2012 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 23 – 29, 2012

j-mart

82.37

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Josh

159.39

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.10 points left. Optimal 91.47 vs. actual 82.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Brees	14.72	Drew Brees	14.72
WR	Reggie Wayne	12.60	Antonio Brown	6.30
WR	Antonio Brown	6.30	Randall Cobb	12.44
WR	Randall Cobb	12.44	Reggie Wayne	12.60
RB	Ahmad Bradshaw	5.80	Ahmad Bradshaw	5.80
RB	Jamaal Charles	2.50	Shonn Greene	11.60
TE	Heath Miller	12.60	Heath Miller	12.60
W/R	Roddy White	5.30	Roddy White	5.30
K	Blair Walsh	7.00	Blair Walsh	7.00
DEF	Chiefs	3.11	Chiefs	3.11

Carried by One Guy: Drew Brees, 14.72 points (17.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.80 points left. Optimal 162.19 vs. actual 159.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tom Brady	30.46	Tom Brady	30.46
WR	Steve Smith	17.30	Eric Decker	18.30
WR	Eric Decker	18.30	Chris Givens	14.76
WR	Chris Givens	14.76	Steve Smith	17.30
RB	Jonathan Stewart	10.00	Daryl Richardson	7.00
RB	Alfred Morris	5.90	Jonathan Stewart	10.00
TE	Jimmy Graham	14.80	Jimmy Graham	14.80
W/R	Daryl Richardson	7.00	Justin Blackmon	8.70
K	Lawrence Tynes	18.00	Lawrence Tynes	18.00
DEF	Giants	22.87	Giants	22.87

Carried by One Guy: Tom Brady, 30.46 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 23 – 29, 2012

Big Hut

123.43

Rank 4; -2.5 luck points

Kev

135.73

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.60 points left. Optimal 137.03 vs. actual 123.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matt Ryan	24.28	Matt Ryan	24.28
WR	Santana Moss	10.10	Demaryius Thomas	25.20
WR	Devery Henderson	0.00	Santana Moss	10.10
WR	Calvin Johnson	6.10	Calvin Johnson	6.10
RB	Steven Jackson	5.50	Jacquizz Rodgers	11.10
RB	Doug Martin	36.90	Doug Martin	36.90
TE	Fred Davis	0.00	Fred Davis	0.00
W/R	Demaryius Thomas	25.20	Donald Brown	8.00
K	Mason Crosby	5.00	Mason Crosby	5.00
DEF	Patriots	10.35	Patriots	10.35

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Doug Martin, 36.90 points (29.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Matthew Stafford scored 33.28; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.70 points left. Optimal 158.43 vs. actual 135.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	33.28	Matthew Stafford	33.28
WR	Vincent Jackson	5.00	Cecil Shorts	17.60
WR	Brandon Marshall	14.30	Denarius Moore	18.10
WR	Dwayne Bowe	8.00	Brandon Marshall	14.30
RB	Adrian Peterson	19.20	Adrian Peterson	19.20
RB	Marshawn Lynch	19.10	Marshawn Lynch	19.10
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	10.90	Brandon Pettigrew	10.90
W/R	Darren Sproles	14.98	Darren Sproles	14.98
K	Stephen Gostkowski	8.00	Stephen Gostkowski	8.00
DEF	Seahawks	2.97	Seahawks	2.97

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 33.28 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 23 – 29, 2012

Horgan

94.43

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

zyg

101.08

Rank 8; +1.5 luck points

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.30 points left. Optimal 105.73 vs. actual 94.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Freeman	22.38	Josh Freeman	22.38
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	7.70	Larry Fitzgerald	7.70
WR	DeSean Jackson	8.40	Sidney Rice	14.80
WR	Jeremy Kerley	6.80	DeSean Jackson	8.40
RB	Michael Turner	6.90	Alex Green	10.20
RB	Darren McFadden	17.70	Darren McFadden	17.70
TE	Antonio Gates	2.40	Antonio Gates	2.40
W/R	Jonathan Dwyer	14.00	Jonathan Dwyer	14.00
K	Jason Hanson	4.00	Jason Hanson	4.00
DEF	Cardinals	4.15	Cardinals	4.15

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Josh Freeman, 22.38 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Titus Young scored 28.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

zyg lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.20 points left. Optimal 104.28 vs. actual 101.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Robert Griffin III	11.88	Robert Griffin III	11.88
WR	Wes Welker	7.80	Titus Young	28.50
WR	Donnie Avery	6.20	Wes Welker	7.80
WR	Titus Young	28.50	Josh Morgan	8.00
RB	Matt Forte	17.90	Ryan Mathews	9.40
RB	Ryan Mathews	9.40	Matt Forte	17.90
TE	Tony Gonzalez	4.40	Jared Cook	6.00
W/R	Josh Morgan	8.00	Joique Bell	7.80
K	David Akers	7.00	David Akers	7.00
DEF	Texans	0.00	Texans	0.00

Carried by One Guy: Titus Young, 28.50 points (28.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 23 – 29, 2012

Multiple Gore-Gasms

108.60

Rank 6; -0.5 luck points

Demich

116.06

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.20 points left. Optimal 117.80 vs. actual 108.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Cam Newton	14.26	Cam Newton	14.26
WR	Miles Austin	19.80	Mike Williams	15.80
WR	James Jones	11.30	Miles Austin	19.80
WR	Hakeem Nicks	6.60	James Jones	11.30
RB	Frank Gore	7.10	Stevan Ridley	20.70
RB	Stevan Ridley	20.70	Frank Gore	7.10
TE	Brandon Myers	6.40	Brandon Myers	6.40
W/R	Chris Johnson	12.70	Chris Johnson	12.70
K	Matt Bryant	12.00	Matt Bryant	12.00
DEF	Vikings	-2.26	Vikings	-2.26

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Stevan Ridley, 20.70 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Willis McGahee scored 22.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.30 points left. Optimal 124.36 vs. actual 116.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tony Romo	21.48	Tony Romo	21.48
WR	Brandon Stokley	2.90	Dez Bryant	13.38
WR	Dez Bryant	13.38	Brandon LaFell	10.30
WR	Brandon LaFell	10.30	Ryan Broyles	11.20
RB	Willis McGahee	22.50	Willis McGahee	22.50
RB	Rashad Jennings	12.50	Rashad Jennings	12.50
TE	Vernon Davis	4.40	Vernon Davis	4.40
W/R	Ronnie Brown	13.70	Ronnie Brown	13.70
K	Greg Zuerlein	1.00	Greg Zuerlein	1.00
DEF	49ers	13.90	49ers	13.90

Carried by One Guy: Willis McGahee, 22.50 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 23 – 29, 2012

The Big Tebowskis

106.77

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

SuckMyVick

141.03

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

The Big Tebowskis lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.10 points left. Optimal 113.87 vs. actual 106.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Peyton Manning	26.60	Peyton Manning	26.60
WR	Davone Bess	4.80	Leonard Hankerson	2.10
WR	Percy Harvin	19.26	Davone Bess	4.80
WR	Leonard Hankerson	2.10	Percy Harvin	19.26
RB	Felix Jones	5.90	Felix Jones	5.90
RB	Andre Brown	8.10	Andre Brown	8.10
TE	Jason Witten	27.70	Jason Witten	27.70
W/R	Peyton Hillis	3.30	Shane Vereen	10.40
K	Robbie Gould	6.00	Robbie Gould	6.00
DEF	Jets	3.01	Jets	3.01

Carried by One Guy: Jason Witten, 27.70 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

SuckMyVick lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.32 points left. Optimal 165.35 vs. actual 141.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	21.48	Ben Roethlisberger	21.48
WR	Nate Washington	9.40	Julio Jones	23.70
WR	Julio Jones	23.70	Josh Gordon	6.10
WR	Josh Gordon	6.10	Nate Washington	9.40
RB	DeAngelo Williams	3.30	Vick Ballard	13.60
RB	LeSean McCoy	20.20	LeSean McCoy	20.20
TE	Rob Gronkowski	32.60	Rob Gronkowski	32.60
W/R	Darrius Heyward-Bey	9.70	Darrius Heyward-Bey	9.70
K	Garrett Hartley	2.00	Sebastian Janikowski	13.00
DEF	Bears	12.55	Packers	15.57

Carried by One Guy: Rob Gronkowski, 32.60 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 23 – 29, 2012

Fischer

79.89

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Early Morning Doucet

91.98

Rank 10; +3.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.90 points left. Optimal 87.79 vs. actual 79.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Eli Manning	5.98	Eli Manning	5.98
WR	Marques Colston	8.80	Randy Moss	11.20
WR	Michael Crabtree	22.50	Marques Colston	8.80
WR	Victor Cruz	3.30	Michael Crabtree	22.50
RB	Mikel Leshoure	7.00	Mikel Leshoure	7.00
RB	Daniel Thomas	11.00	Daniel Thomas	11.00
TE	Martellus Bennett	4.90	Martellus Bennett	4.90
W/R	Mario Manningham	4.00	Mario Manningham	4.00
K	Rob Bironas	7.00	Rob Bironas	7.00
DEF	Falcons	5.41	Falcons	5.41

Carried by One Guy: Michael Crabtree, 22.50 points (28.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Trent Richardson scored 21.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.84 points left. Optimal 104.82 vs. actual 91.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	13.84	Andrew Luck	16.68
WR	Brandon Lloyd	15.80	Andre Roberts	10.00
WR	Kenny Britt	4.90	Brandon Lloyd	15.80
WR	Mike Wallace	9.70	Mike Wallace	9.70
RB	Reggie Bush	5.00	Kendall Hunter	5.40
RB	Trent Richardson	21.90	Trent Richardson	21.90
TE	Jermichael Finley	3.40	Jermichael Finley	3.40
W/R	Stephen Hill	3.90	Danny Woodhead	8.40
K	Nick Folk	3.00	Nick Folk	3.00
DEF	Browns	10.54	Browns	10.54

Carried by One Guy: Trent Richardson, 21.90 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–2	5.364	-1.0	-0.091	1 / 1
Big Hut	1–7	2.636	-2.5	-0.227	1 / 2
Horgan	2–6	2.455	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Multiple Gore-Gasms	5–3	4.364	-0.5	-0.045	0 / 1
Fischer	4–4	4.364	-1.5	-0.136	0 / 1
Demich	4–4	2.636	+2.0	+0.182	2 / 0
zyg	2–6	3.273	-0.5	-0.045	1 / 2
Kev	5–3	5.818	-2.0	-0.182	0 / 2
Josh	4–4	4.182	+1.0	+0.091	2 / 2
The Big Tebowskis	5–3	4.818	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
SuckMyVick	4–4	4.273	+1.5	+0.136	2 / 1
Early Morning Doucet	6–2	3.818	+4.0	+0.364	2 / 0

2012 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Horgan lineup

zyg lineup

Regular

Multiple Gore-Gasms lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

The Big Tebowskis lineup

SuckMyVick lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Early Morning Doucet lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8