2013 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2013

j-mart

97.59

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

The Heisenburglers

113.83

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.10 points left. Optimal 106.69 vs. actual 97.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ryan Tannehill	10.76	Ryan Tannehill	10.76
WR	Calvin Johnson	12.40	Eric Decker	11.30
WR	Eric Decker	11.30	Josh Gordon	9.10
WR	Josh Gordon	9.10	Calvin Johnson	12.40
RB	Bernard Pierce	1.40	Trent Richardson	13.10
RB	Giovani Bernard	10.50	Giovani Bernard	10.50
TE	Vernon Davis	8.80	Vernon Davis	8.80
W/R	Trent Richardson	13.10	Keenan Allen	10.50
K	Blair Walsh	12.00	Blair Walsh	12.00
DEF	Cowboys	8.23	Cowboys	8.23

Carried by One Guy: Trent Richardson, 13.10 points (13.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Antonio Gates scored 26.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.40 points left. Optimal 122.23 vs. actual 113.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	14.08	Robert Griffin III	14.08
WR	Wes Welker	23.10	Michael Floyd	11.20
WR	Santonio Holmes	3.00	Wes Welker	23.10
WR	Rod Streater	2.80	Santonio Holmes	3.00
RB	Chris Johnson	4.10	Alfred Morris	7.10
RB	Alfred Morris	7.10	Chris Johnson	4.10
TE	Antonio Gates	26.60	Antonio Gates	26.60
W/R	Jason Snelling	3.90	Jason Snelling	3.90
K	Matt Bryant	10.00	Matt Bryant	10.00
DEF	Seahawks	19.15	Seahawks	19.15

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Gates, 26.60 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2013

Demich

181.11

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Aaron's Got a Gun

144.29

Rank 2; -4.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.22 points left. Optimal 184.33 vs. actual 181.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	31.08	Peyton Manning	31.08
WR	Nate Washington	26.50	Julio Jones	15.80
WR	Julio Jones	15.80	Torrey Smith	27.10
WR	Torrey Smith	27.10	Nate Washington	26.50
RB	Arian Foster	28.10	Rashad Jennings	15.60
RB	Jacquizz Rodgers	12.38	Arian Foster	28.10
TE	Jason Witten	6.80	Jason Witten	6.80
W/R	Knowshon Moreno	15.60	Knowshon Moreno	15.60
K	Ryan Succop	9.00	Ryan Succop	9.00
DEF	Bengals	8.75	Bengals	8.75

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 31.08 points (17.2% of positive starter points).

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.40 points left. Optimal 157.69 vs. actual 144.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	19.34	Tony Romo	19.34
WR	Anquan Boldin	17.50	Golden Tate	4.40
WR	Vincent Jackson	3.70	Kendall Wright	8.10
WR	Donnie Avery	3.30	Anquan Boldin	17.50
RB	Marshawn Lynch	19.80	Bilal Powell	12.30
RB	Bilal Powell	12.30	Marshawn Lynch	19.80
TE	Tony Gonzalez	34.90	Tony Gonzalez	34.90
W/R	Golden Tate	4.40	Kendall Hunter	12.30
K	Robbie Gould	8.00	Robbie Gould	8.00
DEF	Broncos	21.05	Broncos	21.05

Carried by One Guy: Tony Gonzalez, 34.90 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2013

Fischer

119.38

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Adam

131.05

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.04 points left. Optimal 140.42 vs. actual 119.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	16.48	Alex Smith	23.22
WR	Marques Colston	13.10	Marlon Brown	11.40
WR	Stevie Johnson	0.40	Marques Colston	13.10
WR	Julian Edelman	17.30	Julian Edelman	17.30
RB	Adrian Peterson	28.00	DeMarco Murray	11.70
RB	DeMarco Murray	11.70	Adrian Peterson	28.00
TE	Zach Miller	1.20	Zach Miller	1.20
W/R	Marlon Brown	11.40	Fred Jackson	14.70
K	Caleb Sturgis	5.00	Caleb Sturgis	5.00
DEF	Saints	14.80	Saints	14.80

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Adrian Peterson, 28.00 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Philip Rivers scored 28.04; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.36 points left. Optimal 152.41 vs. actual 131.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	28.04	Philip Rivers	28.04
WR	Brian Hartline	4.90	Demaryius Thomas	25.10
WR	Demaryius Thomas	25.10	Antonio Brown	15.86
WR	Antonio Brown	15.86	Chris Givens	6.90
RB	C.J. Spiller	7.70	C.J. Spiller	7.70
RB	Lamar Miller	13.30	Lamar Miller	13.30
TE	Julius Thomas	6.30	Coby Fleener	16.20
W/R	Eddie Royal	5.94	Roy Helu	15.40
K	Matt Prater	12.00	Matt Prater	12.00
DEF	Buccaneers	11.91	Buccaneers	11.91

Carried by One Guy: Philip Rivers, 28.04 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2013

Joe Shore

143.88

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

122.83

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.26 points left. Optimal 151.14 vs. actual 143.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	22.44	Tom Brady	22.44
WR	Dwayne Bowe	13.80	Dez Bryant	23.10
WR	Dez Bryant	23.10	Denarius Moore	8.60
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	7.70	Dwayne Bowe	13.80
RB	LeSean McCoy	9.90	Andre Ellington	6.60
RB	Joique Bell	4.20	LeSean McCoy	9.90
TE	Jimmy Graham	26.00	Jimmy Graham	26.00
W/R	Kenbrell Thompkins	23.70	Kenbrell Thompkins	23.70
K	Greg Zuerlein	4.00	Greg Zuerlein	4.00
DEF	Ravens	9.04	49ers	13.00

Carried by One Guy: Jimmy Graham, 26.00 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.40 points left. Optimal 159.23 vs. actual 122.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	13.78	Colin Kaepernick	13.78
WR	Reggie Wayne	20.50	Reggie Wayne	20.50
WR	Andre Johnson	17.50	Andre Johnson	17.50
WR	Aaron Dobson	1.50	Greg Jennings	22.70
RB	Frank Gore	21.30	Ryan Mathews	12.30
RB	Ray Rice	1.70	Frank Gore	21.30
TE	Charles Clay	13.20	Charles Clay	13.20
W/R	Ryan Broyles	0.00	Willis McGahee	4.60
K	Stephen Hauschka	13.00	Stephen Hauschka	13.00
DEF	Chiefs	20.35	Chiefs	20.35

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Frank Gore, 21.30 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jimmy Graham scored 26.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2013

Kev

111.94

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

138.91

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.52 points left. Optimal 139.46 vs. actual 111.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	34.72	Drew Brees	34.72
WR	A.J. Green	8.60	A.J. Green	8.60
WR	Cecil Shorts	9.60	Cecil Shorts	9.60
WR	Tavon Austin	1.98	Robert Woods	17.30
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	3.30	Le'Veon Bell	22.40
RB	Le'Veon Bell	22.40	Maurice Jones-Drew	3.30
TE	Scott Chandler	3.80	Jared Cook	6.50
W/R	Daryl Richardson	2.90	LeGarrette Blount	12.40
K	Josh Brown	1.00	Josh Brown	1.00
DEF	Colts	23.64	Colts	23.64

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 34.72 points (31.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Victor Cruz scored 29.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.40 points left. Optimal 155.31 vs. actual 138.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	10.62	Ben Roethlisberger	17.32
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	15.80	Victor Cruz	29.40
WR	Pierre Garcon	14.90	Larry Fitzgerald	15.80
WR	Victor Cruz	29.40	Pierre Garcon	14.90
RB	Reggie Bush	27.30	Reggie Bush	27.30
RB	Matt Forte	20.20	Matt Forte	20.20
TE	Kyle Rudolph	1.60	Brandon Pettigrew	8.90
W/R	Miles Austin	0.00	Montee Ball	2.40
K	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00
DEF	Giants	6.09	Giants	6.09

Carried by One Guy: Victor Cruz, 29.40 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2013

Josh

91.95

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller

100.92

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.32 points left. Optimal 128.27 vs. actual 91.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	24.84	Matt Ryan	24.84
WR	DeSean Jackson	4.40	Vincent Brown	7.60
WR	Mike Wallace	3.90	Alshon Jeffery	25.90
WR	T.Y. Hilton	7.48	T.Y. Hilton	7.48
RB	Darren Sproles	31.30	David Wilson	8.52
RB	Doug Martin	7.60	Darren Sproles	31.30
TE	Brandon Myers	0.00	Owen Daniels	10.20
W/R	Stevan Ridley	8.90	Stevan Ridley	8.90
K	Dan Bailey	3.00	Dan Bailey	3.00
DEF	Jets	0.53	Jets	0.53

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Darren Sproles, 31.30 points (34.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jamaal Charles scored 21.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.56 points left. Optimal 121.48 vs. actual 100.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	18.88	Andrew Luck	18.88
WR	Brandon Marshall	13.40	Andre Roberts	1.10
WR	Andre Roberts	1.10	Doug Baldwin	5.40
WR	Doug Baldwin	5.40	Brandon Marshall	13.40
RB	Darren McFadden	2.90	Jamaal Charles	21.20
RB	Jamaal Charles	21.20	Danny Woodhead	23.46
TE	Jordan Cameron	20.10	Jordan Cameron	20.10
W/R	Pierre Thomas	6.30	Pierre Thomas	6.30
K	Phil Dawson	5.00	Phil Dawson	5.00
DEF	Bears	6.64	Bears	6.64

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Charles, 21.20 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–3	2.273	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Demich	3–1	3.273	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Josh	1–3	1.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Aaron's Got a Gun	1–3	2.000	-3.5	-0.318	1 / 2
The Heisenburglers	3–1	1.636	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Kev	1–3	1.727	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Joe Shore	3–1	2.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–3	1.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	3–1	1.818	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
Horgan	1–3	1.364	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Big Hut	2–2	2.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	4–0	2.091	+7.0	+0.636	2 / 0

2013 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

The Heisenburglers lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Miller lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4