2013 week 16 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 17 – 23, 2013

Aaron's Got a Gun

110.86

Fischer

94.61

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.34 points left. Optimal 124.20 vs. actual 110.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	14.94	Colin Kaepernick	22.98
WR	Riley Cooper	12.72	Riley Cooper	12.72
WR	Kris Durham	2.40	Donnie Avery	4.70
WR	Kendall Wright	4.20	Hakeem Nicks	7.20
RB	Steven Jackson	11.90	C.J. Spiller	11.80
RB	C.J. Spiller	11.80	Steven Jackson	11.90
TE	Tony Gonzalez	16.30	Tony Gonzalez	16.30
W/R	Ryan Mathews	19.40	Ryan Mathews	19.40
K	Robbie Gould	5.00	Robbie Gould	5.00
DEF	Broncos	12.20	Broncos	12.20

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Mathews, 19.40 points (17.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.92 points left. Optimal 127.53 vs. actual 94.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	6.78	Matthew Stafford	6.78
WR	DeSean Jackson	6.04	Mike Brown	15.60
WR	Mike Wallace	5.80	Marques Colston	8.80
WR	Julian Edelman	11.42	Julian Edelman	11.42
RB	Danny Woodhead	8.34	DeMarco Murray	24.60
RB	DeMarco Murray	24.60	Danny Woodhead	8.34
TE	Martellus Bennett	11.00	Martellus Bennett	11.00
W/R	Marques Colston	8.80	Joique Bell	26.48
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Dolphins	5.83	Saints	8.51

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: DeMarco Murray, 24.60 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ryan Mathews scored 19.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Consolation

Dec 17 – 23, 2013

Kev

118.43

Big Hut

94.65

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.96 points left. Optimal 119.39 vs. actual 118.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	12.14	Drew Brees	12.14
WR	Jacoby Jones	3.54	A.J. Green	25.20
WR	Jordy Nelson	6.10	Jacoby Jones	3.54
WR	A.J. Green	25.20	Jordy Nelson	6.10
RB	Shane Vereen	7.94	Le'Veon Bell	19.40
RB	Le'Veon Bell	19.40	Maurice Jones-Drew	8.90
TE	Greg Olsen	5.50	Greg Olsen	5.50
W/R	Donald Brown	24.00	Donald Brown	24.00
K	Garrett Hartley	0.00	Garrett Hartley	0.00
DEF	Panthers	14.61	Panthers	14.61

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 25.20 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.62 points left. Optimal 129.27 vs. actual 94.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	9.52	Andy Dalton	33.64
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	3.30	Brandon LaFell	1.80
WR	Pierre Garcon	27.90	Larry Fitzgerald	3.30
WR	Victor Cruz	0.00	Pierre Garcon	27.90
RB	Reggie Bush	3.40	Reggie Bush	3.40
RB	Matt Forte	7.40	Matt Forte	7.40
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	0.00	Brandon Myers	7.30
W/R	Brandon LaFell	1.80	Montee Ball	3.20
K	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00	Stephen Gostkowski	13.00
DEF	Patriots	28.33	Patriots	28.33

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Patriots, 28.33 points (29.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: A.J. Green scored 25.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 17 – 23, 2013

Adam

121.38

Horgan

111.53

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.82 points left. Optimal 130.20 vs. actual 121.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	9.84	Cam Newton	9.84
WR	Anquan Boldin	16.20	Antonio Brown	16.32
WR	Brian Hartline	6.30	Anquan Boldin	16.20
WR	Antonio Brown	16.32	Ted Ginn Jr.	9.52
RB	Andre Brown	4.40	Bilal Powell	10.00
RB	Zac Stacy	17.40	Zac Stacy	17.40
TE	Julius Thomas	16.80	Julius Thomas	16.80
W/R	Marshawn Lynch	8.60	Marshawn Lynch	8.60
K	Matt Prater	13.00	Matt Prater	13.00
DEF	Cardinals	12.52	Cardinals	12.52

Carried by One Guy: Zac Stacy, 17.40 points (14.3% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.76 points left. Optimal 132.29 vs. actual 111.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	18.90	Nick Foles	18.90
WR	Andre Johnson	8.30	Josh Gordon	14.90
WR	Roddy White	28.10	Andre Johnson	8.30
WR	Josh Gordon	14.90	Roddy White	28.10
RB	Frank Gore	16.80	Andre Ellington	8.20
RB	Andre Ellington	8.20	Frank Gore	16.80
TE	Charles Clay	5.36	Delanie Walker	5.50
W/R	Golden Tate	5.34	LeGarrette Blount	19.60
K	Stephen Hauschka	3.00	Stephen Hauschka	3.00
DEF	Chiefs	2.63	Titans	8.99

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Roddy White, 28.10 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Zac Stacy scored 17.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 17 – 23, 2013

Joe Shore

145.00

Miller

111.47

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.02 points left. Optimal 174.02 vs. actual 145.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	10.88	Jay Cutler	14.38
WR	Vincent Jackson	12.30	Dez Bryant	15.30
WR	Dez Bryant	15.30	Vincent Jackson	12.30
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	8.78	Nate Washington	22.70
RB	Fred Jackson	20.80	Fred Jackson	20.80
RB	LeSean McCoy	33.20	LeSean McCoy	33.20
TE	Jimmy Graham	15.80	Jimmy Graham	15.80
W/R	Jordan Todman	1.60	DeAngelo Williams	13.20
K	Phil Dawson	11.00	Phil Dawson	11.00
DEF	Rams	15.34	Rams	15.34

Carried by One Guy: LeSean McCoy, 33.20 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.86 points left. Optimal 127.33 vs. actual 111.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	19.98	Ben Roethlisberger	19.98
WR	Brandon Marshall	11.60	Andre Holmes	9.60
WR	Doug Baldwin	2.44	Alshon Jeffery	10.60
WR	Alshon Jeffery	10.60	Brandon Marshall	11.60
RB	Jamaal Charles	24.90	Eddie Lacy	22.00
RB	Eddie Lacy	22.00	Jamaal Charles	24.90
TE	Heath Miller	3.20	Jared Cook	3.70
W/R	Greg Jennings	4.70	James Jones	12.90
K	Ryan Succop	1.00	Ryan Succop	1.00
DEF	Lions	11.05	Lions	11.05

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Charles, 24.90 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

2013 week 16 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Fischer lineup

Consolation

Kev lineup

Big Hut lineup

Playoff

Adam lineup

Horgan lineup

Playoff

Joe Shore lineup

Miller lineup