2013 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2013

j-mart

122.22

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Miller

100.70

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.16 points left. Optimal 127.38 vs. actual 122.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Case Keenum	8.80	Case Keenum	8.80
WR	Eric Decker	9.60	Eric Decker	9.60
WR	Josh Gordon	23.00	Rueben Randle	11.84
WR	Keenan Allen	6.68	Josh Gordon	23.00
RB	Trent Richardson	7.80	Trent Richardson	7.80
RB	Giovani Bernard	10.60	Giovani Bernard	10.60
TE	Vernon Davis	11.30	Vernon Davis	11.30
W/R	Calvin Johnson	34.90	Calvin Johnson	34.90
K	Alex Henery	5.00	Alex Henery	5.00
DEF	Ravens	4.54	Ravens	4.54

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Johnson, 34.90 points (28.6% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.60 points left. Optimal 128.30 vs. actual 100.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	18.38	Ben Roethlisberger	33.88
WR	Brandon Marshall	6.20	Doug Baldwin	13.30
WR	James Jones	6.50	Alshon Jeffery	13.50
WR	Alshon Jeffery	13.50	James Jones	6.50
RB	Jamaal Charles	8.20	Eddie Lacy	11.80
RB	Eddie Lacy	11.80	Jamaal Charles	8.20
TE	Jordan Cameron	5.90	Jordan Cameron	5.90
W/R	Pierre Thomas	10.90	Pierre Thomas	10.90
K	Ryan Succop	4.00	Phil Dawson	9.00
DEF	Bears	15.32	Bears	15.32

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Andrew Luck, 18.38 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Calvin Johnson scored 34.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2013

Aaron's Got a Gun

84.87

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Adam

150.82

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.06 points left. Optimal 101.93 vs. actual 84.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh McCown	12.54	Colin Kaepernick	13.58
WR	Hakeem Nicks	7.00	Kris Durham	5.70
WR	Riley Cooper	5.20	Kendall Wright	12.50
WR	Kris Durham	5.70	Hakeem Nicks	7.00
RB	C.J. Spiller	2.60	Ryan Mathews	17.30
RB	Lamar Miller	4.70	Steven Jackson	7.50
TE	Tony Gonzalez	11.80	Tony Gonzalez	11.80
W/R	Ryan Mathews	17.30	Santonio Holmes	8.10
K	Robbie Gould	11.00	Robbie Gould	11.00
DEF	Packers	7.03	Broncos	7.45

Carried by One Guy: Ryan Mathews, 17.30 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.60 points left. Optimal 160.42 vs. actual 150.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	26.56	Cam Newton	26.56
WR	Anquan Boldin	14.60	Antonio Brown	31.74
WR	Brian Hartline	9.00	Anquan Boldin	14.60
WR	Antonio Brown	31.74	Brian Hartline	9.00
RB	Marshawn Lynch	25.30	Marshawn Lynch	25.30
RB	Andre Brown	10.80	Andre Brown	10.80
TE	Julius Thomas	11.80	Coby Fleener	16.70
W/R	Bernard Pierce	1.80	Roy Helu	6.50
K	Matt Prater	11.00	Matt Prater	11.00
DEF	Cardinals	8.22	Cardinals	8.22

Carried by One Guy: Antonio Brown, 31.74 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2013

The Heisenburglers

155.09

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

88.83

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.16 points left. Optimal 180.25 vs. actual 155.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	22.96	Robert Griffin III	22.96
WR	Danny Amendola	7.76	Torrey Smith	11.70
WR	Torrey Smith	11.70	Michael Floyd	30.30
WR	Michael Floyd	30.30	Marquise Goodwin	19.32
RB	Knowshon Moreno	7.90	Rashard Mendenhall	10.20
RB	Alfred Morris	9.30	Rashad Jennings	23.80
TE	Antonio Gates	13.20	Delanie Walker	20.10
W/R	Rashad Jennings	23.80	Dwayne Bowe	13.70
K	Justin Tucker	9.00	Justin Tucker	9.00
DEF	Seahawks	19.17	Seahawks	19.17

Carried by One Guy: Michael Floyd, 30.30 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.00 points left. Optimal 104.83 vs. actual 88.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	24.88	Matthew Stafford	24.88
WR	Marques Colston	10.50	Marques Colston	10.50
WR	DeSean Jackson	10.32	DeSean Jackson	10.32
WR	Mike Wallace	5.90	Mike Wallace	5.90
RB	Danny Woodhead	5.56	Stevan Ridley	8.80
RB	Stevan Ridley	8.80	Danny Woodhead	5.56
TE	Martellus Bennett	5.80	Martellus Bennett	5.80
W/R	DeAndre Hopkins	1.20	Joique Bell	17.20
K	Mason Crosby	8.00	Mason Crosby	8.00
DEF	Saints	7.87	Saints	7.87

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 24.88 points (28.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2013

Kev

98.29

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

131.43

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.74 points left. Optimal 126.03 vs. actual 98.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	16.10	Drew Brees	16.10
WR	Jordy Nelson	17.70	Dexter McCluster	8.46
WR	A.J. Green	1.70	Jacoby Jones	4.04
WR	Cecil Shorts	3.20	Jordy Nelson	17.70
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	11.50	Daniel Thomas	12.40
RB	Le'Veon Bell	10.80	Maurice Jones-Drew	11.50
TE	Rob Gronkowski	14.40	Rob Gronkowski	14.40
W/R	Percy Harvin	3.36	Donald Brown	21.90
K	Garrett Hartley	11.00	Garrett Hartley	11.00
DEF	Panthers	8.53	Panthers	8.53

Carried by One Guy: Jordy Nelson, 17.70 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.54 points left. Optimal 139.97 vs. actual 131.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	14.14	Tom Brady	14.14
WR	Vincent Jackson	29.50	Leonard Hankerson	1.00
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	0.70	Vincent Jackson	29.50
WR	Leonard Hankerson	1.00	Eddie Royal	3.24
RB	Fred Jackson	4.90	LeSean McCoy	29.00
RB	LeSean McCoy	29.00	Chris Ogbonnaya	10.90
TE	Jimmy Graham	7.10	Jimmy Graham	7.10
W/R	Ben Tate	13.70	Ben Tate	13.70
K	Nick Folk	2.00	Nick Folk	2.00
DEF	Bengals	29.39	Bengals	29.39

Carried by One Guy: Vincent Jackson, 29.50 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2013

Josh

100.57

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

117.33

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.84 points left. Optimal 102.41 vs. actual 100.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	14.16	Matt Ryan	14.16
WR	Demaryius Thomas	16.60	Demaryius Thomas	16.60
WR	T.Y. Hilton	7.20	T.Y. Hilton	7.20
WR	Aaron Dobson	5.80	Cordarrelle Patterson	7.64
RB	Darren Sproles	5.60	Darren Sproles	5.60
RB	Adrian Peterson	6.50	Adrian Peterson	6.50
TE	Rob Housler	10.00	Rob Housler	10.00
W/R	Harry Douglas	24.40	Harry Douglas	24.40
K	Nick Novak	10.00	Nick Novak	10.00
DEF	Jets	0.31	Jets	0.31

Carried by One Guy: Harry Douglas, 24.40 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ray Rice scored 24.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.00 points left. Optimal 135.33 vs. actual 117.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	22.62	Nick Foles	22.62
WR	Andre Johnson	18.60	Golden Tate	3.44
WR	Roddy White	9.10	Andre Johnson	18.60
WR	Golden Tate	3.44	Roddy White	9.10
RB	Frank Gore	6.60	Bryce Brown	4.00
RB	Andre Ellington	2.30	Frank Gore	6.60
TE	Jordan Reed	1.70	Charles Clay	18.00
W/R	Ray Rice	24.30	Ray Rice	24.30
K	Stephen Hauschka	12.00	Stephen Hauschka	12.00
DEF	Giants	16.67	Giants	16.67

Carried by One Guy: Ray Rice, 24.30 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2013

Demich

116.39

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

115.43

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.40 points left. Optimal 152.79 vs. actual 116.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	16.92	Peyton Manning	16.92
WR	Wes Welker	11.20	Rishard Matthews	7.20
WR	Marvin Jones Jr.	1.30	Jarrett Boykin	12.10
WR	Jarrett Boykin	12.10	Wes Welker	11.20
RB	Chris Johnson	20.90	Chris Ivory	15.80
RB	Chris Ivory	15.80	Chris Johnson	20.90
TE	Zach Miller	8.90	Zach Miller	8.90
W/R	Rishard Matthews	7.20	Bobby Rainey	37.70
K	Adam Vinatieri	15.00	Adam Vinatieri	15.00
DEF	Raiders	7.07	Raiders	7.07

Carried by One Guy: Chris Johnson, 20.90 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.67 points left. Optimal 140.10 vs. actual 115.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	18.60	Russell Wilson	18.60
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	15.10	Brandon LaFell	15.40
WR	Pierre Garcon	10.70	Victor Cruz	17.00
WR	Victor Cruz	17.00	Larry Fitzgerald	15.10
RB	Reggie Bush	4.40	Montee Ball	17.60
RB	Matt Forte	21.00	Matt Forte	21.00
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	5.20	Brandon Pettigrew	5.20
W/R	Jerricho Cotchery	12.30	Jerricho Cotchery	12.30
K	Stephen Gostkowski	8.00	Matt Bryant	10.00
DEF	Patriots	3.13	Texans	7.90

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Matt Forte, 21.00 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Chris Johnson scored 20.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	7–4	7.000	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Demich	7–4	6.091	+3.0	+0.273	2 / 2
Josh	4–7	5.273	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Aaron's Got a Gun	2–9	4.636	-7.5	-0.682	1 / 4
The Heisenburglers	6–5	4.909	-0.5	-0.045	2 / 1
Kev	5–6	5.636	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Joe Shore	8–3	6.000	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Fischer	2–9	3.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	6–5	5.364	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Horgan	7–4	5.636	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Big Hut	5–6	5.636	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	7–4	6.364	+2.5	+0.227	3 / 2

2013 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

The Heisenburglers lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11