2013 week 9 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2013

j-mart

100.84

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

130.36

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.00 points left. Optimal 103.84 vs. actual 100.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	1.98	Aaron Rodgers	1.98
WR	Steve Smith	7.20	Josh Gordon	6.90
WR	Keenan Allen	24.80	Keenan Allen	24.80
WR	Kenny Stills	5.00	Steve Smith	7.20
RB	Trent Richardson	6.30	Trent Richardson	6.30
RB	Giovani Bernard	24.40	Giovani Bernard	24.40
TE	Scott Chandler	4.10	Scott Chandler	4.10
W/R	Josh Gordon	6.90	Jonathan Stewart	8.00
K	Nick Folk	15.00	Nick Folk	15.00
DEF	Ravens	5.16	Ravens	5.16

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 24.80 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Andre Johnson scored 47.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.82 points left. Optimal 142.18 vs. actual 130.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	21.04	Philip Rivers	21.04
WR	Andre Johnson	47.40	Terrance Williams	4.30
WR	Greg Jennings	8.60	Andre Johnson	47.40
WR	Terrance Williams	4.30	Greg Jennings	8.60
RB	Ray Rice	5.30	Ryan Mathews	3.40
RB	Ryan Mathews	3.40	Ray Rice	5.30
TE	Jordan Reed	7.50	Jordan Reed	7.50
W/R	Ted Ginn Jr.	1.98	Timothy Wright	13.80
K	Stephen Hauschka	8.00	Stephen Hauschka	8.00
DEF	Chiefs	22.84	Chiefs	22.84

Carried by One Guy: Andre Johnson, 47.40 points (36.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2013

Demich

115.94

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Adam

111.47

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.50 points left. Optimal 134.44 vs. actual 115.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	16.92	Terrelle Pryor Sr.	16.92
WR	Nate Washington	0.00	Torrey Smith	10.30
WR	Torrey Smith	10.30	Rishard Matthews	3.40
WR	Jarrett Boykin	2.00	Cordarrelle Patterson	5.90
RB	Chris Ivory	21.90	Chris Ivory	21.90
RB	Mike James	23.68	Mike James	23.68
TE	Jason Witten	22.20	Jason Witten	22.20
W/R	Jason Avant	0.00	Mike Tolbert	11.20
K	Graham Gano	11.00	Graham Gano	11.00
DEF	Bengals	7.94	Bengals	7.94

Carried by One Guy: Mike James, 23.68 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.80 points left. Optimal 120.27 vs. actual 111.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	18.16	Cam Newton	18.16
WR	Brian Hartline	5.40	Antonio Brown	16.08
WR	Antonio Brown	16.08	Cole Beasley	9.80
WR	Andrew Hawkins	1.50	Brian Hartline	5.40
RB	Marshawn Lynch	18.10	Roy Helu	3.40
RB	Bilal Powell	2.90	Marshawn Lynch	18.10
TE	Coby Fleener	9.90	Coby Fleener	9.90
W/R	Zac Stacy	34.80	Zac Stacy	34.80
K	Shaun Suisham	7.00	Shaun Suisham	7.00
DEF	Raiders	-2.37	Raiders	-2.37

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Zac Stacy, 34.80 points (30.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Mike James scored 23.68; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2013

Josh

142.79

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

113.65

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.00 points left. Optimal 178.79 vs. actual 142.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	6.96	Matt Ryan	6.96
WR	Harry Douglas	9.70	T.Y. Hilton	36.28
WR	T.Y. Hilton	36.28	Aaron Dobson	29.50
WR	Aaron Dobson	29.50	Harry Douglas	9.70
RB	Darren Sproles	0.70	Darren Sproles	0.70
RB	Adrian Peterson	27.20	Adrian Peterson	27.20
TE	Garrett Graham	6.60	Garrett Graham	6.60
W/R	Vincent Brown	2.20	Riley Cooper	38.20
K	Dan Bailey	11.00	Dan Bailey	11.00
DEF	Cowboys	12.65	Cowboys	12.65

Carried by One Guy: T.Y. Hilton, 36.28 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 113.65 vs. actual 113.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	5.66	Alex Smith	5.66
WR	DeSean Jackson	26.28	DeSean Jackson	26.28
WR	Stevie Johnson	7.10	Stevie Johnson	7.10
WR	Mike Wallace	11.20	Mike Wallace	11.20
RB	DeMarco Murray	8.00	DeMarco Murray	8.00
RB	Stevan Ridley	25.90	Stevan Ridley	25.90
TE	Martellus Bennett	5.60	Martellus Bennett	5.60
W/R	Danny Woodhead	14.30	Danny Woodhead	14.30
K	Mason Crosby	7.00	Mason Crosby	7.00
DEF	Saints	2.61	Saints	2.61

Carried by One Guy: DeSean Jackson, 26.28 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: T.Y. Hilton scored 36.28; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2013

Aaron's Got a Gun

125.85

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

136.69

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 125.85 vs. actual 125.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	22.28	Tony Romo	22.28
WR	Golden Tate	6.24	Golden Tate	6.24
WR	Kendall Wright	8.40	Kendall Wright	8.40
WR	Rod Streater	12.30	Rod Streater	12.30
RB	Steven Jackson	9.10	Lamar Miller	14.90
RB	Lamar Miller	14.90	Steven Jackson	9.10
TE	Tony Gonzalez	17.10	Tony Gonzalez	17.10
W/R	C.J. Spiller	18.50	C.J. Spiller	18.50
K	Robbie Gould	7.00	Robbie Gould	7.00
DEF	Eagles	10.03	Eagles	10.03

Carried by One Guy: Tony Romo, 22.28 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tom Brady scored 35.18; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.00 points left. Optimal 163.69 vs. actual 136.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	35.18	Tom Brady	35.18
WR	Vincent Jackson	2.10	Dez Bryant	9.40
WR	Dez Bryant	9.40	Emmanuel Sanders	13.18
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	13.18	Marlon Brown	21.90
RB	Fred Jackson	10.40	Fred Jackson	10.40
RB	LeSean McCoy	16.00	LeSean McCoy	16.00
TE	Jimmy Graham	30.10	Jimmy Graham	30.10
W/R	DeAngelo Williams	6.40	Eddie Royal	13.60
K	Adam Vinatieri	7.00	Adam Vinatieri	7.00
DEF	Titans	6.93	Titans	6.93

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 35.18 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2013

The Heisenburglers

131.42

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Kev

135.12

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.50 points left. Optimal 154.92 vs. actual 131.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	11.34	Robert Griffin III	11.34
WR	Danny Amendola	22.20	Denarius Moore	10.70
WR	Denarius Moore	10.70	Dwayne Bowe	10.20
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	8.60	Danny Amendola	22.20
RB	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	7.20	Alfred Morris	20.10
RB	Alfred Morris	20.10	Rashad Jennings	29.10
TE	Antonio Gates	8.30	Antonio Gates	8.30
W/R	Chris Johnson	32.50	Chris Johnson	32.50
K	Justin Tucker	6.00	Justin Tucker	6.00
DEF	Seahawks	4.48	Seahawks	4.48

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Chris Johnson, 32.50 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Rob Gronkowski scored 26.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.90 points left. Optimal 140.02 vs. actual 135.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	21.18	Drew Brees	21.18
WR	Jacoby Jones	5.60	A.J. Green	20.30
WR	Jordy Nelson	8.70	Jacoby Jones	5.60
WR	A.J. Green	20.30	Jordy Nelson	8.70
RB	Donald Brown	4.90	Le'Veon Bell	15.90
RB	Le'Veon Bell	15.90	Donald Brown	4.90
TE	Rob Gronkowski	26.80	Rob Gronkowski	26.80
W/R	Dexter McCluster	1.50	Robert Woods	6.40
K	Garrett Hartley	11.00	Garrett Hartley	11.00
DEF	Panthers	19.24	Panthers	19.24

Carried by One Guy: Rob Gronkowski, 26.80 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2013

Big Hut

123.60

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Miller

131.27

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 123.60 vs. actual 123.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	22.28	Russell Wilson	22.28
WR	Pierre Garcon	22.70	Brandon LaFell	10.40
WR	Brandon LaFell	10.40	Jeremy Kerley	0.60
WR	Jeremy Kerley	0.60	Pierre Garcon	22.70
RB	Matt Forte	28.40	Matt Forte	28.40
RB	Chris Ogbonnaya	6.40	Chris Ogbonnaya	6.40
TE	Kyle Rudolph	10.50	Kyle Rudolph	10.50
W/R	Kenny Britt	0.00	Kenny Britt	0.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00
DEF	Patriots	10.32	Patriots	10.32

Carried by One Guy: Matt Forte, 28.40 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Andrew Luck scored 24.84; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.26 points left. Optimal 161.53 vs. actual 131.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	24.84	Ben Roethlisberger	27.90
WR	Lance Moore	10.00	Doug Baldwin	16.50
WR	Brandon Marshall	22.20	Alshon Jeffery	14.60
WR	Alshon Jeffery	14.60	Brandon Marshall	22.20
RB	Jamaal Charles	12.60	Eddie Lacy	23.00
RB	Eddie Lacy	23.00	Jamaal Charles	12.60
TE	Jordan Cameron	0.90	Jared Cook	11.10
W/R	Darren McFadden	2.00	Pierre Thomas	12.50
K	Ryan Succop	11.00	Ryan Succop	11.00
DEF	Bears	10.13	Bears	10.13

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 24.84 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–4	5.818	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Demich	6–3	5.455	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 2
Josh	4–5	4.273	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Aaron's Got a Gun	1–8	4.091	-7.5	-0.682	1 / 4
The Heisenburglers	4–5	3.273	-0.5	-0.045	2 / 1
Kev	4–5	4.455	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Joe Shore	7–2	5.182	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Fischer	2–7	3.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	4–5	3.545	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Horgan	5–4	4.636	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Big Hut	5–4	4.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	7–2	5.182	+6.0	+0.545	3 / 1

2013 week 9 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

The Heisenburglers lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Miller lineup

Cumulative totals through week 9