2013 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2013

j-mart

145.80

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Josh

104.16

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.20 points left. Optimal 147.00 vs. actual 145.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	12.48	Philip Rivers	12.48
WR	Steve Smith	6.60	Eric Decker	47.40
WR	Eric Decker	47.40	Keenan Allen	14.60
WR	Keenan Allen	14.60	Michael Crabtree	7.80
RB	Ray Rice	10.00	Giovani Bernard	7.10
RB	Giovani Bernard	7.10	Ray Rice	10.00
TE	Vernon Davis	16.20	Vernon Davis	16.20
W/R	Calvin Johnson	21.10	Calvin Johnson	21.10
K	David Akers	7.00	David Akers	7.00
DEF	Ravens	3.32	Ravens	3.32

Carried by One Guy: Eric Decker, 47.40 points (32.5% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.46 points left. Optimal 106.62 vs. actual 104.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	18.14	Matt Ryan	18.14
WR	Demaryius Thomas	14.10	Demaryius Thomas	14.10
WR	T.Y. Hilton	7.10	T.Y. Hilton	7.10
WR	Cordarrelle Patterson	9.60	Cordarrelle Patterson	9.60
RB	Darren Sproles	7.80	Darren Sproles	7.80
RB	Adrian Peterson	24.10	Adrian Peterson	24.10
TE	Rob Housler	3.60	Rob Housler	3.60
W/R	Harry Douglas	10.30	Harry Douglas	10.30
K	Dan Bailey	5.00	Dan Bailey	5.00
DEF	Jets	4.42	Cowboys	6.88

Carried by One Guy: Adrian Peterson, 24.10 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Eric Decker scored 47.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2013

Kev

136.19

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Adam

126.64

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.36 points left. Optimal 144.55 vs. actual 136.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	7.78	Drew Brees	7.78
WR	Jordy Nelson	2.40	A.J. Green	16.80
WR	A.J. Green	16.80	Cecil Shorts	15.40
WR	Cecil Shorts	15.40	Jacoby Jones	10.76
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	13.42	Le'Veon Bell	23.10
RB	Le'Veon Bell	23.10	Maurice Jones-Drew	13.42
TE	Rob Gronkowski	23.70	Rob Gronkowski	23.70
W/R	Shane Vereen	16.00	Shane Vereen	16.00
K	Garrett Hartley	1.00	Garrett Hartley	1.00
DEF	Panthers	16.59	Panthers	16.59

Carried by One Guy: Rob Gronkowski, 23.70 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.68 points left. Optimal 132.32 vs. actual 126.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	27.32	Cam Newton	27.32
WR	Anquan Boldin	14.30	Antonio Brown	8.40
WR	Brian Hartline	25.20	Anquan Boldin	14.30
WR	Antonio Brown	8.40	Brian Hartline	25.20
RB	Andre Brown	19.30	Zac Stacy	7.60
RB	Zac Stacy	7.60	Andre Brown	19.30
TE	Coby Fleener	6.50	Coby Fleener	6.50
W/R	Marshawn Lynch	7.20	Ted Ginn Jr.	12.88
K	Matt Prater	5.00	Matt Prater	5.00
DEF	Cardinals	5.82	Cardinals	5.82

Carried by One Guy: Cam Newton, 27.32 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Rob Gronkowski scored 23.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2013

Joe Shore

158.69

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

129.84

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.72 points left. Optimal 161.41 vs. actual 158.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	22.84	Tom Brady	22.84
WR	Vincent Jackson	9.00	Dez Bryant	15.60
WR	Dez Bryant	15.60	Emmanuel Sanders	14.26
WR	Emmanuel Sanders	14.26	Ace Sanders	11.72
RB	Fred Jackson	21.80	Fred Jackson	21.80
RB	LeSean McCoy	14.00	LeSean McCoy	14.00
TE	Jimmy Graham	11.70	Jimmy Graham	11.70
W/R	Ben Tate	30.20	Ben Tate	30.20
K	Caleb Sturgis	10.00	Caleb Sturgis	10.00
DEF	49ers	9.29	49ers	9.29

Carried by One Guy: Ben Tate, 30.20 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.96 points left. Optimal 156.80 vs. actual 129.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	22.00	Matthew Stafford	22.00
WR	DeSean Jackson	5.32	DeAndre Hopkins	8.70
WR	Mike Wallace	17.70	Mike Wallace	17.70
WR	Julian Edelman	16.82	Julian Edelman	16.82
RB	Danny Woodhead	4.82	Joique Bell	20.30
RB	DeMarco Murray	30.70	DeMarco Murray	30.70
TE	Martellus Bennett	2.40	Martellus Bennett	2.40
W/R	Stevie Johnson	6.00	Willis McGahee	14.10
K	Mason Crosby	6.00	Mason Crosby	6.00
DEF	Dolphins	18.08	Dolphins	18.08

Carried by One Guy: DeMarco Murray, 30.70 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ben Tate scored 30.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2013

The Heisenburglers

148.75

Rank 3; -3.5 luck points

Horgan

149.61

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.90 points left. Optimal 150.65 vs. actual 148.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	21.08	Robert Griffin III	21.08
WR	Torrey Smith	18.30	Torrey Smith	18.30
WR	Michael Floyd	18.40	Michael Floyd	18.40
WR	Rod Streater	7.20	Danny Amendola	7.90
RB	Knowshon Moreno	17.00	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	14.00
RB	Alfred Morris	12.80	Knowshon Moreno	17.00
TE	Antonio Gates	4.60	Antonio Gates	4.60
W/R	Rashad Jennings	16.80	Rashad Jennings	16.80
K	Justin Tucker	19.00	Justin Tucker	19.00
DEF	Seahawks	13.57	Seahawks	13.57

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Robert Griffin III, 21.08 points (14.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Gordon scored 45.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.42 points left. Optimal 154.03 vs. actual 149.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Nick Foles	23.68	Nick Foles	23.68
WR	Andre Johnson	18.10	Golden Tate	6.84
WR	Golden Tate	6.84	Josh Gordon	45.10
WR	Josh Gordon	45.10	Andre Johnson	18.10
RB	Frank Gore	9.90	Dennis Johnson	2.90
RB	Brandon Bolden	2.50	Frank Gore	9.90
TE	Logan Paulsen	11.60	Logan Paulsen	11.60
W/R	Roddy White	21.30	Roddy White	21.30
K	Stephen Hauschka	8.00	Stephen Hauschka	8.00
DEF	Browns	2.59	Chiefs	6.61

Carried by One Guy: Josh Gordon, 45.10 points (30.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2013

Aaron's Got a Gun

111.36

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

131.00

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.05 points left. Optimal 138.41 vs. actual 111.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh McCown	24.20	Josh McCown	24.20
WR	Donnie Avery	2.70	Riley Cooper	6.30
WR	Riley Cooper	6.30	Kris Durham	8.30
WR	Kendall Wright	10.70	Kendall Wright	10.70
RB	C.J. Spiller	24.70	C.J. Spiller	24.70
RB	Lamar Miller	9.00	Steven Jackson	20.90
TE	Tony Gonzalez	12.20	Tony Gonzalez	12.20
W/R	Ryan Mathews	11.70	Ryan Mathews	11.70
K	Robbie Gould	9.00	Robbie Gould	9.00
DEF	Broncos	0.86	Packers	10.41

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Spiller, 24.70 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Russell Wilson scored 31.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.50 points left. Optimal 159.50 vs. actual 131.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	31.10	Russell Wilson	31.10
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	15.70	Brandon LaFell	11.10
WR	Pierre Garcon	8.60	Victor Cruz	11.00
WR	Victor Cruz	11.00	Larry Fitzgerald	15.70
RB	Reggie Bush	26.70	Reggie Bush	26.70
RB	Matt Forte	18.10	Matt Forte	18.10
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	1.10	Brandon Myers	14.60
W/R	Kenbrell Thompkins	2.10	Montee Ball	14.60
K	Stephen Gostkowski	14.00	Stephen Gostkowski	14.00
DEF	Patriots	2.60	Patriots	2.60

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 31.10 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2013

Demich

107.84

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller

117.25

Rank 9; +2.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.74 points left. Optimal 120.58 vs. actual 107.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	33.82	Peyton Manning	33.82
WR	Nate Burleson	0.00	Rishard Matthews	3.10
WR	Wes Welker	5.40	Tavon Austin	7.04
WR	Jarrett Boykin	0.00	Wes Welker	5.40
RB	Chris Johnson	19.10	Bobby Rainey	8.10
RB	Bobby Rainey	8.10	Chris Johnson	19.10
TE	Jason Witten	6.80	Jason Witten	6.80
W/R	Chris Ivory	7.80	Mike Tolbert	10.40
K	Adam Vinatieri	20.00	Adam Vinatieri	20.00
DEF	Bills	6.82	Bills	6.82

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 33.82 points (31.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Alshon Jeffery scored 44.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.88 points left. Optimal 145.13 vs. actual 117.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	10.20	Ben Roethlisberger	19.38
WR	Brandon Marshall	6.50	Alshon Jeffery	44.90
WR	James Jones	9.40	Brandon Marshall	6.50
WR	Alshon Jeffery	44.90	James Jones	9.40
RB	Jamaal Charles	19.00	Eddie Lacy	4.90
RB	Eddie Lacy	4.90	Jamaal Charles	19.00
TE	Jordan Cameron	6.30	Jared Cook	6.40
W/R	Pierre Thomas	4.10	Doug Baldwin	15.70
K	Ryan Succop	4.00	Phil Dawson	11.00
DEF	Bears	7.95	Bears	7.95

Carried by One Guy: Alshon Jeffery, 44.90 points (38.3% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	8–5	7.727	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Demich	8–5	6.364	+6.5	+0.591	3 / 2
Josh	4–9	5.545	-2.0	-0.182	1 / 1
Aaron's Got a Gun	3–10	5.182	-6.0	-0.545	2 / 4
The Heisenburglers	6–7	6.182	-4.0	-0.364	2 / 2
Kev	7–6	7.091	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Joe Shore	9–4	7.636	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Fischer	2–11	4.636	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Adam	7–6	6.727	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Horgan	8–5	6.636	+1.0	+0.091	1 / 1
Big Hut	7–6	6.727	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	9–4	7.545	+5.0	+0.455	4 / 2

2013 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

The Heisenburglers lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Miller lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13