2013 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2013

j-mart

139.77

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Josh

151.41

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.80 points left. Optimal 146.57 vs. actual 139.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	36.90	Aaron Rodgers	36.90
WR	Steve Smith	7.70	A.J. Green	7.10
WR	Calvin Johnson	28.60	Steve Smith	7.70
WR	A.J. Green	7.10	Calvin Johnson	28.60
RB	Chris Ivory	5.20	Bernard Pierce	12.00
RB	Giovani Bernard	19.00	Giovani Bernard	19.00
TE	Vernon Davis	3.50	Vernon Davis	3.50
W/R	Eric Decker	13.20	Eric Decker	13.20
K	Blair Walsh	9.00	Blair Walsh	9.00
DEF	Cowboys	9.57	Cowboys	9.57

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Rodgers, 36.90 points (26.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DeSean Jackson scored 31.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 151.41 vs. actual 151.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	24.96	Matt Ryan	24.96
WR	DeSean Jackson	31.80	Randall Cobb	25.50
WR	Mike Wallace	24.00	DeSean Jackson	31.80
WR	Randall Cobb	25.50	Mike Wallace	24.00
RB	Doug Martin	16.40	Doug Martin	16.40
RB	David Wilson	5.12	David Wilson	5.12
TE	Brandon Myers	10.40	Brandon Myers	10.40
W/R	Vincent Brown	4.60	Vincent Brown	4.60
K	Randy Bullock	2.00	Randy Bullock	2.00
DEF	Browns	6.63	Browns	6.63

Carried by One Guy: DeSean Jackson, 31.80 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2013

Kev

115.26

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Adam

119.67

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.80 points left. Optimal 123.06 vs. actual 115.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	14.88	Drew Brees	14.88
WR	Jordy Nelson	20.10	Cecil Shorts	13.30
WR	Cecil Shorts	13.30	Tavon Austin	20.62
WR	Tavon Austin	20.62	Jordy Nelson	20.10
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	3.30	Trent Richardson	10.40
RB	Trent Richardson	10.40	Daryl Richardson	10.50
TE	Jared Cook	1.50	Jared Cook	1.50
W/R	Daryl Richardson	10.50	Robert Woods	11.10
K	Josh Brown	11.00	Josh Brown	11.00
DEF	Chiefs	9.66	Chiefs	9.66

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Tavon Austin, 20.62 points (17.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: T.Y. Hilton scored 17.54; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.46 points left. Optimal 148.13 vs. actual 119.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	16.66	Cam Newton	16.66
WR	Demaryius Thomas	7.70	T.Y. Hilton	17.54
WR	Antonio Brown	9.44	Chris Givens	15.00
WR	T.Y. Hilton	17.54	Eddie Royal	30.60
RB	Darren Sproles	9.62	C.J. Spiller	15.20
RB	C.J. Spiller	15.20	Darren Sproles	9.62
TE	Julius Thomas	13.70	Julius Thomas	13.70
W/R	Lamar Miller	14.50	Lamar Miller	14.50
K	Matt Prater	13.00	Matt Prater	13.00
DEF	Rams	2.31	Rams	2.31

Carried by One Guy: T.Y. Hilton, 17.54 points (14.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2013

Joe Shore

143.82

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

105.15

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.09 points left. Optimal 159.91 vs. actual 143.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	11.20	Jay Cutler	18.58
WR	Dwayne Bowe	13.60	Dez Bryant	26.60
WR	Dez Bryant	26.60	Emmanuel Sanders	10.30
WR	Kenbrell Thompkins	5.70	Dwayne Bowe	13.60
RB	DeAngelo Williams	8.50	Joique Bell	9.70
RB	LeSean McCoy	21.20	LeSean McCoy	21.20
TE	Jimmy Graham	30.90	Jimmy Graham	30.90
W/R	Ben Tate	11.60	Ben Tate	11.60
K	Greg Zuerlein	5.00	Greg Zuerlein	5.00
DEF	49ers	9.52	Ravens	12.43

Carried by One Guy: Jimmy Graham, 30.90 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 43.96 points left. Optimal 149.11 vs. actual 105.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	12.48	E.J. Manuel	15.14
WR	Marques Colston	8.30	DeAndre Hopkins	23.20
WR	Hakeem Nicks	10.30	Marlon Brown	12.50
WR	Julian Edelman	16.14	Julian Edelman	16.14
RB	Adrian Peterson	11.20	Fred Jackson	15.00
RB	Stevan Ridley	4.00	Adrian Peterson	11.20
TE	Kyle Rudolph	11.70	Kyle Rudolph	11.70
W/R	DeMarco Murray	9.90	Stevie Johnson	23.10
K	Sebastian Janikowski	12.00	Sebastian Janikowski	12.00
DEF	Texans	9.13	Texans	9.13

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Julian Edelman, 16.14 points (15.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2013

The Heisenburglers

125.35

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

90.45

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.32 points left. Optimal 140.67 vs. actual 125.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	24.90	Michael Vick	36.32
WR	Wes Welker	11.40	Rod Streater	5.70
WR	Michael Floyd	3.70	Wes Welker	11.40
WR	Rod Streater	5.70	Jerome Simpson	5.90
RB	Chris Johnson	10.20	Alfred Morris	15.00
RB	Alfred Morris	15.00	Chris Johnson	10.20
TE	Antonio Gates	16.40	Antonio Gates	16.40
W/R	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	8.50	Da'Rel Scott	10.20
K	Matt Bryant	7.00	Matt Bryant	7.00
DEF	Seahawks	22.55	Seahawks	22.55

Carried by One Guy: Robert Griffin III, 24.90 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 43.10 points left. Optimal 133.55 vs. actual 90.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	5.78	Colin Kaepernick	5.78
WR	Reggie Wayne	7.10	Reggie Wayne	7.10
WR	Andre Johnson	11.60	Andre Johnson	11.60
WR	Greg Jennings	10.90	Greg Jennings	10.90
RB	Frank Gore	3.50	James Starks	26.80
RB	Ray Rice	4.00	Bilal Powell	14.00
TE	Jermichael Finley	15.50	Jermichael Finley	15.50
W/R	Ryan Mathews	6.10	Ahmad Bradshaw	15.90
K	Stephen Hauschka	9.00	Stephen Hauschka	9.00
DEF	Patriots	16.97	Patriots	16.97

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Patriots, 16.97 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2013

Aaron's Got a Gun

100.87

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Big Hut

98.92

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.00 points left. Optimal 118.87 vs. actual 100.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	14.22	Tony Romo	14.22
WR	Anquan Boldin	1.20	Kendall Wright	14.90
WR	Roddy White	3.60	Vincent Jackson	10.20
WR	Vincent Jackson	10.20	Donnie Avery	5.00
RB	Steven Jackson	7.30	Steven Jackson	7.30
RB	Marshawn Lynch	33.00	Marshawn Lynch	33.00
TE	Tony Gonzalez	5.30	Tony Gonzalez	5.30
W/R	Golden Tate	3.50	Brandon Jacobs	6.40
K	Robbie Gould	6.00	Robbie Gould	6.00
DEF	Broncos	16.55	Broncos	16.55

Carried by One Guy: Marshawn Lynch, 33.00 points (32.7% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.82 points left. Optimal 105.74 vs. actual 98.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	10.98	Andy Dalton	16.20
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	4.30	Victor Cruz	17.80
WR	Pierre Garcon	26.30	Larry Fitzgerald	4.30
WR	Victor Cruz	17.80	Pierre Garcon	26.30
RB	Reggie Bush	8.40	Reggie Bush	8.40
RB	Matt Forte	19.10	Matt Forte	19.10
TE	Kellen Winslow	3.10	Brandon Pettigrew	4.70
W/R	Miles Austin	4.60	Miles Austin	4.60
K	Stephen Gostkowski	6.00	Stephen Gostkowski	6.00
DEF	Giants	-1.66	Giants	-1.66

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Pierre Garcon, 26.30 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Marshawn Lynch scored 33.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2013

Demich

128.32

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Miller

140.47

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.30 points left. Optimal 150.62 vs. actual 128.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	21.98	Peyton Manning	21.98
WR	Nate Burleson	7.20	Julio Jones	31.70
WR	Julio Jones	31.70	Torrey Smith	12.00
WR	Torrey Smith	12.00	Nate Burleson	7.20
RB	Rashard Mendenhall	16.40	Rashard Mendenhall	16.40
RB	Arian Foster	17.00	Arian Foster	17.00
TE	Jason Witten	2.70	Jason Witten	2.70
W/R	Mike Williams	1.90	Knowshon Moreno	24.20
K	Mason Crosby	7.00	Mason Crosby	7.00
DEF	Bengals	10.44	Bengals	10.44

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Julio Jones, 31.70 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: James Jones scored 23.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.90 points left. Optimal 165.37 vs. actual 140.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	20.64	Andrew Luck	20.64
WR	Brandon Marshall	22.80	Malcom Floyd	14.70
WR	James Jones	23.30	Brandon Marshall	22.80
WR	Andre Roberts	5.10	James Jones	23.30
RB	Darren McFadden	17.70	Darren McFadden	17.70
RB	Jamaal Charles	20.30	Jamaal Charles	20.30
TE	Jordan Cameron	12.00	Greg Olsen	17.90
W/R	Eddie Lacy	1.00	Danny Woodhead	10.40
K	Phil Dawson	2.00	Phil Dawson	2.00
DEF	Bears	15.63	Bears	15.63

Carried by One Guy: James Jones, 23.30 points (16.6% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–2	1.182	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Demich	1–1	1.545	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Josh	1–1	1.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Aaron's Got a Gun	1–1	0.909	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
The Heisenburglers	1–1	0.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	0–2	0.909	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Joe Shore	1–1	0.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–1	0.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	2–0	0.818	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
Horgan	1–1	0.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–1	1.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	2–0	1.000	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2013 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

The Heisenburglers lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Miller lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2