2013 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2013

j-mart

81.14

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Demich

90.21

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 42.82 points left. Optimal 123.96 vs. actual 81.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Case Keenum	4.96	Philip Rivers	29.78
WR	Steve Smith	9.40	Rueben Randle	8.22
WR	Eric Decker	1.00	Keenan Allen	19.00
WR	Rueben Randle	8.22	Steve Smith	9.40
RB	Jonathan Stewart	3.90	Jonathan Stewart	3.90
RB	Ray Rice	3.20	Ray Rice	3.20
TE	Vernon Davis	13.00	Vernon Davis	13.00
W/R	Calvin Johnson	17.00	Calvin Johnson	17.00
K	David Akers	3.00	David Akers	3.00
DEF	Ravens	17.46	Ravens	17.46

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Ravens, 17.46 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jason Witten scored 17.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.74 points left. Optimal 121.95 vs. actual 90.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	12.00	Peyton Manning	12.00
WR	Nate Burleson	17.20	Jarrett Boykin	14.50
WR	Wes Welker	5.36	Tavon Austin	17.90
WR	Jarrett Boykin	14.50	Nate Burleson	17.20
RB	Chris Johnson	9.60	Benny Cunningham Jr.	18.90
RB	Mark Ingram II	3.20	Chris Johnson	9.60
TE	Jason Witten	17.70	Jason Witten	17.70
W/R	Bobby Rainey	3.50	Michael Bush	7.00
K	Adam Vinatieri	2.00	Adam Vinatieri	2.00
DEF	Colts	5.15	Colts	5.15

Carried by One Guy: Jason Witten, 17.70 points (19.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2013

The Heisenburglers

107.73

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Adam

167.07

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.90 points left. Optimal 128.63 vs. actual 107.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	5.42	Robert Griffin III	5.42
WR	Danny Amendola	3.20	Michael Floyd	15.90
WR	Torrey Smith	8.40	Rod Streater	9.80
WR	Michael Floyd	15.90	Dwayne Bowe	13.60
RB	Knowshon Moreno	31.50	Rashard Mendenhall	14.30
RB	Alfred Morris	5.20	Knowshon Moreno	31.50
TE	Antonio Gates	3.60	Antonio Gates	3.60
W/R	Rashad Jennings	14.20	Rashad Jennings	14.20
K	Justin Tucker	14.00	Justin Tucker	14.00
DEF	Titans	6.31	Titans	6.31

Carried by One Guy: Knowshon Moreno, 31.50 points (29.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 167.07 vs. actual 167.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	20.06	Cam Newton	20.06
WR	Anquan Boldin	23.90	Antonio Brown	17.78
WR	Brian Hartline	10.30	Anquan Boldin	23.90
WR	Antonio Brown	17.78	Brian Hartline	10.30
RB	Andre Brown	19.80	Zac Stacy	16.20
RB	Zac Stacy	16.20	Andre Brown	19.80
TE	Coby Fleener	13.50	Coby Fleener	13.50
W/R	Tiquan Underwood	26.30	Tiquan Underwood	26.30
K	Matt Prater	6.00	Matt Prater	6.00
DEF	Cardinals	13.23	Cardinals	13.23

Carried by One Guy: Tiquan Underwood, 26.30 points (15.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2013

Kev

126.78

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

116.62

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.42 points left. Optimal 143.20 vs. actual 126.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	18.52	Drew Brees	18.52
WR	Jordy Nelson	7.80	Dexter McCluster	9.98
WR	Dexter McCluster	9.98	Cecil Shorts	11.10
WR	Cecil Shorts	11.10	Jacoby Jones	24.22
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	23.40	Le'Veon Bell	10.80
RB	Le'Veon Bell	10.80	Maurice Jones-Drew	23.40
TE	Rob Gronkowski	18.50	Rob Gronkowski	18.50
W/R	Shane Vereen	13.10	Shane Vereen	13.10
K	Garrett Hartley	6.00	Garrett Hartley	6.00
DEF	Panthers	7.58	Panthers	7.58

Carried by One Guy: Maurice Jones-Drew, 23.40 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.68 points left. Optimal 148.30 vs. actual 116.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	16.48	Matthew Stafford	16.48
WR	Marques Colston	6.00	Marques Colston	6.00
WR	Mike Wallace	23.20	Mike Wallace	23.20
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	1.30	Julian Edelman	30.28
RB	Danny Woodhead	24.74	DeMarco Murray	14.10
RB	DeMarco Murray	14.10	Danny Woodhead	24.74
TE	Martellus Bennett	14.20	Martellus Bennett	14.20
W/R	Stevan Ridley	-0.60	Joique Bell	2.00
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Saints	11.20	Dolphins	11.30

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Danny Woodhead, 24.74 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Maurice Jones-Drew scored 23.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2013

Aaron's Got a Gun

94.47

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Horgan

84.23

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.82 points left. Optimal 124.29 vs. actual 94.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	15.46	Colin Kaepernick	23.40
WR	Hakeem Nicks	0.00	Kris Durham	4.10
WR	Kris Durham	4.10	Kendall Wright	21.30
WR	Kendall Wright	21.30	Donnie Avery	17.10
RB	Steven Jackson	15.40	Lamar Miller	6.70
RB	Lamar Miller	6.70	Steven Jackson	15.40
TE	Tony Gonzalez	6.30	Tony Gonzalez	6.30
W/R	Ryan Mathews	13.50	Ryan Mathews	13.50
K	Robbie Gould	3.00	Robbie Gould	3.00
DEF	Packers	8.71	Broncos	13.49

Carried by One Guy: Kendall Wright, 21.30 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.68 points left. Optimal 85.91 vs. actual 84.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mike Glennon	16.18	Mike Glennon	16.18
WR	Andre Johnson	4.60	Josh Gordon	38.70
WR	Roddy White	3.40	Andre Johnson	4.60
WR	Terrance Williams	1.92	Roddy White	3.40
RB	Frank Gore	3.90	Andre Ellington	8.10
RB	Andre Ellington	8.10	Frank Gore	3.90
TE	Delanie Walker	7.10	Delanie Walker	7.10
W/R	Josh Gordon	38.70	Trent Richardson	3.60
K	Nick Folk	2.00	Nick Folk	2.00
DEF	Chiefs	-1.67	Chiefs	-1.67

Carried by One Guy: Josh Gordon, 38.70 points (45.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kendall Wright scored 21.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2013

Josh

94.24

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

108.86

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.44 points left. Optimal 113.68 vs. actual 94.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	14.96	Eli Manning	14.96
WR	Demaryius Thomas	12.10	Demaryius Thomas	12.10
WR	T.Y. Hilton	6.30	T.Y. Hilton	6.30
WR	Aaron Dobson	0.00	Cordarrelle Patterson	12.92
RB	Adrian Peterson	21.30	Jacquizz Rodgers	4.80
RB	Jacquizz Rodgers	4.80	Adrian Peterson	21.30
TE	Rob Housler	7.10	Rob Housler	7.10
W/R	Harry Douglas	12.40	Harry Douglas	12.40
K	Dan Bailey	6.00	Nick Novak	11.00
DEF	Jets	9.28	Cowboys	10.80

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Adrian Peterson, 21.30 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Alex Smith scored 21.46; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.80 points left. Optimal 117.66 vs. actual 108.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Alex Smith	21.46	Alex Smith	21.46
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	20.10	Brandon LaFell	4.60
WR	Pierre Garcon	8.80	Larry Fitzgerald	20.10
WR	Victor Cruz	1.70	Pierre Garcon	8.80
RB	Reggie Bush	12.00	Reggie Bush	12.00
RB	Matt Forte	13.20	Matt Forte	13.20
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	10.70	Brandon Myers	11.40
W/R	Jerricho Cotchery	0.00	Montee Ball	5.20
K	Stephen Gostkowski	10.00	Stephen Gostkowski	10.00
DEF	Patriots	10.90	Patriots	10.90

Carried by One Guy: Alex Smith, 21.46 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2013

Joe Shore

115.81

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Miller

142.02

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.00 points left. Optimal 124.81 vs. actual 115.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	25.76	Tom Brady	25.76
WR	Vincent Jackson	7.10	Dez Bryant	13.10
WR	Dez Bryant	13.10	Emmanuel Sanders	14.20
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	14.20	Vincent Jackson	7.10
RB	Chris Ogbonnaya	3.10	Ben Tate	5.20
RB	Ben Tate	5.20	DeAngelo Williams	5.70
TE	Jimmy Graham	20.50	Jimmy Graham	20.50
W/R	Marlon Brown	0.60	Nate Washington	7.00
K	Shaun Suisham	10.00	Shaun Suisham	10.00
DEF	49ers	16.25	49ers	16.25

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 25.76 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jamaal Charles scored 31.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.06 points left. Optimal 156.08 vs. actual 142.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	13.62	Ben Roethlisberger	16.38
WR	Brandon Marshall	24.70	Alshon Jeffery	6.60
WR	James Jones	11.50	Brandon Marshall	24.70
WR	Alshon Jeffery	6.60	James Jones	11.50
RB	Jamaal Charles	31.70	Eddie Lacy	26.80
RB	Eddie Lacy	26.80	Jamaal Charles	31.70
TE	Jordan Cameron	4.70	Jared Cook	16.00
W/R	Pierre Thomas	15.50	Pierre Thomas	15.50
K	Phil Dawson	9.00	Phil Dawson	9.00
DEF	Bears	-2.10	Bears	-2.10

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Charles, 31.70 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	7–5	7.000	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Demich	8–4	6.273	+6.5	+0.591	3 / 2
Josh	4–8	5.545	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Aaron's Got a Gun	3–9	5.000	-6.0	-0.545	2 / 4
The Heisenburglers	6–6	5.364	-0.5	-0.045	2 / 1
Kev	6–6	6.455	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Joe Shore	8–4	6.636	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Fischer	2–10	4.182	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Adam	7–5	6.364	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Horgan	7–5	5.727	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Big Hut	6–6	6.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	8–4	7.273	+2.5	+0.227	3 / 2

2013 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

The Heisenburglers lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Miller lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12