2013 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2013

j-mart

137.50

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev

103.55

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.32 points left. Optimal 157.82 vs. actual 137.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	15.76	Aaron Rodgers	15.76
WR	Steve Smith	8.00	Eric Decker	15.20
WR	Eric Decker	15.20	Rueben Randle	24.76
WR	Rueben Randle	24.76	Keenan Allen	22.92
RB	Trent Richardson	5.60	Giovani Bernard	5.90
RB	Giovani Bernard	5.90	Donald Brown	11.00
TE	Vernon Davis	16.30	Vernon Davis	16.30
W/R	Josh Gordon	16.60	Josh Gordon	16.60
K	Nick Novak	5.00	Nick Novak	5.00
DEF	Cardinals	24.38	Cardinals	24.38

Carried by One Guy: Rueben Randle, 24.76 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.40 points left. Optimal 118.95 vs. actual 103.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	19.32	Drew Brees	19.32
WR	Jordy Nelson	10.70	A.J. Green	8.60
WR	A.J. Green	8.60	Cecil Shorts	15.90
WR	Tavon Austin	5.00	Jordy Nelson	10.70
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	9.60	Daryl Richardson	4.80
RB	LeGarrette Blount	3.10	Maurice Jones-Drew	9.60
TE	Jared Cook	4.10	Scott Chandler	6.90
W/R	Robert Woods	8.90	Robert Woods	8.90
K	Garrett Hartley	14.00	Garrett Hartley	14.00
DEF	Browns	20.23	Browns	20.23

Carried by One Guy: Browns, 20.23 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2013

Demich

161.95

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

The Heisenburglers

94.13

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.93 points left. Optimal 182.88 vs. actual 161.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	37.76	Peyton Manning	37.76
WR	Nate Washington	4.50	Julio Jones	13.90
WR	Julio Jones	13.90	Torrey Smith	17.10
WR	Torrey Smith	17.10	Nate Washington	4.50
RB	Rashad Jennings	4.10	Jacquizz Rodgers	20.26
RB	Arian Foster	13.80	Arian Foster	13.80
TE	Jason Witten	23.60	Jason Witten	23.60
W/R	Knowshon Moreno	23.50	Knowshon Moreno	23.50
K	Ryan Succop	13.00	Ryan Succop	13.00
DEF	Panthers	10.69	Bengals	15.46

Carried by One Guy: Peyton Manning, 37.76 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

The Heisenburglers lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.68 points left. Optimal 121.81 vs. actual 94.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Michael Vick	12.10	Michael Vick	12.10
WR	Wes Welker	13.40	Austin Pettis	18.90
WR	Sidney Rice	1.30	Rod Streater	13.10
WR	Michael Floyd	8.60	Wes Welker	13.40
RB	Jason Snelling	10.80	Chris Johnson	16.00
RB	Chris Johnson	16.00	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	12.70
TE	Antonio Gates	10.90	Antonio Gates	10.90
W/R	Danny Amendola	7.50	Ted Ginn Jr.	11.18
K	Matt Bryant	4.00	Matt Bryant	4.00
DEF	Seahawks	9.53	Seahawks	9.53

Carried by One Guy: Chris Johnson, 16.00 points (17.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2013

Josh

167.91

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Aaron's Got a Gun

116.80

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.20 points left. Optimal 169.11 vs. actual 167.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	20.76	Matt Ryan	20.76
WR	DeSean Jackson	24.70	Vincent Brown	17.20
WR	Mike Wallace	16.00	T.Y. Hilton	30.50
WR	T.Y. Hilton	30.50	DeSean Jackson	24.70
RB	Darren Sproles	6.40	David Wilson	7.92
RB	David Wilson	7.92	Darren Sproles	6.40
TE	Owen Daniels	9.00	Owen Daniels	9.00
W/R	Alshon Jeffery	34.80	Alshon Jeffery	34.80
K	Dan Bailey	12.00	Dan Bailey	12.00
DEF	Jets	5.83	Jets	5.83

Carried by One Guy: Alshon Jeffery, 34.80 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.70 points left. Optimal 126.50 vs. actual 116.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	42.94	Tony Romo	42.94
WR	Anquan Boldin	3.10	Golden Tate	15.24
WR	Donnie Avery	10.60	Kendall Wright	10.40
WR	Golden Tate	15.24	Donnie Avery	10.60
RB	Marshawn Lynch	13.20	Bilal Powell	5.20
RB	Bilal Powell	5.20	Marshawn Lynch	13.20
TE	Tony Gonzalez	14.70	Tony Gonzalez	14.70
W/R	Jason Avant	4.80	Marcel Reece	7.20
K	Robbie Gould	3.00	Robbie Gould	3.00
DEF	Broncos	4.02	Broncos	4.02

Carried by One Guy: Tony Romo, 42.94 points (36.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2013

Fischer

117.24

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

140.61

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.80 points left. Optimal 118.04 vs. actual 117.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	14.38	Matthew Stafford	14.38
WR	Marques Colston	2.50	DeAndre Hopkins	3.30
WR	Hakeem Nicks	20.70	Hakeem Nicks	20.70
WR	Julian Edelman	6.06	Julian Edelman	6.06
RB	Willis McGahee	13.20	DeMarco Murray	11.30
RB	DeMarco Murray	11.30	Willis McGahee	13.20
TE	Sean McGrath	7.40	Sean McGrath	7.40
W/R	Fred Jackson	23.30	Fred Jackson	23.30
K	Caleb Sturgis	11.00	Caleb Sturgis	11.00
DEF	Saints	7.40	Saints	7.40

Carried by One Guy: Fred Jackson, 23.30 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Terrance Williams scored 27.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.20 points left. Optimal 152.81 vs. actual 140.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	17.36	Eli Manning	17.36
WR	Reggie Wayne	11.50	Terrance Williams	27.30
WR	Andre Johnson	5.40	Reggie Wayne	11.50
WR	Terrance Williams	27.30	Andre Johnson	5.40
RB	Frank Gore	14.10	Frank Gore	14.10
RB	Ray Rice	23.20	Ray Rice	23.20
TE	Jermichael Finley	6.20	Charles Clay	12.70
W/R	Ryan Mathews	0.80	Roddy White	6.50
K	Stephen Hauschka	17.00	Stephen Hauschka	17.00
DEF	Chiefs	17.75	Chiefs	17.75

Carried by One Guy: Terrance Williams, 27.30 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2013

Joe Shore

126.86

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

92.23

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.13 points left. Optimal 165.99 vs. actual 126.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	5.88	Jay Cutler	25.02
WR	Dwayne Bowe	5.50	Dez Bryant	29.10
WR	Dez Bryant	29.10	Denarius Moore	16.90
WR	Denarius Moore	16.90	Dwayne Bowe	5.50
RB	DeAngelo Williams	7.90	DeAngelo Williams	7.90
RB	LeSean McCoy	18.20	LeSean McCoy	18.20
TE	Jimmy Graham	20.50	Jimmy Graham	20.50
W/R	Kenbrell Thompkins	3.10	Andre Ellington	10.30
K	Greg Zuerlein	10.00	Greg Zuerlein	10.00
DEF	Ravens	9.78	49ers	22.57

Carried by One Guy: Dez Bryant, 29.10 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.30 points left. Optimal 110.53 vs. actual 92.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	24.60	Russell Wilson	24.60
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	5.80	Brandon LaFell	6.70
WR	Brandon LaFell	6.70	Victor Cruz	7.30
WR	Victor Cruz	7.30	Justin Blackmon	24.10
RB	Reggie Bush	8.90	Reggie Bush	8.90
RB	Matt Forte	13.50	Matt Forte	13.50
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	7.90	Brandon Pettigrew	7.90
W/R	Jeremy Kerley	15.88	Jeremy Kerley	15.88
K	Stephen Gostkowski	5.00	Stephen Gostkowski	5.00
DEF	Giants	-3.35	Giants	-3.35

Carried by One Guy: Russell Wilson, 24.60 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2013

Adam

130.05

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Miller

121.14

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.90 points left. Optimal 136.95 vs. actual 130.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Philip Rivers	20.44	Philip Rivers	20.44
WR	Brian Hartline	8.00	Demaryius Thomas	8.20
WR	Demaryius Thomas	8.20	Randall Cobb	12.84
WR	Randall Cobb	12.84	Brian Hartline	8.00
RB	C.J. Spiller	12.60	C.J. Spiller	12.60
RB	Lamar Miller	1.50	Ronnie Hillman	7.90
TE	Julius Thomas	30.70	Julius Thomas	30.70
W/R	Eddie Royal	2.10	Chris Givens	2.60
K	Matt Prater	17.00	Matt Prater	17.00
DEF	Rams	16.67	Rams	16.67

Carried by One Guy: Julius Thomas, 30.70 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.92 points left. Optimal 152.06 vs. actual 121.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andrew Luck	18.06	Sam Bradford	21.28
WR	Brandon Marshall	11.00	Doug Baldwin	10.50
WR	James Jones	22.70	Brandon Marshall	11.00
WR	Davone Bess	3.50	James Jones	22.70
RB	Jamaal Charles	23.00	Pierre Thomas	25.60
RB	Eddie Lacy	10.20	Jamaal Charles	23.00
TE	Jordan Cameron	5.10	Greg Olsen	10.40
W/R	Danny Woodhead	16.92	Danny Woodhead	16.92
K	Phil Dawson	9.00	Phil Dawson	9.00
DEF	Bears	1.66	Bears	1.66

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jamaal Charles, 23.00 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Julius Thomas scored 30.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–3	3.000	-2.5	-0.227	0 / 1
Demich	4–1	4.182	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Josh	2–3	2.364	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Aaron's Got a Gun	1–4	2.273	-3.5	-0.318	1 / 2
The Heisenburglers	3–2	1.727	+1.5	+0.136	1 / 0
Kev	1–4	1.909	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Joe Shore	4–1	3.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–4	2.182	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	4–1	2.455	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
Horgan	2–3	2.182	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Big Hut	2–3	2.091	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	4–1	2.545	+7.0	+0.636	2 / 0

2013 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

The Heisenburglers lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Aaron's Got a Gun lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Miller lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5