2013 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2013

j-mart

137.82

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Aaron's Got a Gun

86.78

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.30 points left. Optimal 162.12 vs. actual 137.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	12.16	Aaron Rodgers	12.16
WR	Steve Smith	5.50	A.J. Green	12.60
WR	Calvin Johnson	23.00	Josh Gordon	29.80
WR	A.J. Green	12.60	Calvin Johnson	23.00
RB	Bernard Pierce	14.20	Bernard Pierce	14.20
RB	Giovani Bernard	17.90	Giovani Bernard	17.90
TE	Heath Miller	5.00	Heath Miller	5.00
W/R	Eric Decker	25.30	Eric Decker	25.30
K	Blair Walsh	10.00	Blair Walsh	10.00
DEF	Cowboys	12.16	Cowboys	12.16

Carried by One Guy: Eric Decker, 25.30 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.60 points left. Optimal 111.38 vs. actual 86.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	20.40	Tony Romo	20.40
WR	Anquan Boldin	9.20	Kendall Wright	10.10
WR	Vincent Jackson	4.90	Anquan Boldin	9.20
WR	Kendall Wright	10.10	Donnie Avery	19.60
RB	Marshawn Lynch	6.90	Marshawn Lynch	6.90
RB	Bobby Rainey	2.60	Marcel Reece	12.50
TE	Tony Gonzalez	4.40	Tony Gonzalez	4.40
W/R	Golden Tate	14.86	Golden Tate	14.86
K	Robbie Gould	10.00	Robbie Gould	10.00
DEF	Broncos	3.42	Broncos	3.42

Carried by One Guy: Tony Romo, 20.40 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2013

Demich

127.37

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Josh

74.58

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.80 points left. Optimal 139.17 vs. actual 127.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	26.76	Peyton Manning	26.76
WR	Nate Burleson	16.60	Julio Jones	18.70
WR	Julio Jones	18.70	Torrey Smith	11.70
WR	Torrey Smith	11.70	Nate Burleson	16.60
RB	Rashard Mendenhall	4.60	Jacquizz Rodgers	10.30
RB	Arian Foster	5.70	Mike Tolbert	7.80
TE	Jason Witten	9.20	Jason Witten	9.20
W/R	Knowshon Moreno	5.00	Mike Williams	9.00
K	Mason Crosby	10.00	Mason Crosby	10.00
DEF	Bengals	19.11	Bengals	19.11

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 26.76 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.48 points left. Optimal 110.06 vs. actual 74.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	15.24	Matthew Stafford	23.60
WR	DeSean Jackson	7.70	Randall Cobb	7.90
WR	Mike Wallace	3.20	DeSean Jackson	7.70
WR	Randall Cobb	7.90	Darrius Heyward-Bey	8.40
RB	Doug Martin	11.80	Doug Martin	11.80
RB	David Wilson	4.38	Isaiah Pead	9.80
TE	Brandon Myers	4.80	Brandon Myers	4.80
W/R	Vincent Brown	2.10	Ahmad Bradshaw	18.60
K	Dan Bailey	5.00	Dan Bailey	5.00
DEF	Browns	12.46	Browns	12.46

Carried by One Guy: Matt Ryan, 15.24 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2013

Joe Shore

127.70

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Adam

91.52

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 55.16 points left. Optimal 182.86 vs. actual 127.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	15.50	Tom Brady	15.50
WR	Dwayne Bowe	0.90	Dez Bryant	11.80
WR	Dez Bryant	11.80	Denarius Moore	23.40
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	5.90	Kenbrell Thompkins	17.60
RB	DeAngelo Williams	14.20	DeAngelo Williams	14.20
RB	LeSean McCoy	23.80	LeSean McCoy	23.80
TE	Jimmy Graham	31.90	Jimmy Graham	31.90
W/R	Joique Bell	21.20	Joique Bell	21.20
K	Greg Zuerlein	1.00	Greg Zuerlein	1.00
DEF	49ers	1.50	Ravens	22.46

Carried by One Guy: Jimmy Graham, 31.90 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 61.36 points left. Optimal 152.88 vs. actual 91.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	29.42	Cam Newton	29.42
WR	Demaryius Thomas	14.40	Demaryius Thomas	14.40
WR	T.Y. Hilton	2.62	Antonio Brown	38.18
WR	Chris Givens	4.00	Alshon Jeffery	8.60
RB	Darren Sproles	8.66	Daniel Thomas	10.20
RB	C.J. Spiller	1.50	Darren Sproles	8.66
TE	Owen Daniels	5.40	Julius Thomas	11.20
W/R	Lamar Miller	6.90	Brian Hartline	13.60
K	Matt Prater	17.00	Matt Prater	17.00
DEF	Rams	1.62	Rams	1.62

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 29.42 points (32.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2013

Kev

99.62

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

64.60

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.18 points left. Optimal 114.80 vs. actual 99.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	33.78	Drew Brees	33.78
WR	Jordy Nelson	13.30	Cecil Shorts	20.30
WR	Cecil Shorts	20.30	Tavon Austin	6.62
WR	Tavon Austin	6.62	Jordy Nelson	13.30
RB	Trent Richardson	9.50	LeGarrette Blount	6.98
RB	Daryl Richardson	0.00	Trent Richardson	9.50
TE	Jared Cook	6.90	Jared Cook	6.90
W/R	Rueben Randle	5.00	Maurice Jones-Drew	13.20
K	Josh Brown	0.00	Josh Brown	0.00
DEF	Bills	4.22	Bills	4.22

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 33.78 points (33.9% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.93 points left. Optimal 89.53 vs. actual 64.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	4.00	Colin Kaepernick	4.00
WR	Reggie Wayne	8.30	Aaron Dobson	8.70
WR	Andre Johnson	6.10	Reggie Wayne	8.30
WR	Greg Jennings	5.80	Andre Johnson	6.10
RB	Frank Gore	11.30	Ryan Mathews	5.80
RB	Ryan Mathews	5.80	Frank Gore	11.30
TE	Jermichael Finley	0.00	Charles Clay	6.00
W/R	James Starks	5.50	Bilal Powell	18.80
K	Stephen Hauschka	8.00	Stephen Hauschka	8.00
DEF	Vikings	9.80	Patriots	12.53

Carried by One Guy: Frank Gore, 11.30 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2013

The Heisenburglers

114.02

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

87.32

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.40 points left. Optimal 153.42 vs. actual 114.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Michael Vick	15.94	Michael Vick	15.94
WR	Wes Welker	17.90	Michael Floyd	6.90
WR	Michael Floyd	6.90	Wes Welker	17.90
WR	Rod Streater	5.70	Sidney Rice	22.40
RB	Chris Johnson	9.60	Alfred Morris	13.30
RB	Alfred Morris	13.30	Johnathan Franklin	20.10
TE	Antonio Gates	14.00	Antonio Gates	14.00
W/R	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	6.90	Jason Snelling	19.10
K	Matt Bryant	12.00	Matt Bryant	12.00
DEF	Seahawks	11.78	Seahawks	11.78

Carried by One Guy: Wes Welker, 17.90 points (15.7% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.60 points left. Optimal 102.92 vs. actual 87.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	21.48	Russell Wilson	21.48
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	8.90	Victor Cruz	4.00
WR	Pierre Garcon	12.30	Larry Fitzgerald	8.90
WR	Victor Cruz	4.00	Pierre Garcon	12.30
RB	Matt Forte	19.10	Montee Ball	4.10
RB	Montee Ball	4.10	Matt Forte	19.10
TE	Kellen Winslow	0.00	Kellen Winslow	0.00
W/R	Miles Austin	3.20	Brandon LaFell	18.80
K	Stephen Gostkowski	14.00	Stephen Gostkowski	14.00
DEF	Giants	0.24	Giants	0.24

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 21.48 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2013

Fischer

96.33

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Miller

137.23

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.82 points left. Optimal 124.15 vs. actual 96.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	14.12	E.J. Manuel	19.72
WR	Marques Colston	9.60	DeAndre Hopkins	9.00
WR	Hakeem Nicks	0.00	Marques Colston	9.60
WR	Julian Edelman	8.48	Stevie Johnson	13.60
RB	Adrian Peterson	18.50	DeMarco Murray	29.80
RB	DeMarco Murray	29.80	Adrian Peterson	18.50
TE	Kyle Rudolph	5.30	Kyle Rudolph	5.30
W/R	Stevan Ridley	4.80	Fred Jackson	12.90
K	Sebastian Janikowski	3.00	Sebastian Janikowski	3.00
DEF	Texans	2.73	Texans	2.73

Carried by One Guy: DeMarco Murray, 29.80 points (30.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.30 points left. Optimal 146.53 vs. actual 137.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	14.76	Andrew Luck	14.76
WR	Brandon Marshall	7.70	Doug Baldwin	10.00
WR	James Jones	11.40	Brandon Marshall	7.70
WR	Andre Roberts	1.10	James Jones	11.40
RB	Darren McFadden	11.54	Darren McFadden	11.54
RB	Jamaal Charles	26.70	Jamaal Charles	26.70
TE	Jordan Cameron	27.60	Jordan Cameron	27.60
W/R	Pierre Thomas	9.70	Danny Woodhead	10.10
K	Phil Dawson	1.00	Phil Dawson	1.00
DEF	Bears	25.73	Bears	25.73

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Cameron, 27.60 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–2	2.182	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Demich	2–1	2.273	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Josh	1–2	1.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Aaron's Got a Gun	1–2	1.091	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
The Heisenburglers	2–1	1.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	1–2	1.455	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Joe Shore	2–1	1.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–2	1.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	2–1	1.182	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
Horgan	1–2	0.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–2	1.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	3–0	1.909	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2013 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

The Heisenburglers lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Miller lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3