2013 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2013

j-mart

128.30

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

97.10

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.00 points left. Optimal 158.30 vs. actual 128.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	18.70	Aaron Rodgers	18.70
WR	Steve Smith	10.60	Rueben Randle	15.00
WR	Calvin Johnson	4.00	Keenan Allen	23.20
WR	Eric Decker	7.50	Kenny Stills	13.90
RB	Trent Richardson	5.80	Trent Richardson	5.80
RB	Giovani Bernard	19.00	Giovani Bernard	19.00
TE	Vernon Davis	36.00	Vernon Davis	36.00
W/R	Josh Gordon	18.10	Josh Gordon	18.10
K	Justin Tucker	4.00	Justin Tucker	4.00
DEF	Cardinals	4.60	Cardinals	4.60

Carried by One Guy: Vernon Davis, 36.00 points (28.1% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.52 points left. Optimal 130.62 vs. actual 97.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	14.36	Jay Cutler	20.48
WR	Dwayne Bowe	6.10	Emmanuel Sanders	14.50
WR	Dez Bryant	6.10	Denarius Moore	16.70
WR	Denarius Moore	16.70	Kenbrell Thompkins	12.00
RB	Fred Jackson	6.80	Andre Ellington	17.70
RB	LeSean McCoy	18.10	LeSean McCoy	18.10
TE	Jimmy Graham	0.00	Jimmy Graham	0.00
W/R	Kenbrell Thompkins	12.00	DeAngelo Williams	14.20
K	Blair Walsh	3.00	Blair Walsh	3.00
DEF	49ers	13.94	49ers	13.94

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: LeSean McCoy, 18.10 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Vernon Davis scored 36.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2013

Demich

98.37

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Kev

95.07

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.10 points left. Optimal 116.47 vs. actual 98.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	13.10	Peyton Manning	13.10
WR	Torrey Smith	1.70	Leonard Hankerson	4.60
WR	Leonard Hankerson	4.60	Jarrett Boykin	4.80
WR	Ryan Broyles	0.00	Nate Washington	2.00
RB	Knowshon Moreno	31.90	Knowshon Moreno	31.90
RB	Arian Foster	23.80	Arian Foster	23.80
TE	Jason Witten	4.20	Jason Witten	4.20
W/R	Rashard Mendenhall	4.70	Mike Tolbert	17.70
K	Alex Henery	6.00	Alex Henery	6.00
DEF	Bengals	8.37	Bengals	8.37

Carried by One Guy: Knowshon Moreno, 31.90 points (32.4% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.60 points left. Optimal 111.67 vs. actual 95.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	16.54	Drew Brees	16.54
WR	Jordy Nelson	21.30	A.J. Green	21.30
WR	A.J. Green	21.30	Jacoby Jones	14.24
WR	Cecil Shorts	0.00	Jordy Nelson	21.30
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	14.40	Le'Veon Bell	7.10
RB	Le'Veon Bell	7.10	Maurice Jones-Drew	14.40
TE	Garrett Graham	3.50	Garrett Graham	3.50
W/R	Robert Woods	1.90	Felix Jones	4.26
K	Garrett Hartley	8.00	Garrett Hartley	8.00
DEF	Texans	1.03	Texans	1.03

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jordy Nelson, 21.30 points (22.4% of positive starter points); A.J. Green, 21.30 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Knowshon Moreno scored 31.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2013

Josh

104.16

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

The Heisenburglers

102.34

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.40 points left. Optimal 123.56 vs. actual 104.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Flacco	22.28	Joe Flacco	22.28
WR	DeSean Jackson	21.40	Alshon Jeffery	4.70
WR	Alshon Jeffery	4.70	T.Y. Hilton	7.00
WR	T.Y. Hilton	7.00	DeSean Jackson	21.40
RB	Darren Sproles	11.52	Doug Martin	11.10
RB	Doug Martin	11.10	Darren Sproles	11.52
TE	Jeff Cumberland	7.90	Jeff Cumberland	7.90
W/R	Vincent Brown	4.10	Stevan Ridley	23.50
K	Dan Bailey	7.00	Dan Bailey	7.00
DEF	Jets	7.16	Jets	7.16

Carried by One Guy: Joe Flacco, 22.28 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.86 points left. Optimal 124.20 vs. actual 102.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	13.54	Robert Griffin III	13.54
WR	Wes Welker	15.30	Michael Floyd	12.90
WR	Danny Amendola	1.10	Wes Welker	15.30
WR	Michael Floyd	12.90	Ted Ginn Jr.	3.96
RB	Chris Johnson	6.90	Alfred Morris	14.10
RB	Alfred Morris	14.10	Brandon Jacobs	25.90
TE	Antonio Gates	4.80	Antonio Gates	4.80
W/R	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	8.60	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	8.60
K	Adam Vinatieri	13.00	Adam Vinatieri	13.00
DEF	Seahawks	12.10	Seahawks	12.10

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Wes Welker, 15.30 points (15.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Joe Flacco scored 22.28; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2013

Adam

105.94

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Horgan

107.08

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.40 points left. Optimal 128.34 vs. actual 105.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	13.38	Cam Newton	30.68
WR	Demaryius Thomas	9.30	Demaryius Thomas	9.30
WR	Antonio Brown	13.92	Antonio Brown	13.92
WR	Randall Cobb	7.30	Randall Cobb	7.30
RB	C.J. Spiller	7.60	C.J. Spiller	7.60
RB	Ronnie Hillman	4.60	Roy Helu	9.70
TE	Julius Thomas	10.20	Julius Thomas	10.20
W/R	Jerome Simpson	5.00	Jerome Simpson	5.00
K	Matt Prater	5.00	Matt Prater	5.00
DEF	Rams	29.64	Rams	29.64

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Rams, 29.64 points (28.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Chiefs scored 25.32; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.72 points left. Optimal 124.80 vs. actual 107.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	7.56	Colin Kaepernick	15.88
WR	Reggie Wayne	11.30	Terrance Williams	9.70
WR	Andre Johnson	12.30	Reggie Wayne	11.30
WR	Greg Jennings	6.40	Andre Johnson	12.30
RB	Frank Gore	12.10	Ryan Mathews	12.20
RB	Ray Rice	6.40	Frank Gore	12.10
TE	Jermichael Finley	9.00	Jermichael Finley	9.00
W/R	Terrance Williams	9.70	Zac Stacy	10.00
K	Stephen Hauschka	7.00	Stephen Hauschka	7.00
DEF	Chiefs	25.32	Chiefs	25.32

Carried by One Guy: Chiefs, 25.32 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2013

Fischer

72.25

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

144.22

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.78 points left. Optimal 93.03 vs. actual 72.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	24.52	Matthew Stafford	24.52
WR	Marques Colston	1.60	Marlon Brown	8.40
WR	Hakeem Nicks	9.00	Hakeem Nicks	9.00
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	4.20	Julian Edelman	8.38
RB	Adrian Peterson	9.80	DeMarco Murray	12.00
RB	DeMarco Murray	12.00	Adrian Peterson	9.80
TE	Sean McGrath	0.00	Martellus Bennett	9.80
W/R	Willis McGahee	4.40	Willis McGahee	4.40
K	Sebastian Janikowski	1.00	Sebastian Janikowski	1.00
DEF	Saints	5.73	Saints	5.73

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 24.52 points (33.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.20 points left. Optimal 182.42 vs. actual 144.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	16.38	Andy Dalton	27.18
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	21.10	Brandon LaFell	21.60
WR	Pierre Garcon	9.90	Larry Fitzgerald	21.10
WR	Victor Cruz	8.80	Pierre Garcon	9.90
RB	Reggie Bush	22.00	Reggie Bush	22.00
RB	Matt Forte	14.10	Matt Forte	14.10
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	5.60	Kyle Rudolph	20.20
W/R	Justin Blackmon	28.00	Justin Blackmon	28.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00
DEF	Colts	5.34	Colts	5.34

Carried by One Guy: Justin Blackmon, 28.00 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2013

Aaron's Got a Gun

118.11

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Miller

129.21

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.80 points left. Optimal 136.91 vs. actual 118.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	8.80	Tony Romo	8.80
WR	Anquan Boldin	4.30	Kris Durham	12.30
WR	Vincent Jackson	29.90	Kendall Wright	9.40
WR	Golden Tate	6.10	Vincent Jackson	29.90
RB	Marshawn Lynch	29.50	Bilal Powell	6.50
RB	Bilal Powell	6.50	Marshawn Lynch	29.50
TE	Heath Miller	11.40	Heath Miller	11.40
W/R	Donnie Avery	-0.40	Kendall Hunter	7.10
K	Robbie Gould	12.00	Robbie Gould	12.00
DEF	Broncos	10.01	Broncos	10.01

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Vincent Jackson, 29.90 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jamaal Charles scored 27.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.70 points left. Optimal 139.91 vs. actual 129.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	7.98	Sam Bradford	17.08
WR	Brandon Marshall	25.20	Doug Baldwin	6.80
WR	James Jones	1.50	Brandon Marshall	25.20
WR	Doug Baldwin	6.80	Davone Bess	3.10
RB	Jamaal Charles	27.30	Eddie Lacy	15.00
RB	Eddie Lacy	15.00	Jamaal Charles	27.30
TE	Jordan Cameron	8.90	Jordan Cameron	8.90
W/R	Danny Woodhead	10.80	Danny Woodhead	10.80
K	Phil Dawson	12.00	Phil Dawson	12.00
DEF	Bears	13.73	Bears	13.73

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Charles, 27.30 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–3	3.818	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Demich	5–1	4.455	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Josh	3–3	2.818	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Aaron's Got a Gun	1–5	3.000	-6.0	-0.545	1 / 3
The Heisenburglers	3–3	2.091	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Kev	1–5	2.000	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Joe Shore	4–2	3.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–5	2.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	4–2	3.000	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Horgan	3–3	2.818	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Big Hut	3–3	3.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	5–1	3.455	+7.0	+0.636	2 / 0

2013 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

The Heisenburglers lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Miller lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6