2013 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2013

j-mart

137.98

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

86.54

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.20 points left. Optimal 151.18 vs. actual 137.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	23.60	Aaron Rodgers	23.60
WR	Steve Smith	15.40	Eric Decker	27.00
WR	Calvin Johnson	34.00	Steve Smith	15.40
WR	Eric Decker	27.00	Calvin Johnson	34.00
RB	Trent Richardson	1.70	Giovani Bernard	8.40
RB	Giovani Bernard	8.40	Donald Brown	8.00
TE	Vernon Davis	8.20	Vernon Davis	8.20
W/R	Josh Gordon	3.10	Rueben Randle	10.00
K	Justin Tucker	11.00	Justin Tucker	11.00
DEF	Cardinals	5.58	Cardinals	5.58

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Johnson, 34.00 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.50 points left. Optimal 101.04 vs. actual 86.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	28.28	Matthew Stafford	28.28
WR	Hakeem Nicks	3.80	DeAndre Hopkins	15.10
WR	Julian Edelman	8.06	Aaron Dobson	4.90
WR	Aaron Dobson	4.90	Julian Edelman	8.06
RB	Willis McGahee	3.90	Joique Bell	7.10
RB	Adrian Peterson	6.60	Adrian Peterson	6.60
TE	Martellus Bennett	7.20	Martellus Bennett	7.20
W/R	Stevie Johnson	9.10	Stevie Johnson	9.10
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Dolphins	8.70	Dolphins	8.70

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 28.28 points (32.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2013

Demich

100.63

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

114.51

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.10 points left. Optimal 114.73 vs. actual 100.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	27.34	Peyton Manning	27.34
WR	Mike Williams	5.20	Torrey Smith	7.60
WR	Torrey Smith	7.60	Jarrett Boykin	22.30
WR	Jarrett Boykin	22.30	Nate Washington	7.70
RB	Knowshon Moreno	12.40	Chris Ivory	12.70
RB	Arian Foster	1.10	Knowshon Moreno	12.40
TE	Jason Witten	6.80	Jason Witten	6.80
W/R	Mike Tolbert	9.60	Mike Tolbert	9.60
K	Nick Novak	5.00	Nick Novak	5.00
DEF	Bengals	3.29	Bengals	3.29

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 27.34 points (27.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Vincent Jackson scored 32.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.24 points left. Optimal 137.75 vs. actual 114.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	7.12	Tom Brady	7.12
WR	Vincent Jackson	32.80	Dez Bryant	17.00
WR	Dez Bryant	17.00	Vincent Jackson	32.80
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	2.08	Dwayne Bowe	9.10
RB	Fred Jackson	16.50	Fred Jackson	16.50
RB	LeSean McCoy	11.10	LeSean McCoy	11.10
TE	Jared Cook	5.30	Jared Cook	5.30
W/R	DeAngelo Williams	6.40	Jacquizz Rodgers	22.62
K	Blair Walsh	1.00	Blair Walsh	1.00
DEF	49ers	15.21	49ers	15.21

Carried by One Guy: Vincent Jackson, 32.80 points (28.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2013

Josh

108.83

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Kev

122.65

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.50 points left. Optimal 121.33 vs. actual 108.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	21.72	Matt Ryan	21.72
WR	DeSean Jackson	3.60	Alshon Jeffery	16.10
WR	Mike Wallace	11.30	T.Y. Hilton	4.40
WR	T.Y. Hilton	4.40	Mike Wallace	11.30
RB	Stevan Ridley	12.30	Stevan Ridley	12.30
RB	Doug Martin	5.90	Doug Martin	5.90
TE	Jeff Cumberland	5.60	Jeff Cumberland	5.60
W/R	Harry Douglas	26.40	Harry Douglas	26.40
K	Dan Bailey	5.00	Dan Bailey	5.00
DEF	Jets	12.61	Jets	12.61

Carried by One Guy: Harry Douglas, 26.40 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: A.J. Green scored 26.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.68 points left. Optimal 134.33 vs. actual 122.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	5.70	Nick Foles	5.70
WR	Jacoby Jones	6.82	A.J. Green	26.50
WR	Jordy Nelson	12.70	Jordy Nelson	12.70
WR	A.J. Green	26.50	Brandon Gibson	18.50
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	6.60	Le'Veon Bell	10.40
RB	Le'Veon Bell	10.40	Maurice Jones-Drew	6.60
TE	Rob Gronkowski	17.40	Rob Gronkowski	17.40
W/R	Cecil Shorts	12.00	Cecil Shorts	12.00
K	Ryan Succop	4.00	Ryan Succop	4.00
DEF	Panthers	20.53	Panthers	20.53

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Green, 26.50 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2013

Aaron's Got a Gun

82.51

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

The Heisenburglers

113.21

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.70 points left. Optimal 94.21 vs. actual 82.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	14.88	Tony Romo	14.88
WR	Golden Tate	10.24	Golden Tate	10.24
WR	Kendall Wright	14.30	Kendall Wright	14.30
WR	Kenbrell Thompkins	2.60	Anquan Boldin	9.90
RB	Marshawn Lynch	15.90	Andre Ellington	2.30
RB	Bilal Powell	0.60	Marshawn Lynch	15.90
TE	Tony Gonzalez	4.00	Heath Miller	6.70
W/R	Kris Durham	6.60	Kris Durham	6.60
K	Robbie Gould	13.00	Robbie Gould	13.00
DEF	Broncos	0.39	Broncos	0.39

Carried by One Guy: Marshawn Lynch, 15.90 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.50 points left. Optimal 139.71 vs. actual 113.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	26.32	Robert Griffin III	26.32
WR	Wes Welker	13.10	Michael Floyd	10.10
WR	Austin Pettis	2.70	Wes Welker	13.10
WR	Michael Floyd	10.10	Sidney Rice	12.50
RB	Chris Johnson	19.00	Brandon Bolden	10.80
RB	Alfred Morris	9.50	Chris Johnson	19.00
TE	Antonio Gates	6.10	Antonio Gates	6.10
W/R	Brandon Jacobs	0.00	Darrius Heyward-Bey	15.40
K	Adam Vinatieri	15.00	Adam Vinatieri	15.00
DEF	Seahawks	11.39	Seahawks	11.39

Carried by One Guy: Robert Griffin III, 26.32 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2013

Horgan

131.15

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Miller

126.32

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.76 points left. Optimal 157.91 vs. actual 131.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	15.80	Colin Kaepernick	20.76
WR	Reggie Wayne	7.50	Terrance Williams	16.10
WR	Andre Johnson	10.90	Reggie Wayne	7.50
WR	Greg Jennings	6.10	Andre Johnson	10.90
RB	Frank Gore	23.40	Joseph Randle	10.80
RB	Ray Rice	9.20	Frank Gore	23.40
TE	Jermichael Finley	15.70	Jordan Reed	25.90
W/R	Ryan Mathews	19.00	Ryan Mathews	19.00
K	Stephen Hauschka	13.00	Stephen Hauschka	13.00
DEF	Chiefs	10.55	Chiefs	10.55

Carried by One Guy: Frank Gore, 23.40 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.70 points left. Optimal 130.02 vs. actual 126.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	30.02	Andrew Luck	30.02
WR	Brandon Marshall	10.50	Andre Roberts	5.80
WR	Davone Bess	2.10	Doug Baldwin	2.10
WR	Doug Baldwin	2.10	Brandon Marshall	10.50
RB	Jamaal Charles	17.80	Eddie Lacy	19.30
RB	Eddie Lacy	19.30	Jamaal Charles	17.80
TE	Jordan Cameron	15.00	Jordan Cameron	15.00
W/R	Danny Woodhead	15.60	Danny Woodhead	15.60
K	Phil Dawson	8.00	Phil Dawson	8.00
DEF	Bears	5.90	Bears	5.90

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 30.02 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Frank Gore scored 23.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2013

Adam

105.85

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

116.14

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.90 points left. Optimal 126.75 vs. actual 105.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	14.76	Cam Newton	14.76
WR	Brian Hartline	9.90	Demaryius Thomas	16.20
WR	Demaryius Thomas	16.20	Antonio Brown	8.66
WR	Antonio Brown	8.66	Brian Hartline	9.90
RB	C.J. Spiller	2.20	Roy Helu	23.10
RB	Lamar Miller	5.20	Lamar Miller	5.20
TE	Julius Thomas	12.60	Julius Thomas	12.60
W/R	Zac Stacy	16.70	Zac Stacy	16.70
K	Matt Prater	10.00	Matt Prater	10.00
DEF	Packers	9.63	Packers	9.63

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Zac Stacy, 16.70 points (15.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matt Forte scored 29.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.18 points left. Optimal 146.32 vs. actual 116.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	20.30	Andy Dalton	29.48
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	2.70	Victor Cruz	7.50
WR	Pierre Garcon	8.30	Jeremy Kerley	19.70
WR	Victor Cruz	7.50	Pierre Garcon	8.30
RB	Reggie Bush	10.90	Reggie Bush	10.90
RB	Matt Forte	29.90	Matt Forte	29.90
TE	Kyle Rudolph	4.20	Brandon Pettigrew	8.20
W/R	Justin Blackmon	8.80	Justin Blackmon	8.80
K	Stephen Gostkowski	10.00	Stephen Gostkowski	10.00
DEF	Patriots	13.54	Patriots	13.54

Carried by One Guy: Matt Forte, 29.90 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–3	4.818	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Demich	5–2	4.636	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Josh	3–4	3.182	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Aaron's Got a Gun	1–6	3.000	-6.0	-0.545	1 / 3
The Heisenburglers	4–3	2.545	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
Kev	2–5	2.727	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Joe Shore	5–2	3.818	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–6	2.273	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	4–3	3.273	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Horgan	4–3	3.727	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Big Hut	4–3	3.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	5–2	4.273	+3.5	+0.318	2 / 1

2013 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

The Heisenburglers lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Big Hut lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7