2013 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2013

j-mart

156.26

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Adam

96.25

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.60 points left. Optimal 178.86 vs. actual 156.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	22.50	Aaron Rodgers	22.50
WR	Steve Smith	6.20	Eric Decker	6.20
WR	Calvin Johnson	45.90	Kenny Stills	28.80
WR	Eric Decker	6.20	Calvin Johnson	45.90
RB	Brian Leonard	6.90	Giovani Bernard	3.20
RB	Giovani Bernard	3.20	Brian Leonard	6.90
TE	Vernon Davis	12.70	Vernon Davis	12.70
W/R	Josh Gordon	23.70	Josh Gordon	23.70
K	Nick Folk	13.00	Nick Folk	13.00
DEF	Cardinals	15.96	Cardinals	15.96

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Johnson, 45.90 points (29.4% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.20 points left. Optimal 105.45 vs. actual 96.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	27.84	Cam Newton	27.84
WR	Anquan Boldin	7.60	Antonio Brown	13.84
WR	Brian Hartline	5.70	Anquan Boldin	7.60
WR	Antonio Brown	13.84	Brian Hartline	5.70
RB	Marshawn Lynch	3.20	Bilal Powell	5.90
RB	Zac Stacy	15.40	Zac Stacy	15.40
TE	Julius Thomas	4.40	Julius Thomas	4.40
W/R	Roy Helu	3.00	Chris Givens	9.50
K	Matt Prater	7.00	Matt Prater	7.00
DEF	Packers	8.27	Packers	8.27

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 27.84 points (28.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2013

Demich

115.09

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Fischer

117.73

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.56 points left. Optimal 136.65 vs. actual 115.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	23.86	Peyton Manning	23.86
WR	Jason Avant	6.90	Leonard Hankerson	7.20
WR	Leonard Hankerson	7.20	Jarrett Boykin	11.40
WR	Jarrett Boykin	11.40	Cordarrelle Patterson	15.16
RB	Knowshon Moreno	22.20	Mike James	8.40
RB	Mike James	8.40	Knowshon Moreno	22.20
TE	Jason Witten	2.50	Jason Witten	2.50
W/R	Chris Ivory	1.10	Mike Tolbert	14.40
K	Graham Gano	6.00	Graham Gano	6.00
DEF	Bengals	25.53	Bengals	25.53

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Bengals, 25.53 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matthew Stafford scored 28.72; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.50 points left. Optimal 118.23 vs. actual 117.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	28.72	Matthew Stafford	28.72
WR	Marques Colston	3.30	DeSean Jackson	10.30
WR	DeSean Jackson	10.30	Stevie Johnson	16.70
WR	Mike Wallace	6.40	Mike Wallace	6.40
RB	Joique Bell	11.90	Joique Bell	11.90
RB	Stevan Ridley	13.90	Stevan Ridley	13.90
TE	Joseph Fauria	0.00	Joseph Fauria	0.00
W/R	Stevie Johnson	16.70	Willis McGahee	3.80
K	Mason Crosby	14.00	Mason Crosby	14.00
DEF	Saints	12.51	Saints	12.51

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 28.72 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2013

Josh

93.05

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

106.55

Rank 7; +0.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.20 points left. Optimal 94.25 vs. actual 93.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	11.34	Matt Ryan	11.34
WR	Harry Douglas	20.10	Aaron Dobson	14.00
WR	Hakeem Nicks	8.60	Harry Douglas	20.10
WR	Aaron Dobson	14.00	Hakeem Nicks	8.60
RB	Darren Sproles	3.02	Darren Sproles	3.02
RB	Adrian Peterson	15.80	Adrian Peterson	15.80
TE	Jeff Cumberland	1.40	Jeff Cumberland	1.40
W/R	Riley Cooper	2.30	Tashard Choice	3.50
K	Dan Bailey	17.00	Dan Bailey	17.00
DEF	Jets	-0.51	Jets	-0.51

Carried by One Guy: Harry Douglas, 20.10 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dez Bryant scored 20.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.46 points left. Optimal 122.01 vs. actual 106.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Michael Vick	-0.70	Tom Brady	7.14
WR	Vincent Jackson	10.40	Dez Bryant	20.80
WR	Dez Bryant	20.80	Emmanuel Sanders	20.30
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	20.30	Vincent Jackson	10.40
RB	Fred Jackson	12.30	Fred Jackson	12.30
RB	LeSean McCoy	8.50	LeSean McCoy	8.50
TE	Jimmy Graham	17.20	Jimmy Graham	17.20
W/R	Jacquizz Rodgers	3.98	DeAngelo Williams	11.60
K	Alex Henery	1.00	Alex Henery	1.00
DEF	49ers	12.77	49ers	12.77

Carried by One Guy: Dez Bryant, 20.80 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2013

Aaron's Got a Gun

117.44

Rank 5; -1.5 luck points

Kev

149.59

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.58 points left. Optimal 147.02 vs. actual 117.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	20.84	Tony Romo	20.84
WR	Demaryius Thomas	17.00	Demaryius Thomas	17.00
WR	Kris Durham	7.40	Golden Tate	23.98
WR	Kenbrell Thompkins	0.00	Kris Durham	7.40
RB	Lamar Miller	12.70	Lamar Miller	12.70
RB	Andre Ellington	25.20	Andre Ellington	25.20
TE	Tony Gonzalez	4.10	Tony Gonzalez	4.10
W/R	Steven Jackson	2.80	Kendall Hunter	8.40
K	Matt Bryant	6.00	Matt Bryant	6.00
DEF	Broncos	21.40	Broncos	21.40

Carried by One Guy: Andre Ellington, 25.20 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drew Brees scored 35.18; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.90 points left. Optimal 155.49 vs. actual 149.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	35.18	Drew Brees	35.18
WR	Jordy Nelson	29.80	A.J. Green	15.00
WR	A.J. Green	15.00	Cecil Shorts	10.90
WR	Cecil Shorts	10.90	Jordy Nelson	29.80
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	15.20	Le'Veon Bell	13.60
RB	Le'Veon Bell	13.60	Maurice Jones-Drew	15.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	3.70	Greg Olsen	9.60
W/R	Daniel Thomas	11.70	Daniel Thomas	11.70
K	Garrett Hartley	5.00	Garrett Hartley	5.00
DEF	Panthers	9.51	Panthers	9.51

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 35.18 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2013

Horgan

106.28

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

117.85

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.60 points left. Optimal 114.88 vs. actual 106.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Colin Kaepernick	27.96	Colin Kaepernick	27.96
WR	Greg Jennings	1.40	Rod Streater	6.50
WR	Rod Streater	6.50	Terrance Williams	13.90
WR	Terrance Williams	13.90	Ted Ginn Jr.	11.52
RB	Frank Gore	18.20	Joseph Randle	5.90
RB	Joseph Randle	5.90	Frank Gore	18.20
TE	Jordan Reed	13.00	Jordan Reed	13.00
W/R	Ted Ginn Jr.	11.52	Peyton Hillis	10.00
K	Stephen Hauschka	2.00	Stephen Hauschka	2.00
DEF	Chiefs	5.90	Chiefs	5.90

Carried by One Guy: Colin Kaepernick, 27.96 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Reggie Bush scored 20.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.84 points left. Optimal 135.69 vs. actual 117.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	15.16	Andy Dalton	33.00
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	12.80	Victor Cruz	12.10
WR	Pierre Garcon	8.10	Larry Fitzgerald	12.80
WR	Victor Cruz	12.10	Pierre Garcon	8.10
RB	Reggie Bush	20.20	Montee Ball	9.80
RB	Montee Ball	9.80	Reggie Bush	20.20
TE	Kyle Rudolph	7.10	Kyle Rudolph	7.10
W/R	Justin Blackmon	5.00	Justin Blackmon	5.00
K	Stephen Gostkowski	10.00	Stephen Gostkowski	10.00
DEF	Patriots	17.59	Patriots	17.59

Carried by One Guy: Reggie Bush, 20.20 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2013

The Heisenburglers

84.37

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller

105.62

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.20 points left. Optimal 123.57 vs. actual 84.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	3.98	Robert Griffin III	3.98
WR	Wes Welker	17.10	Michael Floyd	10.50
WR	Danny Amendola	3.00	Marvin Jones Jr.	42.20
WR	Michael Floyd	10.50	Wes Welker	17.10
RB	Alfred Morris	15.30	Alfred Morris	15.30
RB	Brandon Bolden	9.90	Brandon Bolden	9.90
TE	Tyler Eifert	3.30	Tyler Eifert	3.30
W/R	Denarius Moore	4.20	Denarius Moore	4.20
K	David Akers	6.00	David Akers	6.00
DEF	Seahawks	11.09	Seahawks	11.09

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Wes Welker, 17.10 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.70 points left. Optimal 107.32 vs. actual 105.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	11.10	Ben Roethlisberger	11.10
WR	Lance Moore	10.90	Doug Baldwin	1.70
WR	Sidney Rice	0.00	Stephen Hill	4.30
WR	Stephen Hill	4.30	Lance Moore	10.90
RB	Jamaal Charles	14.50	Eddie Lacy	19.20
RB	Eddie Lacy	19.20	Jamaal Charles	14.50
TE	Jordan Cameron	10.10	Jordan Cameron	10.10
W/R	Darren McFadden	20.80	Darren McFadden	20.80
K	Phil Dawson	6.00	Phil Dawson	6.00
DEF	Steelers	8.72	Steelers	8.72

Carried by One Guy: Darren McFadden, 20.80 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–3	5.818	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Demich	5–3	5.182	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 2
Josh	3–5	3.273	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Aaron's Got a Gun	1–7	3.636	-7.5	-0.682	1 / 4
The Heisenburglers	4–4	2.545	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
Kev	3–5	3.636	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Joe Shore	6–2	4.273	+0.5	+0.045	1 / 0
Fischer	2–6	3.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	4–4	3.455	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Horgan	4–4	4.091	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Big Hut	5–3	4.545	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	6–2	4.545	+6.0	+0.545	3 / 1

2013 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

The Heisenburglers lineup

Miller lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8