2013 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2013

j-mart

128.91

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Demich

146.61

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.10 points left. Optimal 135.01 vs. actual 128.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	26.62	Aaron Rodgers	26.62
WR	Steve Smith	14.10	A.J. Green	34.70
WR	Calvin Johnson	5.70	Steve Smith	14.10
WR	A.J. Green	34.70	Calvin Johnson	5.70
RB	Chris Ivory	1.50	Bernard Pierce	2.20
RB	Giovani Bernard	3.50	Giovani Bernard	3.50
TE	Vernon Davis	24.80	Vernon Davis	24.80
W/R	Eric Decker	4.20	Kenny Stills	9.60
K	Blair Walsh	8.00	Blair Walsh	8.00
DEF	Steelers	5.79	Steelers	5.79

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 34.70 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Peyton Manning scored 48.28; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.20 points left. Optimal 148.81 vs. actual 146.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	48.28	Peyton Manning	48.28
WR	Nate Burleson	10.80	Julio Jones	15.10
WR	Julio Jones	15.10	Torrey Smith	11.20
WR	Torrey Smith	11.20	Jermaine Kearse	11.90
RB	Rashard Mendenhall	6.90	Knowshon Moreno	8.00
RB	Arian Foster	12.00	Arian Foster	12.00
TE	Jason Witten	23.00	Jason Witten	23.00
W/R	Mike Williams	13.20	Mike Williams	13.20
K	Mason Crosby	4.00	Mason Crosby	4.00
DEF	Bengals	2.13	Bengals	2.13

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 48.28 points (32.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2013

The Heisenburglers

116.58

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam

120.47

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.46 points left. Optimal 145.04 vs. actual 116.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	21.56	Michael Vick	25.52
WR	Wes Welker	21.74	Michael Floyd	10.20
WR	Danny Amendola	17.40	Wes Welker	21.74
WR	Michael Floyd	10.20	Danny Amendola	17.40
RB	Chris Johnson	7.00	Shane Vereen	21.40
RB	Alfred Morris	9.90	Alfred Morris	9.90
TE	Antonio Gates	5.90	Antonio Gates	5.90
W/R	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	9.40	Jerome Simpson	19.50
K	Matt Bryant	4.00	Matt Bryant	4.00
DEF	Seahawks	9.48	Seahawks	9.48

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Wes Welker, 21.74 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Demaryius Thomas scored 32.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.44 points left. Optimal 151.91 vs. actual 120.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	12.80	Cam Newton	12.80
WR	Demaryius Thomas	32.60	Demaryius Thomas	32.60
WR	Antonio Brown	10.34	Antonio Brown	10.34
WR	T.Y. Hilton	3.96	Alshon Jeffery	6.70
RB	Darren Sproles	14.60	C.J. Spiller	6.00
RB	C.J. Spiller	6.00	Darren Sproles	14.60
TE	Owen Daniels	21.20	Julius Thomas	27.50
W/R	Lamar Miller	1.50	Brian Hartline	23.90
K	Matt Prater	7.00	Matt Prater	7.00
DEF	Rams	10.47	Rams	10.47

Carried by One Guy: Demaryius Thomas, 32.60 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2013

Kev

130.73

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Fischer

132.30

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.30 points left. Optimal 144.03 vs. actual 130.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	22.48	Drew Brees	22.48
WR	Jordy Nelson	24.50	Rueben Randle	15.00
WR	Cecil Shorts	5.50	Tavon Austin	7.02
WR	Tavon Austin	7.02	Jordy Nelson	24.50
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	4.50	Trent Richardson	8.70
RB	Trent Richardson	8.70	Daryl Richardson	12.10
TE	Jared Cook	29.60	Jared Cook	29.60
W/R	Daryl Richardson	12.10	Robert Woods	8.30
K	Josh Brown	6.00	Josh Brown	6.00
DEF	Cardinals	10.33	Cardinals	10.33

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jared Cook, 29.60 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Adrian Peterson scored 31.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures unavailable: inconsistent-eligibility.

Carried by One Guy: Adrian Peterson, 31.10 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Roster evidence flags: inconsistent-eligibility.

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2013

Aaron's Got a Gun

135.21

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Horgan

135.45

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.20 points left. Optimal 140.41 vs. actual 135.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	16.42	Tony Romo	16.42
WR	Anquan Boldin	35.30	Anquan Boldin	35.30
WR	Roddy White	2.90	Vincent Jackson	20.90
WR	Vincent Jackson	20.90	Donnie Avery	8.10
RB	Steven Jackson	14.70	Steven Jackson	14.70
RB	Marshawn Lynch	6.20	Marshawn Lynch	6.20
TE	Tony Gonzalez	11.10	Tony Gonzalez	11.10
W/R	Golden Tate	8.06	Golden Tate	8.06
K	Robbie Gould	8.00	Robbie Gould	8.00
DEF	Broncos	11.63	Broncos	11.63

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Anquan Boldin, 35.30 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Colin Kaepernick scored 32.68; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.10 points left. Optimal 149.55 vs. actual 135.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	32.68	Colin Kaepernick	32.68
WR	Reggie Wayne	19.60	Reggie Wayne	19.60
WR	Andre Johnson	22.60	Andre Johnson	22.60
WR	Greg Jennings	4.80	Greg Jennings	4.80
RB	Frank Gore	13.50	Frank Gore	13.50
RB	Ray Rice	17.10	Ray Rice	17.10
TE	Zach Sudfeld	0.00	Jermichael Finley	14.10
W/R	Ryan Mathews	12.50	Ryan Mathews	12.50
K	Stephen Hauschka	6.00	Stephen Hauschka	6.00
DEF	Patriots	6.67	Patriots	6.67

Carried by One Guy: Colin Kaepernick, 32.68 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2013

Josh

118.52

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

160.16

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.48 points left. Optimal 132.00 vs. actual 118.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	21.36	Matthew Stafford	21.98
WR	DeSean Jackson	22.10	Randall Cobb	23.22
WR	Mike Wallace	2.00	Jeremy Kerley	6.46
WR	Randall Cobb	23.22	DeSean Jackson	22.10
RB	Doug Martin	12.20	Doug Martin	12.20
RB	David Wilson	-2.10	Vick Ballard	6.30
TE	Brandon Myers	16.10	Brandon Myers	16.10
W/R	Vincent Brown	8.30	Vincent Brown	8.30
K	Randy Bullock	8.00	Randy Bullock	8.00
DEF	Browns	7.34	Browns	7.34

Carried by One Guy: Randall Cobb, 23.22 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 160.16 vs. actual 160.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	17.50	Russell Wilson	17.50
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	24.00	Victor Cruz	34.30
WR	Pierre Garcon	9.90	Larry Fitzgerald	24.00
WR	Victor Cruz	34.30	Pierre Garcon	9.90
RB	Reggie Bush	29.10	Reggie Bush	29.10
RB	Matt Forte	17.10	Matt Forte	17.10
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	-0.40	Brandon Pettigrew	-0.40
W/R	Miles Austin	12.20	Miles Austin	12.20
K	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00	Stephen Gostkowski	12.00
DEF	Giants	4.46	Giants	4.46

Carried by One Guy: Victor Cruz, 34.30 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2013

Joe Shore

104.80

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller

118.34

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.46 points left. Optimal 136.26 vs. actual 104.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	15.12	Jay Cutler	17.28
WR	Dwayne Bowe	5.00	Emmanuel Sanders	9.20
WR	Dez Bryant	4.20	Denarius Moore	12.80
WR	Kenbrell Thompkins	6.20	Kenbrell Thompkins	6.20
RB	DeAngelo Williams	9.50	DeAngelo Williams	9.50
RB	LeSean McCoy	27.40	LeSean McCoy	27.40
TE	Jimmy Graham	12.50	Jimmy Graham	12.50
W/R	Ben Tate	7.20	Joique Bell	23.70
K	Greg Zuerlein	13.00	Greg Zuerlein	13.00
DEF	49ers	4.68	49ers	4.68

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: LeSean McCoy, 27.40 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Andrew Luck scored 24.92; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.80 points left. Optimal 149.14 vs. actual 118.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	24.92	Andrew Luck	24.92
WR	Lance Moore	3.30	Andre Roberts	13.70
WR	Brandon Marshall	22.40	Malcom Floyd	5.20
WR	James Jones	0.00	Brandon Marshall	22.40
RB	Darren McFadden	14.10	Darren McFadden	14.10
RB	Jamaal Charles	17.50	Jamaal Charles	17.50
TE	Greg Olsen	8.10	Jordan Cameron	23.30
W/R	Eddie Lacy	11.70	Eddie Lacy	11.70
K	Phil Dawson	9.00	Phil Dawson	9.00
DEF	Bears	7.32	Bears	7.32

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 24.92 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–1	0.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–0	0.909	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	0–1	0.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Aaron's Got a Gun	0–1	0.727	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
The Heisenburglers	0–1	0.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	0–1	0.545	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Joe Shore	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–0	0.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	1–0	0.364	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Horgan	1–0	0.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–0	0.182	+3.5	+0.318	1 / 0

2013 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

The Heisenburglers lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Miller lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1