | 0–2 | Aaron's Got a Gun | 1–0 |
| Aaron's Got a Gun | Adam | 0–1 | Fischer | 1–0 |
| The Heisenburglers | Adam | 0–2 | Fischer | 1–0 |
| Kev | j-mart | 0–1 | Horgan | 1–0 |
| Joe Shore | Miller | 0–2 | Fischer | 2–0 |
| Fischer | Joe Shore | 0–2 | Demich | 1–0 |
| Adam | j-mart | 0–1 | The Heisenburglers | 2–0 |
| Horgan | Kev | 0–1 | j-mart | 1–0 |
| Big Hut | Joe Shore | 0–1 | Josh | 2–0 |
| Miller | j-mart | 0–1 | Joe Shore | 2–0 |
Archived player statistics
Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.
Tinker Failures
League-wide superlative suppressed because coverage is incomplete. Available team-week receipts remain listed.
| Manager | Points left | Avoidable losses | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 199.00 | 1 | |
| Demich | 307.27 | 5 | |
| Josh | 180.00 | 2 | |
| Aaron's Got a Gun | 211.82 | 3 | |
| The Heisenburglers | 278.68 | 5 | |
| Kev | 170.80 | 4 | |
| Joe Shore | 277.13 | 2 | |
| Fischer | 228.54 | 4 | |
| Adam | 228.80 | 4 | |
| Horgan | 239.33 | 2 | |
| Big Hut | 217.81 | 3 | |
| Miller | 236.88 | 2 |
Carried by One Guy
| Manager | Leading player | Share | Positive starter points | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Calvin Johnson | 15.5% | 1617.11 | 13 weeks |
| Demich | Peyton Manning | 20.4% | 1580.15 | 13 weeks
|
| Josh | Matt Ryan | 13.0% | 1475.82 | 13 weeks |
| Aaron's Got a Gun | Tony Romo | 14.3% | 1429.17 | 13 weeks |
| The Heisenburglers | Robert Griffin III | 12.6% | 1526.63 | 13 weeks
|
| Kev | Drew Brees | 17.5% | 1570.64 | 13 weeks
|
| Joe Shore | Jimmy Graham | 13.7% | 1581.40 | |
| Fischer | Matthew Stafford | 14.0% | 1390.96 | 13 weeks
|
| Adam | Cam Newton | 12.6% | 1590.33 | |
| Horgan | Andre Johnson | 13.0% | 1484.62 | |
| Big Hut | Russell Wilson | 15.0% | 1540.03 | |
| Miller | Jamaal Charles | 15.0% | 1602.71 | 13 weeks
|
Opponent's Final Boss
| Manager | Leading opponent | Damage | Leader encounters | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Peyton Manning | 164.00 | 2 | |
| Demich | Alshon Jeffery | 228.52 | 1 | |
| Josh | Marshawn Lynch | 155.89 | 1 | |
| Aaron's Got a Gun | Colin Kaepernick | 243.67 | 1 | |
| The Heisenburglers | Josh Gordon | 411.25 | 1 | |
| Kev | Adrian Peterson | 268.87 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | Andrew Luck | 35.64 | 2 | |
| Fischer | Demaryius Thomas | 109.01 | 2 | |
| Adam | Chiefs | 269.97 | 1 | |
| Horgan | Kendall Wright | 55.74 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | Marshawn Lynch | 331.20 | 1 | |
| Miller | Philip Rivers | 185.19 | 2 |
Postseason scorecards
Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.