2012 season ledger
Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.
Actual and all-play standings
All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.
| Manager | W–L | PF | Expected wins | Luck points | Luck in wins | Lucky | Unlucky | All-play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Big Tebowskis | 9–4 | 1642.64 | 8.091 | +1.5 | +0.136 | 2 | 1 | 62.2% |
| j-mart | 9–4 | 1621.08 | 8.000 | +1.0 | +0.091 | 2 | 2 | 61.5% |
| Josh | 8–5 | 1600.74 | 7.273 | +2.5 | +0.227 | 3 | 2 | 55.9% |
| Early Morning Doucet | 8–5 | 1424.08 | 5.818 | +2.0 | +0.182 | 3 | 1 | 44.8% |
| Kev | 7–6 | 1751.97 | 9.364 | -6.5 | -0.591 | 0 | 3 | 72.0% |
| Fischer | 7–6 | 1532.61 | 6.636 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 2 | 2 | 51.0% |
| Multiple Gore-Gasms | 6–7 | 1498.30 | 6.545 | -2.5 | -0.227 | 0 | 3 | 50.3% |
| zyg | 6–7 | 1486.99 | 5.636 | +5.5 | +0.500 | 3 | 2 | 43.4% |
| Demich | 6–7 | 1404.77 | 4.636 | +2.0 | +0.182 | 2 | 0 | 35.7% |
| SuckMyVick | 5–8 | 1469.21 | 5.818 | +4.5 | +0.409 | 3 | 2 | 44.8% |
| Big Hut | 4–9 | 1538.81 | 6.364 | -6.0 | -0.545 | 1 | 3 | 49.0% |
| Horgan | 3–10 | 1318.49 | 3.818 | -2.0 | -0.182 | 1 | 1 | 29.4% |
All-play order
- Kev — 9.364 expected wins; 103–40–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- The Big Tebowskis — 8.091 expected wins; 89–54–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- j-mart — 8.000 expected wins; 88–55–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Josh — 7.273 expected wins; 80–63–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Fischer — 6.636 expected wins; 73–70–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Multiple Gore-Gasms — 6.545 expected wins; 72–71–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Big Hut — 6.364 expected wins; 70–73–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- SuckMyVick — 5.818 expected wins; 64–79–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Early Morning Doucet — 5.818 expected wins; 64–79–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- zyg — 5.636 expected wins; 62–81–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Demich — 4.636 expected wins; 51–92–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Horgan — 3.818 expected wins; 42–101–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Latest weekly receipts
All exact ties share the award.
Robbery of the Week
- KevRank 2, 143.32 points, lost by 16.91. Open matchup
Get Out of Jail Free
- j-martRank 9, 106.26 points, won by 4.28. Open matchup
Cumulative luck in wins
Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.14 | +0.09 |
| Big Hut | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | 0.00 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.55 | -0.55 | -0.55 | -0.55 |
| Horgan | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.32 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 |
| Multiple Gore-Gasms | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.18 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 |
| Fischer | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.14 | -0.14 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Demich | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.18 |
| zyg | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.05 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Kev | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.59 |
| Josh | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.27 | +0.50 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.23 |
| The Big Tebowskis | 0.00 | -0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 |
| SuckMyVick | +0.05 | +0.05 | -0.18 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Early Morning Doucet | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.36 | +0.36 | +0.41 | +0.41 | +0.41 | +0.18 |
Schedule Swap
Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.
| Source team | Best owner | Record | Worst owner | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Early Morning Doucet | 11–2 (+2.0) | SuckMyVick | 6–7 (-3.0) |
| Big Hut | Early Morning Doucet | 9–4 (+5.0) | Kev | 2–11 (-2.0) |
| Horgan | Early Morning Doucet | 6–7 (+3.0) | Kev | 1–12 (-2.0) |
| Multiple Gore-Gasms | Horgan | 9–4 (+3.0) | Big Hut | 3–10 (-3.0) |
| Fischer | Demich | 9–4 (+2.0) | Josh | 4–9 (-3.0) |
| Demich | j-mart | 6–7 (0.0) | The Big Tebowskis | 3–10 (-3.0) |
| zyg | Early Morning Doucet | 8–5 (+2.0) | Big Hut | 3–10 (-3.0) |
| Kev | j-mart | 11–2 (+4.0) | Big Hut | 7–6 (0.0) |
| Josh | j-mart | 10–3 (+2.0) | zyg | 5–8 (-3.0) |
| The Big Tebowskis | Josh | 12–1 (+3.0) | Big Hut | 6–7 (-3.0) |
| SuckMyVick | Early Morning Doucet | 8–5 (+3.0) | Big Hut | 2–11 (-3.0) |
| Early Morning Doucet | j-mart | 8–5 (0.0) | Big Hut | 2–11 (-6.0) |
Everybody's Super Bowl
Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.
| Manager | Mean excess | Meetings | Largest receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | -4.05 pts | 13 | Big Hut: +39.60 pts |
| Big Hut | +19.23 pts | 13 | Early Morning Doucet: +54.82 pts |
| Horgan | -9.17 pts | 13 | Kev: +24.58 pts |
| Multiple Gore-Gasms | +2.27 pts | 13 | Kev: +36.03 pts |
| Fischer | -3.17 pts | 13 | j-mart: +38.76 pts |
| Demich | -8.08 pts | 13 | j-mart: +39.70 pts |
| zyg | +6.67 pts | 13 | Demich: +57.37 pts |
| Kev | +15.27 pts | 13 | Demich: +57.11 pts |
| Josh | -8.21 pts | 13 | The Big Tebowskis: +26.48 pts |
| The Big Tebowskis | +3.36 pts | 13 | Big Hut: +44.80 pts |
| SuckMyVick | -0.14 pts | 13 | zyg: +46.30 pts |
| Early Morning Doucet | -13.99 pts | 13 | Big Hut: +24.88 pts |
Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row
Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.
| Manager | Difficulty | Games | PA/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 40.8% | 13 | 111.80 |
| Big Hut | 72.3% | 13 | 134.88 |
| Horgan | 41.5% | 13 | 110.24 |
| Multiple Gore-Gasms | 50.0% | 13 | 119.87 |
| Fischer | 44.6% | 13 | 115.42 |
| Demich | 39.2% | 13 | 112.29 |
| zyg | 61.5% | 13 | 124.38 |
| Kev | 71.5% | 13 | 129.07 |
| Josh | 39.2% | 13 | 108.56 |
| The Big Tebowskis | 56.9% | 13 | 119.54 |
| SuckMyVick | 51.5% | 13 | 116.06 |
| Early Morning Doucet | 30.8% | 13 | 104.79 |
Heart Attack Club
A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.
| Manager | Close record | Games | Win-credit rate | Closest win | Closest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 4.28 | None |
| Big Hut | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 1.32 |
| Horgan | 0–2 | 2 | 0.0% | None | 3.37 |
| Multiple Gore-Gasms | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 4.09 | 4.52 |
| Fischer | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Demich | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 3.72 | None |
| zyg | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 4.52 | None |
| Kev | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 3.72 |
| Josh | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| The Big Tebowskis | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.32 | None |
| SuckMyVick | 0–2 | 2 | 0.0% | None | 2.64 |
| Early Morning Doucet | 2–0 | 2 | 100.0% | 2.64 | None |
Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent
Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.
| Manager | Actual | All-play | Gap | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 69.2% | 61.5% | +7.7 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Big Hut | 30.8% | 49.0% | -18.2 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Horgan | 23.1% | 29.4% | -6.3 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Multiple Gore-Gasms | 46.2% | 50.3% | -4.2 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Fischer | 53.8% | 51.0% | +2.8 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Demich | 46.2% | 35.7% | +10.5 pp | Paper Tiger |
| zyg | 46.2% | 43.4% | +2.8 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Kev | 53.8% | 72.0% | -18.2 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Josh | 61.5% | 55.9% | +5.6 pp | Paper Tiger |
| The Big Tebowskis | 69.2% | 62.2% | +7.0 pp | Paper Tiger |
| SuckMyVick | 38.5% | 44.8% | -6.3 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Early Morning Doucet | 61.5% | 44.8% | +16.8 pp | Paper Tiger |
The Roller Coaster
Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.
| Manager | Volatility | Mean percentile | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 27.4 pp | 61.5% | 13 |
| Big Hut | 30.8 pp | 49.0% | 13 |
| Horgan | 30.9 pp | 29.4% | 13 |
| Multiple Gore-Gasms | 27.5 pp | 50.3% | 13 |
| Fischer | 29.7 pp | 51.0% | 13 |
| Demich | 37.3 pp | 35.7% | 13 |
| zyg | 27.2 pp | 43.4% | 13 |
| Kev | 26.1 pp | 72.0% | 13 |
| Josh | 31.5 pp | 55.9% | 13 |
| The Big Tebowskis | 28.7 pp | 62.2% | 13 |
| SuckMyVick | 23.0 pp | 44.8% | 13 |
| Early Morning Doucet | 28.8 pp | 44.8% | 13 |
Nemesis / Has Their Number
Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.
| Manager | Nemesis | Record | Has Their Number | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Josh | 0–1 | Horgan | 2–0 |
| Big Hut | Multiple Gore-Gasms | 0–1 | SuckMyVick | 1–0 |
| Horgan | SuckMyVick | 0–2 | Demich | 1–0 |
| Multiple Gore-Gasms | j-mart | 0–1 | SuckMyVick | 2–0 |
| Fischer | Josh | 0–2 | The Big Tebowskis | 2–0 |
| Demich | j-mart | 0–1 | Kev | 2–0 |
| zyg | Demich | 0–1 | SuckMyVick | 1–0 |
| Kev | Demich | 0–2 | Multiple Gore-Gasms | 1–0 |
| Josh | SuckMyVick | 0–1 | Fischer | 2–0 |
| The Big Tebowskis | Fischer | 0–2 | Horgan | 1–0 |
| SuckMyVick | Multiple Gore-Gasms | 0–2 | Horgan | 2–0 |
| Early Morning Doucet | The Big Tebowskis | 0–1 | Demich | 1–0 |
Archived player statistics
Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.
Tinker Failures
League-wide superlative suppressed because coverage is incomplete. Available team-week receipts remain listed.
| Manager | Points left | Avoidable losses | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 156.64 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | 141.76 | 3 | |
| Horgan | 309.95 | 6 | |
| Multiple Gore-Gasms | 309.88 | 4 | |
| Fischer | 244.54 | 2 | |
| Demich | 193.20 | 3 | |
| zyg | 135.20 | 1 | |
| Kev | 200.64 | 3 | |
| Josh | 234.45 | 2 | |
| The Big Tebowskis | 229.30 | 2 | |
| SuckMyVick | 192.86 | 6 | |
| Early Morning Doucet | 177.40 | 2 |
Carried by One Guy
| Manager | Leading player | Share | Positive starter points | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Drew Brees | 15.7% | 1621.08 | |
| Big Hut | Matt Ryan | 14.9% | 1539.83 | |
| Horgan | Michael Turner | 10.2% | 1319.89 | 13 weeks |
| Multiple Gore-Gasms | Cam Newton | 13.5% | 1500.56 | |
| Fischer | Ray Rice | 13.3% | 1532.61 | |
| Demich | Tony Romo | 14.1% | 1404.97 | |
| zyg | Wes Welker | 12.6% | 1486.99 | 13 weeks
|
| Kev | Matthew Stafford | 13.4% | 1751.97 | 13 weeks
|
| Josh | Tom Brady | 16.7% | 1600.92 | |
| The Big Tebowskis | Peyton Manning | 15.2% | 1642.64 | |
| SuckMyVick | Bears | 12.5% | 1470.61 | |
| Early Morning Doucet | Aaron Rodgers | 17.6% | 1425.77 | 13 weeks
|
Opponent's Final Boss
| Manager | Leading opponent | Damage | Leader encounters | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Vincent Jackson | 83.26 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | Cowboys | 213.80 | 1 | |
| Horgan | Aaron Rodgers | 245.82 | 1 | |
| Multiple Gore-Gasms | Aaron Rodgers | 142.50 | 1 | |
| Fischer | Tom Brady | 121.84 | 2 | |
| Demich | Mikel Leshoure | 119.21 | 1 | |
| zyg | C.J. Spiller | 39.40 | 1 | |
| Kev | Tony Romo | 176.50 | 2 | |
| Josh | Jordy Nelson | 144.09 | 1 | |
| The Big Tebowskis | Victor Cruz | 49.86 | 2 | |
| SuckMyVick | Cam Newton | 309.51 | 2 | |
| Early Morning Doucet | Robert Griffin III | 73.67 | 1 |
Postseason scorecards
Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.