2013 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2013

j-mart

102.98

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Big Hut

99.98

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.40 points left. Optimal 117.38 vs. actual 102.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jay Cutler	12.00	Jay Cutler	12.00
WR	Eric Decker	6.70	Rueben Randle	13.10
WR	Rueben Randle	13.10	Kenny Stills	15.00
WR	Keenan Allen	6.10	Steve Smith	9.30
RB	Trent Richardson	5.00	Trent Richardson	5.00
RB	Giovani Bernard	19.50	Giovani Bernard	19.50
TE	Vernon Davis	0.70	Scott Chandler	3.60
W/R	Calvin Johnson	23.30	Calvin Johnson	23.30
K	Dan Carpenter	3.00	Dan Carpenter	3.00
DEF	Ravens	13.58	Ravens	13.58

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Johnson, 23.30 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.50 points left. Optimal 112.48 vs. actual 99.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	21.48	Russell Wilson	21.48
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	3.80	Brandon LaFell	6.80
WR	Pierre Garcon	23.40	Victor Cruz	5.20
WR	Victor Cruz	5.20	Pierre Garcon	23.40
RB	Reggie Bush	14.80	Reggie Bush	14.80
RB	Matt Forte	6.90	Matt Forte	6.90
TE	Brandon Myers	0.00	Brandon Pettigrew	9.50
W/R	Jerricho Cotchery	10.10	Jerricho Cotchery	10.10
K	Matt Bryant	6.00	Matt Bryant	6.00
DEF	Texans	8.30	Texans	8.30

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Pierre Garcon, 23.40 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Calvin Johnson scored 23.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2013

Josh

120.36

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Adam

131.16

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.68 points left. Optimal 121.04 vs. actual 120.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	12.38	Matt Ryan	12.38
WR	Harry Douglas	6.40	T.Y. Hilton	18.50
WR	Hakeem Nicks	6.90	Harry Douglas	6.40
WR	T.Y. Hilton	18.50	Hakeem Nicks	6.90
RB	Darren Sproles	22.66	Darren Sproles	22.66
RB	Adrian Peterson	20.70	Adrian Peterson	20.70
TE	Garrett Graham	2.80	Garrett Graham	2.80
W/R	Riley Cooper	25.70	Riley Cooper	25.70
K	Dan Bailey	5.00	Dan Bailey	5.00
DEF	Cowboys	-0.68	Jets	0.00

Carried by One Guy: Riley Cooper, 25.70 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Marshawn Lynch scored 25.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.70 points left. Optimal 133.86 vs. actual 131.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	6.26	Cam Newton	6.26
WR	Anquan Boldin	3.80	Antonio Brown	16.88
WR	Brian Hartline	8.20	Jerome Simpson	6.50
WR	Antonio Brown	16.88	Brian Hartline	8.20
RB	Marshawn Lynch	25.60	Zac Stacy	13.80
RB	Zac Stacy	13.80	Marshawn Lynch	25.60
TE	Julius Thomas	17.10	Julius Thomas	17.10
W/R	Andre Brown	20.40	Andre Brown	20.40
K	Matt Prater	4.00	Matt Prater	4.00
DEF	Cardinals	15.12	Cardinals	15.12

Carried by One Guy: Marshawn Lynch, 25.60 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2013

Aaron's Got a Gun

110.21

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

94.50

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.91 points left. Optimal 117.12 vs. actual 110.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	9.12	Tony Romo	9.12
WR	Demaryius Thomas	34.30	Demaryius Thomas	34.30
WR	Golden Tate	22.70	Golden Tate	22.70
WR	Kendall Wright	11.30	Kendall Wright	11.30
RB	Lamar Miller	2.10	C.J. Spiller	4.90
RB	Andre Ellington	8.30	Andre Ellington	8.30
TE	Tony Gonzalez	4.40	Tony Gonzalez	4.40
W/R	C.J. Spiller	4.90	Kris Durham	7.00
K	Robbie Gould	6.00	Robbie Gould	6.00
DEF	Broncos	7.09	Eagles	9.10

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 34.30 points (31.1% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.50 points left. Optimal 119.00 vs. actual 94.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	18.66	Matthew Stafford	18.66
WR	DeSean Jackson	16.00	DeAndre Hopkins	9.90
WR	Stevie Johnson	6.30	DeSean Jackson	16.00
WR	Mike Wallace	3.50	Stevie Johnson	6.30
RB	Danny Woodhead	12.40	DeMarco Murray	16.00
RB	DeMarco Murray	16.00	Danny Woodhead	12.40
TE	Martellus Bennett	4.90	Martellus Bennett	4.90
W/R	Joique Bell	4.10	Marques Colston	22.20
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Dolphins	6.64	Dolphins	6.64

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 18.66 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Demaryius Thomas scored 34.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2013

The Heisenburglers

119.81

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

72.86

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.40 points left. Optimal 120.21 vs. actual 119.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	27.64	Robert Griffin III	27.64
WR	Torrey Smith	13.10	Torrey Smith	13.10
WR	Denarius Moore	6.00	Denarius Moore	6.00
WR	Michael Floyd	4.10	Darrius Heyward-Bey	4.50
RB	Knowshon Moreno	15.40	Alfred Morris	15.90
RB	Alfred Morris	15.90	Knowshon Moreno	15.40
TE	Antonio Gates	8.20	Antonio Gates	8.20
W/R	Rashad Jennings	11.70	Rashad Jennings	11.70
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Seahawks	8.77	Seahawks	8.77

Carried by One Guy: Robert Griffin III, 27.64 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.55 points left. Optimal 81.41 vs. actual 72.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	7.30	Eli Manning	7.30
WR	Vincent Jackson	4.30	Dez Bryant	4.90
WR	Dez Bryant	4.90	Emmanuel Sanders	5.80
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	5.80	Eddie Royal	4.60
RB	Fred Jackson	7.70	Jacquizz Rodgers	9.68
RB	LeSean McCoy	18.60	LeSean McCoy	18.60
TE	Jimmy Graham	8.40	Jimmy Graham	8.40
W/R	Ben Tate	7.90	DeAngelo Williams	10.60
K	Adam Vinatieri	0.00	Adam Vinatieri	0.00
DEF	Titans	7.96	49ers	11.53

Carried by One Guy: LeSean McCoy, 18.60 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2013

Demich

90.32

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

102.97

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 93.68 points left. Optimal 184.00 vs. actual 90.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	29.10	Peyton Manning	29.10
WR	Wes Welker	3.60	Rishard Matthews	31.50
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	1.40	Jarrett Boykin	17.20
WR	Jarrett Boykin	17.20	Tavon Austin	39.64
RB	Chris Johnson	7.80	Mark Ingram II	25.00
RB	Mike James	4.10	Chris Johnson	7.80
TE	Jason Witten	3.70	Jason Witten	3.70
W/R	Mike Tolbert	3.30	Cordarrelle Patterson	9.94
K	Graham Gano	6.00	Graham Gano	6.00
DEF	Bengals	14.12	Bengals	14.12

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 29.10 points (32.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Stephen Hauschka scored 19.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.60 points left. Optimal 122.57 vs. actual 102.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	13.42	Nick Foles	22.92
WR	Andre Johnson	18.20	Terrance Williams	8.60
WR	Greg Jennings	3.30	Andre Johnson	18.20
WR	Terrance Williams	8.60	Greg Jennings	3.30
RB	Frank Gore	11.30	Frank Gore	11.30
RB	Ray Rice	8.60	Ray Rice	8.60
TE	Jordan Reed	15.20	Jordan Reed	15.20
W/R	Roddy White	2.50	Ryan Mathews	12.60
K	Stephen Hauschka	19.00	Stephen Hauschka	19.00
DEF	Colts	2.85	Colts	2.85

Carried by One Guy: Stephen Hauschka, 19.00 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2013

Kev

145.85

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller

130.12

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 145.85 vs. actual 145.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	33.68	Drew Brees	33.68
WR	Jordy Nelson	8.60	A.J. Green	27.10
WR	A.J. Green	27.10	Cecil Shorts	5.20
WR	Cecil Shorts	5.20	Jordy Nelson	8.60
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	15.40	Le'Veon Bell	17.10
RB	Le'Veon Bell	17.10	Maurice Jones-Drew	15.40
TE	Greg Olsen	1.90	Greg Olsen	1.90
W/R	Donald Brown	14.80	Donald Brown	14.80
K	Garrett Hartley	7.00	Garrett Hartley	7.00
DEF	Panthers	15.07	Panthers	15.07

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 33.68 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.50 points left. Optimal 134.62 vs. actual 130.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	15.82	Andrew Luck	15.82
WR	Lance Moore	1.90	Alshon Jeffery	18.40
WR	Brandon Marshall	31.40	Brandon Marshall	31.40
WR	Alshon Jeffery	18.40	James Jones	6.40
RB	Pierre Thomas	26.60	Eddie Lacy	9.40
RB	Eddie Lacy	9.40	Pierre Thomas	26.60
TE	Jared Cook	2.20	Jared Cook	2.20
W/R	Doug Baldwin	10.10	Doug Baldwin	10.10
K	Phil Dawson	11.00	Phil Dawson	11.00
DEF	Bears	3.30	Bears	3.30

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Marshall, 31.40 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drew Brees scored 33.68; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–4	6.273	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Demich	6–4	5.545	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 2
Josh	4–6	5.000	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Aaron's Got a Gun	2–8	4.636	-7.5	-0.682	1 / 4
The Heisenburglers	5–5	3.909	-0.5	-0.045	2 / 1
Kev	5–5	5.455	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Joe Shore	7–3	5.182	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Fischer	2–8	3.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	5–5	4.455	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Horgan	6–4	5.000	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Big Hut	5–5	5.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	7–3	6.000	+2.5	+0.227	3 / 2

2013 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

The Heisenburglers lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Miller lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10