2013 week 15 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 10 – 16, 2013

Josh

81.72

The Heisenburglers

105.03

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.66 points left. Optimal 89.38 vs. actual 81.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	8.30	Matt Ryan	8.30
WR	Demaryius Thomas	6.50	Demaryius Thomas	6.50
WR	T.Y. Hilton	11.80	T.Y. Hilton	11.80
WR	Cordarrelle Patterson	13.50	Cordarrelle Patterson	13.50
RB	Darren Sproles	10.20	Jacquizz Rodgers	7.66
RB	Adrian Peterson	0.00	Darren Sproles	10.20
TE	Rob Housler	0.00	Rob Housler	0.00
W/R	Harry Douglas	6.20	Harry Douglas	6.20
K	Dan Bailey	23.00	Dan Bailey	23.00
DEF	Jets	2.22	Jets	2.22

Carried by One Guy: Dan Bailey, 23.00 points (28.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Seahawks scored 24.73; zeroing that score creates a win.

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 46.14 points left. Optimal 151.17 vs. actual 105.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	0.00	Carson Palmer	13.14
WR	Dwayne Bowe	3.90	Torrey Smith	8.90
WR	Torrey Smith	8.90	Rod Streater	7.90
WR	Michael Floyd	4.30	Danny Amendola	20.10
RB	Knowshon Moreno	8.00	Rashard Mendenhall	20.30
RB	Alfred Morris	7.10	Knowshon Moreno	8.00
TE	Antonio Gates	3.30	Antonio Gates	3.30
W/R	Rashad Jennings	23.80	Rashad Jennings	23.80
K	Justin Tucker	21.00	Justin Tucker	21.00
DEF	Seahawks	24.73	Seahawks	24.73

Carried by One Guy: Seahawks, 24.73 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 10 – 16, 2013

Kev

123.99

Fischer

163.66

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 123.99 vs. actual 123.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	22.52	Drew Brees	22.52
WR	Jacoby Jones	12.68	A.J. Green	13.80
WR	Jordy Nelson	14.60	Jacoby Jones	12.68
WR	A.J. Green	13.80	Jordy Nelson	14.60
RB	Shane Vereen	3.60	Shane Vereen	3.60
RB	Le'Veon Bell	19.20	Le'Veon Bell	19.20
TE	Greg Olsen	11.30	Greg Olsen	11.30
W/R	Donald Brown	3.80	Donald Brown	3.80
K	Garrett Hartley	5.00	Garrett Hartley	5.00
DEF	Panthers	17.49	Panthers	17.49

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 22.52 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.50 points left. Optimal 164.16 vs. actual 163.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	8.30	Matthew Stafford	8.30
WR	DeSean Jackson	32.52	DeSean Jackson	32.52
WR	Mike Wallace	22.80	Mike Wallace	22.80
WR	Julian Edelman	28.40	Julian Edelman	28.40
RB	Danny Woodhead	4.70	Joique Bell	5.20
RB	DeMarco Murray	25.30	DeMarco Murray	25.30
TE	Martellus Bennett	8.10	Martellus Bennett	8.10
W/R	Marques Colston	19.20	Marques Colston	19.20
K	Mason Crosby	9.00	Mason Crosby	9.00
DEF	Dolphins	5.34	Dolphins	5.34

Carried by One Guy: DeSean Jackson, 32.52 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 10 – 16, 2013

Aaron's Got a Gun

123.40

Big Hut

107.43

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.30 points left. Optimal 126.70 vs. actual 123.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	20.32	Tony Romo	20.32
WR	Riley Cooper	6.90	Riley Cooper	6.90
WR	Kris Durham	1.00	Kendall Wright	23.00
WR	Kendall Wright	23.00	Donnie Avery	4.30
RB	Steven Jackson	18.30	C.J. Spiller	7.30
RB	C.J. Spiller	7.30	Steven Jackson	18.30
TE	Tony Gonzalez	15.20	Tony Gonzalez	15.20
W/R	Ryan Mathews	21.30	Ryan Mathews	21.30
K	Robbie Gould	7.00	Robbie Gould	7.00
DEF	Broncos	3.08	Broncos	3.08

Carried by One Guy: Kendall Wright, 23.00 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.64 points left. Optimal 129.07 vs. actual 107.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	15.24	Alex Smith	31.18
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	7.90	Brandon LaFell	8.20
WR	Pierre Garcon	24.40	Larry Fitzgerald	7.90
WR	Victor Cruz	3.50	Pierre Garcon	24.40
RB	Reggie Bush	17.10	Reggie Bush	17.10
RB	Matt Forte	15.60	Matt Forte	15.60
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	3.30	Brandon Myers	5.20
W/R	Brandon LaFell	8.20	Montee Ball	7.30
K	Stephen Gostkowski	6.00	Stephen Gostkowski	6.00
DEF	Patriots	6.19	Patriots	6.19

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Pierre Garcon, 24.40 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kendall Wright scored 23.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 10 – 16, 2013

j-mart

102.90

Demich

109.17

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.30 points left. Optimal 114.20 vs. actual 102.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	15.54	Philip Rivers	15.54
WR	Steve Smith	3.50	Keenan Allen	16.12
WR	Eric Decker	5.20	Kenny Stills	7.00
WR	Keenan Allen	16.12	Michael Crabtree	13.00
RB	Ray Rice	6.90	Giovani Bernard	11.60
RB	Giovani Bernard	11.60	Ray Rice	6.90
TE	Vernon Davis	16.40	Vernon Davis	16.40
W/R	Calvin Johnson	12.80	Calvin Johnson	12.80
K	David Akers	5.00	David Akers	5.00
DEF	Ravens	9.84	Ravens	9.84

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Vernon Davis, 16.40 points (15.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Peyton Manning scored 17.56; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.10 points left. Optimal 120.27 vs. actual 109.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	17.56	Peyton Manning	17.56
WR	Nate Burleson	7.10	Marvin Jones Jr.	13.30
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	13.30	Rishard Matthews	8.90
WR	Jarrett Boykin	11.30	Jarrett Boykin	11.30
RB	Chris Johnson	16.60	Michael Bush	10.40
RB	Bobby Rainey	3.50	Chris Johnson	16.60
TE	Jason Witten	15.10	Jason Witten	15.10
W/R	Chris Ivory	6.60	Mike Tolbert	9.00
K	Adam Vinatieri	13.00	Adam Vinatieri	13.00
DEF	Chargers	5.11	Chargers	5.11

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 17.56 points (16.1% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 10 – 16, 2013

Joe Shore

131.36

Horgan

124.64

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.00 points left. Optimal 161.36 vs. actual 131.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	22.56	Tom Brady	22.56
WR	Vincent Jackson	14.30	Dez Bryant	28.80
WR	Dez Bryant	28.80	Vincent Jackson	14.30
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	6.30	Nate Washington	12.70
RB	Fred Jackson	9.30	Jordan Todman	19.30
RB	LeSean McCoy	13.10	LeSean McCoy	13.10
TE	Jimmy Graham	3.50	Jimmy Graham	3.50
W/R	Ben Tate	10.70	DeAngelo Williams	24.30
K	Caleb Sturgis	6.00	Caleb Sturgis	6.00
DEF	49ers	16.80	49ers	16.80

Carried by One Guy: Dez Bryant, 28.80 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.80 points left. Optimal 153.44 vs. actual 124.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	35.22	Nick Foles	35.22
WR	Andre Johnson	3.80	Golden Tate	4.96
WR	Roddy White	7.80	Josh Gordon	14.20
WR	Josh Gordon	14.20	Roddy White	7.80
RB	Frank Gore	8.60	James Starks	8.80
RB	Andre Ellington	17.80	Andre Ellington	17.80
TE	Charles Clay	1.10	Delanie Walker	15.30
W/R	Golden Tate	4.96	Trent Richardson	18.20
K	Stephen Hauschka	12.00	Stephen Hauschka	12.00
DEF	Chiefs	19.16	Chiefs	19.16

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Nick Foles, 35.22 points (28.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dez Bryant scored 28.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 10 – 16, 2013

Adam

132.20

Miller

183.62

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.50 points left. Optimal 153.70 vs. actual 132.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	16.12	Cam Newton	16.12
WR	Anquan Boldin	5.80	Antonio Brown	22.76
WR	Brian Hartline	9.50	Anquan Boldin	5.80
WR	Antonio Brown	22.76	Brian Hartline	9.50
RB	Andre Brown	4.60	Matt Asiata	26.10
RB	Zac Stacy	22.80	Zac Stacy	22.80
TE	Julius Thomas	6.90	Julius Thomas	6.90
W/R	Marshawn Lynch	21.00	Marshawn Lynch	21.00
K	Matt Prater	9.00	Matt Prater	9.00
DEF	Cardinals	13.72	Cardinals	13.72

Carried by One Guy: Zac Stacy, 22.80 points (17.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jamaal Charles scored 57.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.00 points left. Optimal 205.62 vs. actual 183.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	16.10	Andrew Luck	16.10
WR	Brandon Marshall	18.34	Doug Baldwin	16.40
WR	James Jones	12.40	Alshon Jeffery	15.40
WR	Alshon Jeffery	15.40	Brandon Marshall	18.34
RB	Jamaal Charles	57.50	Eddie Lacy	27.10
RB	Eddie Lacy	27.10	Jamaal Charles	57.50
TE	Jordan Cameron	3.80	Jordan Cameron	3.80
W/R	Pierre Thomas	11.80	Greg Jennings	29.80
K	Ryan Succop	8.00	Ryan Succop	8.00
DEF	Bears	13.18	Bears	13.18

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Charles, 57.50 points (31.3% of positive starter points).

2013 week 15 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

Josh lineup

The Heisenburglers lineup

Consolation

Kev lineup

Fischer lineup

Consolation

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Big Hut lineup

Playoff

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Playoff

Joe Shore lineup

Horgan lineup

Playoff

Adam lineup

Miller lineup